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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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What's going to shakes weenies us worse.....some suppressed and dry runs or warm and wet ones? We're gonna get one or the other or both. Just a friendly reminder. 

this one's it.. we're fookin due

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What's going to shakes weenies us worse.....some suppressed and dry runs or warm and wet ones? We're gonna get one or the other or both. Just a friendly reminder. 

 

I've been thinking this for the past few days but I'd MUCH rather see warm and wet.  It's weird saying that with how our winter has been but I just don't see it being warm for this event.

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I'm at 150 hrs and we haven't gotten out of the mid 20s yet the entire run

 

Skating on the canal? I can see that happening. Skating across the bay? Prob 30 years too late for that. 

 

Since I haven't ponied up for pay euro, let me know if the cutter rears and how it looks behind it. I'm kinda counting on a 2-3 day warm shot tops. Hopefully it never materializes. 

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Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle.

 

So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.)  Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 another RWT (currently over Africa) should arrive and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. Disclaimer: As always there is the possibility of strong southerly flow ahead of any of these S/W so the stronger the S/W the stronger the brief 1-2 day period of southerly flow to warm things up for a minute.

 

So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F

 

 Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-11

 

Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above. 

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Does this format work?

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA    LAT=  38.85 LON=  -77.03 ELE=    16                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.1    -5.4    1020      46      76    0.00     547     531    MON 18Z 21-JAN   5.6    -4.7    1014      44      91    0.00     543     531    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   3.6    -5.7    1011      42      67    0.00     535     527    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.2   -15.5    1015      34       7    0.00     530     518    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -6.2   -19.0    1020      29      20    0.00     526     511    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.3   -17.9    1021      26      16    0.00     527     511    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -5.0   -17.1    1023      26      15    0.00     530     512    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.4   -19.4    1025      26      19    0.00     531     512    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.4   -19.8    1026      26      36    0.00     533     513    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -3.1   -17.9    1023      25      82    0.00     535     517    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -5.2   -14.2    1021      41      99    0.00     533     517    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -4.7   -13.7    1018      44     100    0.01     528     514    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.2   -17.1    1022      41      96    0.02     524     507    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -2.2   -17.2    1028      22      25    0.00     532     511    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -6.6   -16.6    1031      32       6    0.00     545     521    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -6.8   -15.4    1031      39       2    0.00     549     525    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -6.0   -14.1    1028      30      52    0.00     549     527    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.2   -12.7    1021      66      99    0.11     547     530    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.1    -8.5    1013      93      99    0.40     540     530    SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -8.5   -10.8    1012      90      45    0.05     532     523    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.5   -13.2    1014      83      44    0.00     532     521    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.2   -16.2    1016      49      87    0.00     528     515    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -9.0   -17.0    1021      59      69    0.00     524     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.4   -15.1    1026      68      15    0.00     532     512    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.7   -11.0    1030      77       9    0.00     545     522    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.4    -6.9    1029      57      32    0.00     554     531    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -8.2    -4.5    1028      73      31    0.00     558     536    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -3.8    -1.4    1025      74      89    0.00     556     536    MON 12Z 28-JAN                                                                  

 

 

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nice...and it is fine......6-8" for DCA...yum

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BWI

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BWI    LAT=  39.18 LON=  -76.67 ELE=   154                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.5    -6.7    1020      46      85    0.00     546     530    MON 18Z 21-JAN   2.8    -5.5    1015      49      93    0.00     541     530    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.9    -7.0    1011      55      82    0.00     533     524    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.2   -15.9    1015      39       8    0.00     528     516    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -5.7   -19.1    1019      36      22    0.00     524     509    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.7   -18.1    1020      27      19    0.00     525     509    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -4.4   -17.6    1023      28      19    0.00     527     510    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.2   -19.8    1024      31      19    0.00     529     510    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.2   -20.4    1025      33      39    0.00     531     511    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -4.2   -18.5    1023      29      74    0.00     532     514    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.4   -15.3    1021      33     100    0.00     530     514    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -4.8   -15.3    1019      43     100    0.01     525     511    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.0   -17.8    1022      43      96    0.01     520     503    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -3.3   -18.0    1028      27      24    0.00     529     507    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -5.1   -17.1    1031      29      10    0.00     543     519    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -6.5   -14.8    1031      38       2    0.00     547     523    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -6.3   -14.0    1029      39      64    0.00     548     526    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.2   -13.7    1022      64      99    0.08     545     528    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -4.2    -9.9    1013      91      97    0.45     539     529    SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -6.2   -11.4    1011      88      54    0.11     531     522    SAT 12Z 26-JAN  -9.5   -13.3    1013      81      44    0.00     531     521    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.1   -16.2    1016      50      82    0.00     527     515    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -7.1   -17.2    1021      56      70    0.00     524     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -11.0   -15.2    1026      66      17    0.00     531     511    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -11.1   -11.1    1029      72      10    0.00     543     521    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.4    -7.3    1029      57      31    0.00     553     530    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -5.3    -4.8    1028      70      33    0.00     557     535    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -3.0    -2.1    1025      70      83    0.00     555     535    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -1.9    -4.6    1021      75      98    0.00     553     537    
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IAD....

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD    LAT=  38.95 LON=  -77.45 ELE=   322                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.1    -6.1    1020      46      79    0.00     546     531    MON 18Z 21-JAN   5.3    -5.2    1014      42      97    0.00     542     531    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.8    -6.9    1011      39      41    0.00     535     525    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.9   -16.0    1016      33       8    0.00     528     516    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -6.8   -19.5    1020      27      22    0.00     526     510    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.5   -18.0    1021      26      18    0.00     527     510    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -5.3   -17.5    1023      23      15    0.00     529     511    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.8   -19.6    1025      25      22    0.00     531     512    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.9   -20.3    1026      28      38    0.00     533     513    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -3.2   -17.8    1023      26      87    0.00     534     516    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.6   -14.1    1021      40     100    0.00     532     516    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -4.9   -14.2    1018      48     100    0.02     527     513    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.3   -17.5    1023      46     100    0.03     523     506    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -2.4   -17.0    1028      24      20    0.00     533     511    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -16.6    1031      38       5    0.00     546     521    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -6.2   -15.9    1031      29       3    0.00     549     525    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -6.0   -13.8    1028      27      54    0.00     549     527    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.7   -13.1    1020      68     100    0.14     546     530    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.8    -9.4    1013      93      96    0.39     539     528    SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0   -12.0    1013      91      42    0.02     532     522    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9   -15.1    1015      85      48    0.00     531     520    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.3   -16.6    1017      48      87    0.00     527     514    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -9.0   -17.3    1022      56      68    0.00     525     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6   -15.3    1027      70      12    0.00     533     512    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1   -10.8    1030      81      10    0.00     546     523    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.3    -6.9    1030      56      35    0.00     555     532    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -8.9    -4.2    1028      72      30    0.00     559     537    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -4.1    -1.6    1024      77      95    0.00     556     536    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.9    -4.1    1021      82      95    0.00     554     537    

 

Any other locations needed?

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IAD....

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD    LAT=  38.95 LON=  -77.45 ELE=   322                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.1    -6.1    1020      46      79    0.00     546     531    MON 18Z 21-JAN   5.3    -5.2    1014      42      97    0.00     542     531    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.8    -6.9    1011      39      41    0.00     535     525    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.9   -16.0    1016      33       8    0.00     528     516    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -6.8   -19.5    1020      27      22    0.00     526     510    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.5   -18.0    1021      26      18    0.00     527     510    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -5.3   -17.5    1023      23      15    0.00     529     511    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.8   -19.6    1025      25      22    0.00     531     512    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.9   -20.3    1026      28      38    0.00     533     513    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -3.2   -17.8    1023      26      87    0.00     534     516    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.6   -14.1    1021      40     100    0.00     532     516    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -4.9   -14.2    1018      48     100    0.02     527     513    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.3   -17.5    1023      46     100    0.03     523     506    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -2.4   -17.0    1028      24      20    0.00     533     511    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -16.6    1031      38       5    0.00     546     521    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -6.2   -15.9    1031      29       3    0.00     549     525    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -6.0   -13.8    1028      27      54    0.00     549     527    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.7   -13.1    1020      68     100    0.14     546     530    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.8    -9.4    1013      93      96    0.39     539     528    SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0   -12.0    1013      91      42    0.02     532     522    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9   -15.1    1015      85      48    0.00     531     520    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.3   -16.6    1017      48      87    0.00     527     514    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -9.0   -17.3    1022      56      68    0.00     525     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6   -15.3    1027      70      12    0.00     533     512    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1   -10.8    1030      81      10    0.00     546     523    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.3    -6.9    1030      56      35    0.00     555     532    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -8.9    -4.2    1028      72      30    0.00     559     537    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -4.1    -1.6    1024      77      95    0.00     556     536    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.9    -4.1    1021      82      95    0.00     554     537    

 

Any other locations needed?

Just to see if it differs from BWI at all, MTN? I have the output, but am out atm.

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IAD....

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IAD    LAT=  38.95 LON=  -77.45 ELE=   322                                            12Z JAN21                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 21-JAN  -1.1    -6.1    1020      46      79    0.00     546     531    MON 18Z 21-JAN   5.3    -5.2    1014      42      97    0.00     542     531    TUE 00Z 22-JAN   2.8    -6.9    1011      39      41    0.00     535     525    TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.9   -16.0    1016      33       8    0.00     528     516    TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -6.8   -19.5    1020      27      22    0.00     526     510    TUE 18Z 22-JAN  -3.5   -18.0    1021      26      18    0.00     527     510    WED 00Z 23-JAN  -5.3   -17.5    1023      23      15    0.00     529     511    WED 06Z 23-JAN  -6.8   -19.6    1025      25      22    0.00     531     512    WED 12Z 23-JAN  -7.9   -20.3    1026      28      38    0.00     533     513    WED 18Z 23-JAN  -3.2   -17.8    1023      26      87    0.00     534     516    THU 00Z 24-JAN  -4.6   -14.1    1021      40     100    0.00     532     516    THU 06Z 24-JAN  -4.9   -14.2    1018      48     100    0.02     527     513    THU 12Z 24-JAN  -6.3   -17.5    1023      46     100    0.03     523     506    THU 18Z 24-JAN  -2.4   -17.0    1028      24      20    0.00     533     511    FRI 00Z 25-JAN  -7.5   -16.6    1031      38       5    0.00     546     521    FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -6.2   -15.9    1031      29       3    0.00     549     525    FRI 12Z 25-JAN  -6.0   -13.8    1028      27      54    0.00     549     527    FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.7   -13.1    1020      68     100    0.14     546     530    SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -5.8    -9.4    1013      93      96    0.39     539     528    SAT 06Z 26-JAN -11.0   -12.0    1013      91      42    0.02     532     522    SAT 12Z 26-JAN -11.9   -15.1    1015      85      48    0.00     531     520    SAT 18Z 26-JAN  -4.3   -16.6    1017      48      87    0.00     527     514    SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -9.0   -17.3    1022      56      68    0.00     525     508    SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.6   -15.3    1027      70      12    0.00     533     512    SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.1   -10.8    1030      81      10    0.00     546     523    SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.3    -6.9    1030      56      35    0.00     555     532    MON 00Z 28-JAN  -8.9    -4.2    1028      72      30    0.00     559     537    MON 06Z 28-JAN  -4.1    -1.6    1024      77      95    0.00     556     536    MON 12Z 28-JAN  -2.9    -4.1    1021      82      95    0.00     554     537    

 

Any other locations needed?

 

 

GED or DOV if you could? Much appreciated! :)

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Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle.

 

So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.)  Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 another RWT (currently over Africa) should arrive and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. Disclaimer: As always there is the possibility of strong southerly flow ahead of any of these S/W so the stronger the S/W the stronger the brief 1-2 day period of southerly flow to warm things up for a minute.

 

 

 

 

So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F

 

 Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-11

 

 

 

Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above. 

 

I read the quoted part 1st

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