Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob - This is a very good analysis using all the long range tools availabe, however, I feel like the long range tools themselves (anything beyond 5 days) at least this year are no better than giving a 2 year old "L" and "H" stickers and having them place them on a global map wherever they please. Both might nail a few features out of pure luck. No doubt. As Ian said, it's mushy at best. But there is definitely room for some intuition. That's what makes it fun for me. Dominant patterns can never be overlooked regardless of what models show in the lr. We've been taught that lesson (for better or worse) time and time again. I could have made my post much shorter but colorful attachments make it look much more believable. LOL. My takeaways from my thoughts this morning are actually simple and concise: 1. -pna pattern broke down and there appears to be a tendency for the west coast ridge to keep re-establishing 2. PV moved over here and they don't disappear very quickly at all. It could wobble all over canada for a long time 3. -AO dominant winter is already locked. Just hedging on it staying the course until proven otherwise 4. NAO has sucked and will most likely keep us from getting a moderate+ event unless we thread the proverbial needle or it blows up over or west of gl Edit to add #5: I barely know jack about the mjo except 8-1-2 is supposed to be cold hell on wheels here so toss that in the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 No doubt. As Ian said, it's mushy at best. But there is definitely room for some intuition. That's what makes it fun for me. Dominant patterns can never be overlooked regardless of what models show in the lr. We've been taught that lesson (for better or worse) time and time again. I could have made my post much shorter but colorful attachments make it look much more believable. LOL. My takeaways from my thoughts this morning are actually simple and concise: 1. -pna pattern broke down and there appears to be a tendency for the west coast ridge to keep re-establishing 2. PV moved over here and they don't disappear very quickly at all. It could wobble all over canada for a long time 3. -AO dominant winter is already locked. Just hedging on it staying the course until proven otherwise 4. NAO has sucked and will most likely keep us from getting a moderate+ event unless we thread the proverbial needle or it blows up over or west of gl Edit to add #5: I barely know jack about the mjo except 8-1-2 is supposed to be cold hell on wheels here so toss that in the fire. I said it a while back but this winter is going to be clipper climo. With what you laid out that is the only thing I see that will get us any snow during the cold outbreaks. A W ridge would be nice but with no -NAO help everything will be fast flow and light events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I said it a while back but this winter is going to be clipper climo. With what you laid out that is the only thing I see that will get us any snow during the cold outbreaks. A W ridge would be nice but with no -NAO help everything will be fast flow and light events. Pretty much...except the euro just threw a wrinkle @ d9. Closed ull in tx/ok area and 850 low along the gulf coast.....uh oh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pretty much...except the euro just threw a wrinkle @ d9. Closed ull in tx/ok area and 850 low along the gulf coast.....uh oh..... just what we need.. a historic nc snowstorm with us getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 just what we need.. a historic nc snowstorm with us getting nothing Nah, its about time for a huge snowstorm to show up for us on the EURO post-day 7 and then for it to disappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro has low enough heights over e canada that a block wont be needed and might actually supress anything that does form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nah, its about time for a huge snowstorm to show up for us on the EURO post-day 7 and then for it to disappear Euro likes moving closed lows through the sw. There's some support from the gfs too. Just not as pronounced. Nothing to get all hung up about now because we have to get heavily rained on first but worth watching nonetheless. Verbatim....temps aren't an issue again...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Will it be right is the question. So you admit the CFSv2 isn't an oven for February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 No doubt. As Ian said, it's mushy at best. But there is definitely room for some intuition. That's what makes it fun for me. Dominant patterns can never be overlooked regardless of what models show in the lr. We've been taught that lesson (for better or worse) time and time again. I could have made my post much shorter but colorful attachments make it look much more believable. LOL. My takeaways from my thoughts this morning are actually simple and concise: 1. -pna pattern broke down and there appears to be a tendency for the west coast ridge to keep re-establishing 2. PV moved over here and they don't disappear very quickly at all. It could wobble all over canada for a long time 3. -AO dominant winter is already locked. Just hedging on it staying the course until proven otherwise 4. NAO has sucked and will most likely keep us from getting a moderate+ event unless we thread the proverbial needle or it blows up over or west of gl Edit to add #5: I barely know jack about the mjo except 8-1-2 is supposed to be cold hell on wheels here so toss that in the fire. Excellent post, Bob. In terms of the mjo, the composites for upper air patterns in 8-1-2 are the best for true winter weather here. With the AO cooperating, this should be a good test of the mjo influence. The timing of the favorable phases is ideal. Feb (after the 3rd) could deliver for us--maybe not in one dump, but in several oportunities. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 CFSv2 is an oven for February They also said january will be in the freezer....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 They also said january will be in the freezer....lol its been in the freezer for the most part. 1st week of jan was cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 106° or bust at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 its been in the freezer for the most part. 1st week of jan was cold IAD is +4.6 for the month through yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 if anyone has Accu Pro...take a look at the 168 JMA. It has one of most rididuculous storms ever. 4-5 inches of QPF in the carolinas...looks like some kind of hybrid Rain to Snow snowstorm. Looks like 1-2 feet for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IAD is +4.6 for the month through yesterday. Jan 1-7 were cold Jan 7-16 were warm Jan 19-26 cold something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Jan 1-7 were cold Jan 7-16 were warm Jan 19-26 cold something like that I think its been so long since we had a real winter that its easy to lose sight of what January is supposed to be like. Today is the 4th day this month with a negative departure. The 3rd, and the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 if anyone has Accu Pro...take a look at the 168 JMA. It has one of most rididuculous storms ever. 4-5 inches of QPF in the carolinas...looks like some kind of hybrid Rain to Snow snowstorm. Looks like 1-2 feet for us why would we waste our time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 if anyone has Accu Pro...take a look at the 168 JMA. It has one of most rididuculous storms ever. 4-5 inches of QPF in the carolinas...looks like some kind of hybrid Rain to Snow snowstorm. Looks like 1-2 feet for us Holy crap...... Just checked it. The JMA is so crazy with their QPF but I've never seen it that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 106° or bust at DCA. 90dPNormUS.png looks like tornado season is gonna suck again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think its been so long since we had a real winter that its easy to lose sight of what January is supposed to be like. Today is the 4th day this month with a negative departure. The 3rd, and the past 3 days. where's the guy who called +4 departures cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 106° or bust at DCA. 90dPNormUS.png How are we above normal for precip? Did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How are we above normal for precip? Did I miss something? sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 sandy Duh...forgot that was right at the end of October. All I was thinking was how dry it's been since November 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well for what it's worth HM has a pretty exciting analysis for early February...who knows but he sure is a confident individual. I'm gonna go ahead and ride him to the finish line.....oh dear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well for what it's worth HM has a pretty exciting analysis for early February...who knows but he sure is a confident individual. I'm gonna go ahead and ride him to the finish line.....oh dearThe next shot of winter is probably our last hope around here so it better be good. Well.. I guess you could get 1/2" of slop in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The next shot of winter is probably our last hope around here so it better be good.Well.. I guess you could get 1/2" of slop in March. Stay focused...lets land this f'n plane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Where is it posted? (HM's analysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Where is it posted? (HM's analysis)probably in a forum that has less chance of getting totally screwed by whatever happens do the carolinas have a forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Where is it posted? (HM's analysis) Philly medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Philly medium rangephilly.. miller b that looks ok for us then dry slots to hammer phl north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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