TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 my analog, 3/9/99 Bingo, nailed it. I definitely agree. Done some research on that one, looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Folks, The 12Z ECMWF is now doing exactly what the conceptual model would suggest, and what we said a few days ago, with the antecedent arctic airmass. No way would a surface low track due E through the OH Vly through the Appalachians and into the mid Atlantic like the GFS would suggest. The EC now shows a more typical Miller B setup with the surface low from BNA to the coastal front near CAE/CHS...then NE crossing the NC outer banks. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 my analog, 3/9/99 The surface isn't a bad match but the 500 pattern looks quite a bit different. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0309.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The surface isn't a bad match but the 500 pattern looks quite a bit different. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0309.php yeah...I just made it up off the top of my head as a quasi-joke because it gave us a lot of snow during the day in cold air with an OV low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 my analog, 3/9/99 I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The surface isn't a bad match but the 500 pattern looks quite a bit different. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0309.php yeah...I just made it up off the top of my head as a quasi-joke because it gave us a lot of snow during the day in cold air with an OV low This is a pretty sweet snowstorm pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 yeah...I just made it up off the top of my head as a quasi-joke because it gave us a lot of snow during the day in cold air with an OV low I was going for that because of the low moving up out of the OV as well, and the satellite images are interesting, think we could see that coming up as well. I love some daytime heavy snow, hope we get a lot of daytime into some nighttime, wanna remember both heavy snow at day and night, snowed hard during 12/26 last month but only for an hour in there with mdt snow the rest of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is a pretty sweet snowstorm pattern It's a really nice looking 500h for a snowstorm. Now we just need it to be there at 48 hours ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I had something out of the office at 12:30 and just walked back in I need to stay away for all the Euro runs it doesn't get any better than this for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Timing of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL. What ever happened to that crazy map thread. This made me think of it. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's a really nice looking 500h for a snowstorm. Now we just need it to be there at 48 hours ahead of time. euro looks quite a bit better than GFS at the same time, especially with heights rising east of that vortex off the west coast...perhaps the reason for the better solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I had something out of the office at 12:30 and just walked back in I need to stay away for all the Euro runs it doesn't get any better than this for us It actually can....get a little more spin in the upper levels and we can get a solid 3-6" waa and another 2-4" from the deform on the back of the comma. Plenty of runs to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is a pretty sweet snowstorm pattern :drool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It actually can....get a little more spin in the upper levels and we can get a solid 3-6" waa and another 2-4" from the deform on the back of the comma. Plenty of runs to go... And that in addition to the rumored ratios everyone was talking about a few days ago haha, but seriously thicknesses do support healthy ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 :drool I usually don't like seeing a vortex over BC, but it actually helps pump heights over Baffin Island....The most likely piece to be wrong because it is a euro bias is that trough off southern CA, which if it wasn't there would probably suppress the storm even more which may or may not help us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 euro looks quite a bit better than GFS at the same time, especially with heights rising east of that vortex off the west coast...perhaps the reason for the better solution? I think that is much of the reason. Allows for more downstream digging. Alos, I think the euro was a little stronger with the Thursday clipper event which also helps with more cold air and some confluence across new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I usually don't like seeing a vortex over BC, but it actually helps pump heights over Baffin Island....The most likely piece to be wrong because it is a euro bias is that trough off southern CA, which if it wasn't there would probably suppress the storm even more which may or may not help us... Post that same map from a month ago..... I bet you don't mind seeing the vortex after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think that is much of the reason. Allows for more downstream digging. Alos, I think the euro was a little stronger with the Thursday clipper event which also helps with more cold air and some confluence across new england. I've been joking around more than usual today but I do agree about the clipper holding a big piece of the puzzle. I suppose hedging that it ends up being a bit stronger is not unreasonable. Especially once it spends some time over the atlantic. The gfs solution is fine too but there are definitely enough hints being dropped that a more southern track on fri isn't just a fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It actually can....get a little more spin in the upper levels and we can get a solid 3-6" waa and another 2-4" from the deform on the back of the comma. Plenty of runs to go... I'm sasified with this run, my friend...nor more is needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Post that same map from a month ago..... I bet you don't mind seeing the vortex after that. nobody is being picky...it is a great snow pattern with cold air in place...I just want liquid...i really dont care about anything else...the chances of a driving rainstorm even with an awful track is pretty low...we'd still get frozen on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 this storm is really moving along; we might get a little better qpf totals out of it, but not much in light of its projected path and speed just freeze it here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 this storm is really moving along; we might get a little better qpf totals out of it, but not much in light of its projected path and speed just freeze it here anyway I think QPF maxes around .75 could work, and there will as always be heavier rates in some bands that will bring down more totals anywhere heavy snow occurs. Ratios would be good, but as I said, I'm not going there until we have nailed down a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 nobody is being picky...it is a great snow pattern with cold air in place...I just want liquid...i really dont care about anything else...the chances of a driving rainstorm even with an awful track is pretty low...we'd still get frozen on the front end Sorry if it came off that way, was not insinuating that. I agree, thats why I've been rooting for wet/warm runs over dry/cold ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Another thing to note is that we'd have "stickage" on all surfaces right from the get go and if the Euro solution is what other models come to, the salt on the roads wouldn't really do much, just a note if colder outcomes prevail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Another thing to note is that we'd have "stickage" on all surfaces right from the get go and if the Euro solution is what other models come to, the salt on the roads wouldn't really do much, just a note if colder outcomes prevail. A lot of jurisdictions are using combinations of chemicals now that work to much lower temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 red it .5"+ blue is .75"+.. tho my tracing sucks a bit. Untitled-3.jpg For those who may remember him, this graphic resembles something Wally Kinnan the Weatherman may have put together. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 this storm is really moving along; we might get a little better qpf totals out of it, but not much in light of its projected path and speed just freeze it here anyway there isnt a breathing soul who likes winter who wouldnt lock in the 12z euro as is.....0.6" liquid into a massive cold dome....I dont know if there is an unstable layer or if snow growth is ideal but low viz +SN during the day is likely.....can you imagine getting raked by fat dendrites at 20 degrees at 4pm on Friday with 0.25mi viz?....of course it probably wont be best case scenario, but we can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 A lot of jurisdictions are using combinations of chemicals now that work to much lower temperatures. True, we'll hopefully get to find out if temperatures at 20-24 degrees and heavy snow can put them to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38951-125-126-storm-disco-thread/ Storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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