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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Just to see if it differs from BWI at all, MTN? I have the output, but am out atm.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MTN    LAT=  39.32 LON=  -76.40 ELE=    23                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -2.0    -7.1    1020      45      86    0.00     545     529    MON 18Z 21-JAN   2.2    -5.8    1015      48      93    0.00     541     529    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.5    -7.3    1011      60      94    0.00     533     524    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.3   -15.9    1014      40       8    0.00     527     516    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -5.7   -18.8    1018      36      23    0.00     522     508    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.6   -18.1    1020      25      20    0.00     524     509    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -4.7   -17.6    1022      29      20    0.00     526     509    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.5   -19.9    1024      30      19    0.00     528     510    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.4   -20.7    1025      32      39    0.00     529     510    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -4.2   -18.7    1023      27      69    0.00     531     513    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.9   -15.9    1021      31     100    0.00     529     513    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -5.2   -15.9    1019      37     100    0.01     524     509    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.5   -18.1    1022      38      94    0.01     519     502    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -3.7   -18.7    1028      24      23    0.00     527     506    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -5.6   -17.2    1031      26      13    0.00     542     518    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -14.6    1031      34       3    0.00     546     523    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -7.4   -13.9    1029      39      71    0.00     547     525    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.7   -13.8    1022      58      99    0.06     545     528    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.0   -10.0    1014      91      97    0.44     539     528    SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -6.7   -11.5    1011      87      61    0.13     531     522    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -10.1   -12.9    1013      80      44    0.00     531     521    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.4   -16.1    1015      51      79    0.00     527     515    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -8.2   -17.3    1020      58      70    0.00     524     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -12.0   -15.0    1025      64      20    0.00     530     511    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -12.1   -10.9    1029      72      11    0.00     541     520    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.6    -7.4    1028      58      30    0.00     552     530    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -5.9    -4.9    1028      73      31    0.00     557     535    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -3.7    -2.4    1025      73      79    0.00     554     535    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.6    -4.8    1021      77      98    0.00     553     536    
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GED or DOV if you could? Much appreciated! :)

DOV

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DOV    LAT=  39.12 LON=  -75.47 ELE=    30                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -2.2    -5.3    1020      53      74    0.00     547     531    MON 18Z 21-JAN   3.8    -4.6    1015      41      77    0.00     543     531    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.8    -3.9    1009      68     100    0.00     537     529    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -2.1   -13.7    1013      38       6    0.00     530     520    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -5.1   -18.3    1017      34      18    0.00     524     511    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.3   -18.2    1019      29      14    0.00     525     510    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -4.6   -17.1    1022      31      15    0.00     527     510    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.2   -19.5    1024      32      16    0.00     529     511    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.5   -20.5    1025      37      35    0.00     530     511    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -3.8   -19.0    1023      30      61    0.00     531     514    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -5.8   -16.2    1021      38      96    0.00     531     514    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -5.0   -15.4    1019      39     100    0.00     525     510    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.2   -17.1    1021      37      97    0.01     519     503    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -3.7   -19.1    1027      23      25    0.00     525     504    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -5.6   -16.9    1030      25      15    0.00     540     517    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -7.4   -14.1    1031      35       6    0.00     546     523    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -7.1   -13.3    1029      39      66    0.00     547     525    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -2.9   -12.9    1023      51     100    0.01     547     529    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -3.2    -8.1    1013      91     100    0.39     541     530    SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -4.8    -9.7    1009      89      70    0.28     532     525    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -10.4   -12.1    1011      83      25    0.00     531     523    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -3.5   -14.5    1013      54      72    0.00     529     518    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -9.3   -16.9    1019      59      75    0.00     524     510    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.4   -15.9    1024      64      38    0.00     528     510    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -15.3   -12.1    1028      74      10    0.00     538     517    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -3.1    -8.1    1028      54      25    0.00     551     529    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -7.7    -5.0    1028      76      37    0.00     556     534    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -4.1    -2.6    1025      76      63    0.00     555     535    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.5    -2.9    1021      78      97    0.00     553     536    
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I think we can stop debating whether we need arctic air or not to get snow.

The reason the euro is colder is because it has a more southern track. It has cold and a good storm track. If the low cuts to Lake Erie we are not going to get a significant snow here no matter how much cold air you put in here the day before.
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IAD....

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD    LAT=  38.95 LON=  -77.45 ELE=   322

                                            12Z JAN21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.1    -6.1    1020      46      79    0.00     546     531    
MON 18Z 21-JAN   5.3    -5.2    1014      42      97    0.00     542     531    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.8    -6.9    1011      39      41    0.00     535     525    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.9   -16.0    1016      33       8    0.00     528     516    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -6.8   -19.5    1020      27      22    0.00     526     510    
TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.5   -18.0    1021      26      18    0.00     527     510    
WED 00Z 23-JAN  -5.3   -17.5    1023      23      15    0.00     529     511    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.8   -19.6    1025      25      22    0.00     531     512    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.9   -20.3    1026      28      38    0.00     533     513    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  -3.2   -17.8    1023      26      87    0.00     534     516    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.6   -14.1    1021      40     100    0.00     532     516    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  -4.9   -14.2    1018      48     100    0.02     527     513    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.3   -17.5    1023      46     100    0.03     523     506    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  -2.4   -17.0    1028      24      20    0.00     533     511    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -16.6    1031      38       5    0.00     546     521    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -6.2   -15.9    1031      29       3    0.00     549     525    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -6.0   -13.8    1028      27      54    0.00     549     527    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.7   -13.1    1020      68     100    0.14     546     530    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.8    -9.4    1013      93      96    0.39     539     528    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0   -12.0    1013      91      42    0.02     532     522    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9   -15.1    1015      85      48    0.00     531     520    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.3   -16.6    1017      48      87    0.00     527     514    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -9.0   -17.3    1022      56      68    0.00     525     508    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6   -15.3    1027      70      12    0.00     533     512    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1   -10.8    1030      81      10    0.00     546     523    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.3    -6.9    1030      56      35    0.00     555     532    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  -8.9    -4.2    1028      72      30    0.00     559     537    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -4.1    -1.6    1024      77      95    0.00     556     536    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.9    -4.1    1021      82      95    0.00     554     537    



Any other locations needed?

KOKV, thanks

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MTN    LAT=  39.32 LON=  -76.40 ELE=    23                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -2.0    -7.1    1020      45      86    0.00     545     529    MON 18Z 21-JAN   2.2    -5.8    1015      48      93    0.00     541     529    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.5    -7.3    1011      60      94    0.00     533     524    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.3   -15.9    1014      40       8    0.00     527     516    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -5.7   -18.8    1018      36      23    0.00     522     508    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.6   -18.1    1020      25      20    0.00     524     509    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -4.7   -17.6    1022      29      20    0.00     526     509    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.5   -19.9    1024      30      19    0.00     528     510    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.4   -20.7    1025      32      39    0.00     529     510    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -4.2   -18.7    1023      27      69    0.00     531     513    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.9   -15.9    1021      31     100    0.00     529     513    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -5.2   -15.9    1019      37     100    0.01     524     509    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.5   -18.1    1022      38      94    0.01     519     502    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -3.7   -18.7    1028      24      23    0.00     527     506    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -5.6   -17.2    1031      26      13    0.00     542     518    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -14.6    1031      34       3    0.00     546     523    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -7.4   -13.9    1029      39      71    0.00     547     525    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.7   -13.8    1022      58      99    0.06     545     528    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.0   -10.0    1014      91      97    0.44     539     528    SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -6.7   -11.5    1011      87      61    0.13     531     522    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -10.1   -12.9    1013      80      44    0.00     531     521    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.4   -16.1    1015      51      79    0.00     527     515    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -8.2   -17.3    1020      58      70    0.00     524     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -12.0   -15.0    1025      64      20    0.00     530     511    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -12.1   -10.9    1029      72      11    0.00     541     520    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.6    -7.4    1028      58      30    0.00     552     530    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -5.9    -4.9    1028      73      31    0.00     557     535    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -3.7    -2.4    1025      73      79    0.00     554     535    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.6    -4.8    1021      77      98    0.00     553     536    

Much appreciated, impressive. Thanks again! 

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KOKV, thanks

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OKV    LAT=  39.15 LON=  -78.15 ELE=   728                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.5    -7.0    1019      47      91    0.00     544     529    MON 18Z 21-JAN   4.4    -6.3    1013      38      95    0.00     540     529    TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -0.3   -10.4    1013      50      23    0.00     532     522    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -5.8   -16.6    1016      38      11    0.00     526     513    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -8.7   -20.0    1021      31      23    0.00     524     509    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -5.0   -18.1    1022      21      26    0.00     525     509    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -6.9   -18.1    1024      22      19    0.00     529     510    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -8.6   -19.9    1026      27      27    0.00     530     511    WED 12Z 23-JAN -10.0   -20.4    1026      31      43    0.00     533     513    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -4.3   -17.2    1023      20      91    0.00     534     516    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -5.3   -14.4    1020      33      98    0.00     532     516    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -6.6   -14.3    1019      53      96    0.02     526     512    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -7.8   -17.5    1024      55      96    0.04     523     505    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -3.3   -16.8    1029      19      29    0.00     535     513    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -16.5    1031      28       4    0.00     546     522    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -7.7   -15.9    1031      30      11    0.00     549     525    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -7.1   -14.0    1027      25      66    0.00     548     528    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -7.0   -14.2    1020      70      99    0.19     544     529    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -7.4   -10.7    1013      91      95    0.30     536     526    SAT 06Z 26-JAN -10.8   -13.4    1014      89      47    0.01     532     521    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -12.3   -16.3    1016      83      69    0.00     531     518    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -5.4   -16.9    1018      46      88    0.00     526     512    SUN 00Z 27-JAN -11.0   -17.2    1023      60      70    0.00     526     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.8   -16.0    1028      72      13    0.00     535     513    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.2   -10.3    1030      80      13    0.00     548     525    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.8    -7.2    1030      55      42    0.00     556     532    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -5.4    -3.6    1027      58      25    0.00     558     537    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -3.9    -2.1    1024      72      94    0.00     555     537    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.6    -4.2    1021      76      92    0.00     554     537    

 

 

Ok, I'll stop clogging the thread  :snowing:

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The reason the euro is colder is because it has a more southern track. It has cold and a good storm track. If the low cuts to Lake Erie we are not going to get a significant snow here no matter how much cold air you put in here the day before.

 

I was being a smartass and replied to ian as such. I do believe that getting a solid front end thump out of a relatively weak system that passes over or just north gets plenty of help from an arctic airmass or very deep continental cold airmass at onset. But I would be the last person to honestly say that we *have* to have arctic air for snow. But there are definitely setups where it helps a lot. Especially with a stale antecedent airmass. 

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I think weenies can take some solace with the fact that pretty much all solutions are showing a uniform area of precip that isn't leaving anybody out of the game. I know wwxlvr luvs this. 

 

Now there are indications that the departing clipper thurs helps carve out the cold a bit better. Even if the track jumps back n we still can count on accum snow based on the various solutions. If the clipper ends up being a bit more amped it could lead to a more suppre......I'll shut the ef up now. 

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I think weenies can take some solace with the fact that pretty much all solutions are showing a uniform area of precip that isn't leaving anybody out of the game. I know wwxlvr luvs this. 

 

Now there are indications that the departing clipper thurs helps carve out the cold a bit better. Even if the track jumps back n we still can count on accum snow based on the various solutions. If the clipper ends up being a bit more amped it could lead to a more suppre......I'll shut the ef up now. 

Good thing you shut up haha, just messing with you. The trend for clippers of late has been to stay to not amp up too much, we haven't really seen any super clippers at our latitude. 

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I think weenies can take some solace with the fact that pretty much all solutions are showing a uniform area of precip that isn't leaving anybody out of the game. I know wwxlvr luvs this.

Now there are indications that the departing clipper thurs helps carve out the cold a bit better. Even if the track jumps back n we still can count on accum snow based on the various solutions. If the clipper ends up being a bit more amped it could lead to a more suppre......I'll shut the ef up now.

You got it Bob. I hope now that we see very modest ticks back north. We have a good working margin on the cold. Slight shifts north at this point just puts us in heavier precip.

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