clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ding! Ding! I'll take the Euro please. Everyone is happy 3-6 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This run is effing freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What's going to shake weenies up worse.....some suppressed and dry runs or warm and wet ones? We're gonna get one or the other or both. Just a friendly reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 and I'm schedules to do an article tomorrow. Hope it holds serve for another 24 hours. Good luck! I do not envy your position with this one, even though things have been looking good for the most part of the past 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wow... haven't had one of those in years. I mean 1/30/10 was similar temps wise but a much different set-up and situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 no rain in the new zone Freezing rain or snow or sleet likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 eh.. it's good to have cold air but we do have plenty of examples without it I was just being a smartass....unless you believe in our "new" climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What's going to shakes weenies us worse.....some suppressed and dry runs or warm and wet ones? We're gonna get one or the other or both. Just a friendly reminder. this one's it.. we're fookin due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What's going to shakes weenies us worse.....some suppressed and dry runs or warm and wet ones? We're gonna get one or the other or both. Just a friendly reminder. I've been thinking this for the past few days but I'd MUCH rather see warm and wet. It's weird saying that with how our winter has been but I just don't see it being warm for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm at 150 hrs and we haven't gotten out of the mid 20s yet the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think we can stop debating whether we need arctic air or not to get snow. Not if it's 09-10. But this year I'd agree, if it's not arctic, it's way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm at 150 hrs and we haven't gotten out of the mid 20s yet the entire run Skating on the canal? I can see that happening. Skating across the bay? Prob 30 years too late for that. Since I haven't ponied up for pay euro, let me know if the cutter rears and how it looks behind it. I'm kinda counting on a 2-3 day warm shot tops. Hopefully it never materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wow, .4 or so qpf my area. All snow-- (barring a warm nose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Precip please. Temps aren't the enemy. I know we can't post pay maps. Maybe somebody can describe precip contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 An all snow event with arctic air before and after. I would take this event as currently modeled and then be happy even with 50's for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle. So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.) Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 another RWT (currently over Africa) should arrive and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. Disclaimer: As always there is the possibility of strong southerly flow ahead of any of these S/W so the stronger the S/W the stronger the brief 1-2 day period of southerly flow to warm things up for a minute. So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-11 Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 below freezing for a week straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 below freezing for a week straight New pt and click even here se of baltimore city has 30 for friday, snow zr sleet likely, 70%. They are gaining confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Precip please. Temps aren't the enemy. I know we can't post pay maps. Maybe somebody can describe precip contours. red it .5"+ blue is .75"+.. tho my tracing sucks a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Does this format work? ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -1.1 -5.4 1020 46 76 0.00 547 531 MON 18Z 21-JAN 5.6 -4.7 1014 44 91 0.00 543 531 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 3.6 -5.7 1011 42 67 0.00 535 527 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.2 -15.5 1015 34 7 0.00 530 518 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -6.2 -19.0 1020 29 20 0.00 526 511 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -3.3 -17.9 1021 26 16 0.00 527 511 WED 00Z 23-JAN -5.0 -17.1 1023 26 15 0.00 530 512 WED 06Z 23-JAN -6.4 -19.4 1025 26 19 0.00 531 512 WED 12Z 23-JAN -7.4 -19.8 1026 26 36 0.00 533 513 WED 18Z 23-JAN -3.1 -17.9 1023 25 82 0.00 535 517 THU 00Z 24-JAN -5.2 -14.2 1021 41 99 0.00 533 517 THU 06Z 24-JAN -4.7 -13.7 1018 44 100 0.01 528 514 THU 12Z 24-JAN -6.2 -17.1 1022 41 96 0.02 524 507 THU 18Z 24-JAN -2.2 -17.2 1028 22 25 0.00 532 511 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -6.6 -16.6 1031 32 6 0.00 545 521 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -6.8 -15.4 1031 39 2 0.00 549 525 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -6.0 -14.1 1028 30 52 0.00 549 527 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.2 -12.7 1021 66 99 0.11 547 530 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -5.1 -8.5 1013 93 99 0.40 540 530 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -8.5 -10.8 1012 90 45 0.05 532 523 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.5 -13.2 1014 83 44 0.00 532 521 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -4.2 -16.2 1016 49 87 0.00 528 515 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -9.0 -17.0 1021 59 69 0.00 524 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.4 -15.1 1026 68 15 0.00 532 512 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.7 -11.0 1030 77 9 0.00 545 522 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.4 -6.9 1029 57 32 0.00 554 531 MON 00Z 28-JAN -8.2 -4.5 1028 73 31 0.00 558 536 MON 06Z 28-JAN -3.8 -1.4 1025 74 89 0.00 556 536 MON 12Z 28-JAN What's New • Help • Contact Us • Account Info • Terms and Conditions • Privacy Statement ©2013 AccuWeather, Inc. All rights reserved. Redistribution Prohibited. nice...and it is fine......6-8" for DCA...yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 BWI ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BWI LAT= 39.18 LON= -76.67 ELE= 154 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -1.5 -6.7 1020 46 85 0.00 546 530 MON 18Z 21-JAN 2.8 -5.5 1015 49 93 0.00 541 530 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 2.9 -7.0 1011 55 82 0.00 533 524 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.2 -15.9 1015 39 8 0.00 528 516 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -5.7 -19.1 1019 36 22 0.00 524 509 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -3.7 -18.1 1020 27 19 0.00 525 509 WED 00Z 23-JAN -4.4 -17.6 1023 28 19 0.00 527 510 WED 06Z 23-JAN -6.2 -19.8 1024 31 19 0.00 529 510 WED 12Z 23-JAN -7.2 -20.4 1025 33 39 0.00 531 511 WED 18Z 23-JAN -4.2 -18.5 1023 29 74 0.00 532 514 THU 00Z 24-JAN -4.4 -15.3 1021 33 100 0.00 530 514 THU 06Z 24-JAN -4.8 -15.3 1019 43 100 0.01 525 511 THU 12Z 24-JAN -6.0 -17.8 1022 43 96 0.01 520 503 THU 18Z 24-JAN -3.3 -18.0 1028 27 24 0.00 529 507 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -5.1 -17.1 1031 29 10 0.00 543 519 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -6.5 -14.8 1031 38 2 0.00 547 523 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -6.3 -14.0 1029 39 64 0.00 548 526 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.2 -13.7 1022 64 99 0.08 545 528 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -4.2 -9.9 1013 91 97 0.45 539 529 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -6.2 -11.4 1011 88 54 0.11 531 522 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -9.5 -13.3 1013 81 44 0.00 531 521 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -4.1 -16.2 1016 50 82 0.00 527 515 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -7.1 -17.2 1021 56 70 0.00 524 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -11.0 -15.2 1026 66 17 0.00 531 511 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -11.1 -11.1 1029 72 10 0.00 543 521 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.4 -7.3 1029 57 31 0.00 553 530 MON 00Z 28-JAN -5.3 -4.8 1028 70 33 0.00 557 535 MON 06Z 28-JAN -3.0 -2.1 1025 70 83 0.00 555 535 MON 12Z 28-JAN -1.9 -4.6 1021 75 98 0.00 553 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IAD.... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD LAT= 38.95 LON= -77.45 ELE= 322 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -1.1 -6.1 1020 46 79 0.00 546 531 MON 18Z 21-JAN 5.3 -5.2 1014 42 97 0.00 542 531 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 2.8 -6.9 1011 39 41 0.00 535 525 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.9 -16.0 1016 33 8 0.00 528 516 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -6.8 -19.5 1020 27 22 0.00 526 510 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -3.5 -18.0 1021 26 18 0.00 527 510 WED 00Z 23-JAN -5.3 -17.5 1023 23 15 0.00 529 511 WED 06Z 23-JAN -6.8 -19.6 1025 25 22 0.00 531 512 WED 12Z 23-JAN -7.9 -20.3 1026 28 38 0.00 533 513 WED 18Z 23-JAN -3.2 -17.8 1023 26 87 0.00 534 516 THU 00Z 24-JAN -4.6 -14.1 1021 40 100 0.00 532 516 THU 06Z 24-JAN -4.9 -14.2 1018 48 100 0.02 527 513 THU 12Z 24-JAN -6.3 -17.5 1023 46 100 0.03 523 506 THU 18Z 24-JAN -2.4 -17.0 1028 24 20 0.00 533 511 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -7.5 -16.6 1031 38 5 0.00 546 521 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -6.2 -15.9 1031 29 3 0.00 549 525 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -6.0 -13.8 1028 27 54 0.00 549 527 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.7 -13.1 1020 68 100 0.14 546 530 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -5.8 -9.4 1013 93 96 0.39 539 528 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0 -12.0 1013 91 42 0.02 532 522 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9 -15.1 1015 85 48 0.00 531 520 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -4.3 -16.6 1017 48 87 0.00 527 514 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -9.0 -17.3 1022 56 68 0.00 525 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6 -15.3 1027 70 12 0.00 533 512 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1 -10.8 1030 81 10 0.00 546 523 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.3 -6.9 1030 56 35 0.00 555 532 MON 00Z 28-JAN -8.9 -4.2 1028 72 30 0.00 559 537 MON 06Z 28-JAN -4.1 -1.6 1024 77 95 0.00 556 536 MON 12Z 28-JAN -2.9 -4.1 1021 82 95 0.00 554 537 Any other locations needed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 red it .5"+ blue is .75"+.. tho my tracing sucks a bit. Untitled-3.jpg Dude. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dude. LOL I kinda botched your area and DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 red it .5"+ blue is .75"+.. tho my tracing sucks a bit. Untitled-3.jpg Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dude. LOL It gets the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks good to me. Wes, you should use that in your article tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IAD.... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD LAT= 38.95 LON= -77.45 ELE= 322 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -1.1 -6.1 1020 46 79 0.00 546 531 MON 18Z 21-JAN 5.3 -5.2 1014 42 97 0.00 542 531 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 2.8 -6.9 1011 39 41 0.00 535 525 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.9 -16.0 1016 33 8 0.00 528 516 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -6.8 -19.5 1020 27 22 0.00 526 510 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -3.5 -18.0 1021 26 18 0.00 527 510 WED 00Z 23-JAN -5.3 -17.5 1023 23 15 0.00 529 511 WED 06Z 23-JAN -6.8 -19.6 1025 25 22 0.00 531 512 WED 12Z 23-JAN -7.9 -20.3 1026 28 38 0.00 533 513 WED 18Z 23-JAN -3.2 -17.8 1023 26 87 0.00 534 516 THU 00Z 24-JAN -4.6 -14.1 1021 40 100 0.00 532 516 THU 06Z 24-JAN -4.9 -14.2 1018 48 100 0.02 527 513 THU 12Z 24-JAN -6.3 -17.5 1023 46 100 0.03 523 506 THU 18Z 24-JAN -2.4 -17.0 1028 24 20 0.00 533 511 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -7.5 -16.6 1031 38 5 0.00 546 521 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -6.2 -15.9 1031 29 3 0.00 549 525 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -6.0 -13.8 1028 27 54 0.00 549 527 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.7 -13.1 1020 68 100 0.14 546 530 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -5.8 -9.4 1013 93 96 0.39 539 528 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0 -12.0 1013 91 42 0.02 532 522 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9 -15.1 1015 85 48 0.00 531 520 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -4.3 -16.6 1017 48 87 0.00 527 514 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -9.0 -17.3 1022 56 68 0.00 525 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6 -15.3 1027 70 12 0.00 533 512 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1 -10.8 1030 81 10 0.00 546 523 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.3 -6.9 1030 56 35 0.00 555 532 MON 00Z 28-JAN -8.9 -4.2 1028 72 30 0.00 559 537 MON 06Z 28-JAN -4.1 -1.6 1024 77 95 0.00 556 536 MON 12Z 28-JAN -2.9 -4.1 1021 82 95 0.00 554 537 Any other locations needed? Just to see if it differs from BWI at all, MTN? I have the output, but am out atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IAD.... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD LAT= 38.95 LON= -77.45 ELE= 322 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -1.1 -6.1 1020 46 79 0.00 546 531 MON 18Z 21-JAN 5.3 -5.2 1014 42 97 0.00 542 531 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 2.8 -6.9 1011 39 41 0.00 535 525 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.9 -16.0 1016 33 8 0.00 528 516 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -6.8 -19.5 1020 27 22 0.00 526 510 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -3.5 -18.0 1021 26 18 0.00 527 510 WED 00Z 23-JAN -5.3 -17.5 1023 23 15 0.00 529 511 WED 06Z 23-JAN -6.8 -19.6 1025 25 22 0.00 531 512 WED 12Z 23-JAN -7.9 -20.3 1026 28 38 0.00 533 513 WED 18Z 23-JAN -3.2 -17.8 1023 26 87 0.00 534 516 THU 00Z 24-JAN -4.6 -14.1 1021 40 100 0.00 532 516 THU 06Z 24-JAN -4.9 -14.2 1018 48 100 0.02 527 513 THU 12Z 24-JAN -6.3 -17.5 1023 46 100 0.03 523 506 THU 18Z 24-JAN -2.4 -17.0 1028 24 20 0.00 533 511 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -7.5 -16.6 1031 38 5 0.00 546 521 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -6.2 -15.9 1031 29 3 0.00 549 525 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -6.0 -13.8 1028 27 54 0.00 549 527 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.7 -13.1 1020 68 100 0.14 546 530 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -5.8 -9.4 1013 93 96 0.39 539 528 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0 -12.0 1013 91 42 0.02 532 522 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9 -15.1 1015 85 48 0.00 531 520 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -4.3 -16.6 1017 48 87 0.00 527 514 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -9.0 -17.3 1022 56 68 0.00 525 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6 -15.3 1027 70 12 0.00 533 512 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1 -10.8 1030 81 10 0.00 546 523 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.3 -6.9 1030 56 35 0.00 555 532 MON 00Z 28-JAN -8.9 -4.2 1028 72 30 0.00 559 537 MON 06Z 28-JAN -4.1 -1.6 1024 77 95 0.00 556 536 MON 12Z 28-JAN -2.9 -4.1 1021 82 95 0.00 554 537 Any other locations needed? GED or DOV if you could? Much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle. So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.) Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 another RWT (currently over Africa) should arrive and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. Disclaimer: As always there is the possibility of strong southerly flow ahead of any of these S/W so the stronger the S/W the stronger the brief 1-2 day period of southerly flow to warm things up for a minute. So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-11 Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above. I read the quoted part 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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