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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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there isnt a breathing soul who likes winter who wouldnt lock in the 12z euro as is.....0.6" liquid into a massive cold dome....I dont know if there is an unstable layer or if snow growth is  ideal but low viz +SN during the day is likely.....can you imagine getting raked by fat dendrites at 20 degrees at 4pm on Friday with 0.25mi viz?....of course it probably wont be best case scenario, but we can dream...

Could you imagine rush hour...... luckily my boss comes to me for office weather situations, we'd be home by the time anything was near.

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LWX hitting the freezing rain and sleet in their p.m. discussion, mentioning a track along the Mason-Dixon line.

 

yeah i heard that on the news this AM "will it snow this week? who knows!! Maybe? tune in at 6"

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I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to these, but some pretty good analog years have been coming up of late on the Day 11s.  Today we had Jan 1987, mid-Feb 2003, and mid-Feb 2007 come up a couple times on the various runs and Feb 67 and Jan 82 was in there too.  These things are surprisingly pretty good since patterns tend to repeat.  It wouldn't surprise me if will be tracking another storm by the end of next week especially with another Arctic mass coming south.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

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If you are gonna quote a post you should probably do it right....DT shared the page from Brad Panovich in which he made the statement

Haha! It made it full circle! Brad got it from me in the broadcast met FB group and I got it from Srain in the main forum yesterday. They sent a plane last night to check out south of Baja Mexico. Great telephone game though!  :lmao:

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I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to these, but some pretty good analog years have been coming up of late on the Day 11s.  Today we had Jan 1987, mid-Feb 2003, and mid-Feb 2007 come up a couple times on the various runs and Feb 67 and Jan 82 was in there too.  These things are surprisingly pretty good since patterns tend to repeat.  It wouldn't surprise me if will be tracking another storm by the end of next week especially with another Arctic mass coming south.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

 

2/5-2/10 seems like a good target range for our next moderate threat

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2/5-2/10 seems like a good target range for our next moderate threat

Good call...I like it. As I previously mentioned we should see 2 xt-RWT's arrive Feb. 4/5 and then Feb 7/8 across the eastern half of the US producing S/W energy so I think your are absolutely correct in your range for our next threats.  One is off the east coast of China and the 2nd is over Uzbekistan. 

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Good call...I like it. As I previously mentioned we should see 2 xt-RWT's arrive Feb. 4/5 and then Feb 7/8 across the eastern half of the US producing S/W energy so I think your are absolutely correct in your range for our next threats.  One is off the east coast of China and the 2nd is over Uzbekistan. 

 

Uzbekistan xt-RWT's usually kill it here....

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I don't know if anyone has been paying attention to these, but some pretty good analog years have been coming up of late on the Day 11s.  Today we had Jan 1987, mid-Feb 2003, and mid-Feb 2007 come up a couple times on the various runs and Feb 67 and Jan 82 was in there too.  These things are surprisingly pretty good since patterns tend to repeat.  It wouldn't surprise me if will be tracking another storm by the end of next week especially with another Arctic mass coming south.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

 

You'd be better served by lookinng at last night's superensemble mean than using a single 18Z GFS run to get your analogs.  Plus always try to make sure any storms are in the 7 day window of the centered mean. I guess it doesn't hurt to add an extra day or two but much more than that is just adds dates that may or may not be from patterns that similar to your mean.

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