Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 ^^oh god...it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 ^^oh god...it's over Yep. Whoever did that... Get ready for dusting to an inch on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We're 4 days out with decent model agreement. I don't see what the problem is. Yep. Whoever did that... Get ready for dusting to an inch on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We're 4 days out with decent model agreement. I don't see what the problem is. We have resorted to superstitious behavior due to lack of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We're 4 days out with decent model agreement. I don't see what the problem is. I know... but each time this winter the thread has given off bad mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 there isnt a breathing soul who likes winter who wouldnt lock in the 12z euro as is.....0.6" liquid into a massive cold dome....I dont know if there is an unstable layer or if snow growth is ideal but low viz +SN during the day is likely.....can you imagine getting raked by fat dendrites at 20 degrees at 4pm on Friday with 0.25mi viz?....of course it probably wont be best case scenario, but we can dream... Could you imagine rush hour...... luckily my boss comes to me for office weather situations, we'd be home by the time anything was near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL at Henry..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL LOL at Henry..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL at Henry..... my reaction: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 He must not have seen the EURO or Ensembles....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 He must not have seen the EURO or Ensembles....... He mentions both of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LWX hitting the freezing rain and sleet in their p.m. discussion, mentioning a track along the Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LWX hitting the freezing rain and sleet in their p.m. discussion, mentioning a track along the Mason-Dixon line. yeah i heard that on the news this AM "will it snow this week? who knows!! Maybe? tune in at 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 very simple, until the NAM and GFS come on board for a Euro type solution or HPC tells LWX they are going that way, LWX will blindly follow the NAM/GFS Margusity is and always has been in his own, inexplicable little world deprived of adequate oxygen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dt NOAA has sent some winter storm recon planes into the pacific to gather more upper air dats for the models. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dt NOAA has sent some winter storm recon planes into the pacific to gather more upper air dats for the models. lol If you are gonna quote a post you should probably do it right....DT shared the page from Brad Panovich in which he made the statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dt NOAA has sent some winter storm recon planes into the pacific to gather more upper air dats for the models. lol What's wrong with that statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What's wrong with that statement? Really. Surprised it didn't happen earlier with so much of this hanging on that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Really. Surprised it didn't happen earlier with so much of this hanging on that area. I'm pretty sure they sent them out for the past two 00z GFS runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm pretty sure they sent them out for the past two 00z GFS runs..... Thanks. Where do you get that info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Thanks. Where do you get that info? I just remember reading it..... can't remember if it was here or accuwx. Edit: It's in the nws discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to these, but some pretty good analog years have been coming up of late on the Day 11s. Today we had Jan 1987, mid-Feb 2003, and mid-Feb 2007 come up a couple times on the various runs and Feb 67 and Jan 82 was in there too. These things are surprisingly pretty good since patterns tend to repeat. It wouldn't surprise me if will be tracking another storm by the end of next week especially with another Arctic mass coming south. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If you are gonna quote a post you should probably do it right....DT shared the page from Brad Panovich in which he made the statement Haha! It made it full circle! Brad got it from me in the broadcast met FB group and I got it from Srain in the main forum yesterday. They sent a plane last night to check out south of Baja Mexico. Great telephone game though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to these, but some pretty good analog years have been coming up of late on the Day 11s. Today we had Jan 1987, mid-Feb 2003, and mid-Feb 2007 come up a couple times on the various runs and Feb 67 and Jan 82 was in there too. These things are surprisingly pretty good since patterns tend to repeat. It wouldn't surprise me if will be tracking another storm by the end of next week especially with another Arctic mass coming south. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif 2/5-2/10 seems like a good target range for our next moderate threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 2/5-2/10 seems like a good target range for our next moderate threat Good call...I like it. As I previously mentioned we should see 2 xt-RWT's arrive Feb. 4/5 and then Feb 7/8 across the eastern half of the US producing S/W energy so I think your are absolutely correct in your range for our next threats. One is off the east coast of China and the 2nd is over Uzbekistan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Good call...I like it. As I previously mentioned we should see 2 xt-RWT's arrive Feb. 4/5 and then Feb 7/8 across the eastern half of the US producing S/W energy so I think your are absolutely correct in your range for our next threats. One is off the east coast of China and the 2nd is over Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan xt-RWT's usually kill it here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Uzbekistan xt-RWT's usually kill it here.... I figured you would like that geo reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to these, but some pretty good analog years have been coming up of late on the Day 11s. Today we had Jan 1987, mid-Feb 2003, and mid-Feb 2007 come up a couple times on the various runs and Feb 67 and Jan 82 was in there too. These things are surprisingly pretty good since patterns tend to repeat. It wouldn't surprise me if will be tracking another storm by the end of next week especially with another Arctic mass coming south. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif You'd be better served by lookinng at last night's superensemble mean than using a single 18Z GFS run to get your analogs. Plus always try to make sure any storms are in the 7 day window of the centered mean. I guess it doesn't hurt to add an extra day or two but much more than that is just adds dates that may or may not be from patterns that similar to your mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Am I the only one noticing that the big cutter progged for next week is trending below us now? 0z still had a west track @ 500 but it's been moving eastward over the last day or 2. 6z takes the 500 energy below us. Something worth watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We have snow to ice to rain to track beginning around hr 141 on the gfs. Nice cad signal. If the friday storm wraps up more it would make the period a little more interesting before we get 2" of warm rain shortly after. But it gets cold again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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