TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MTN LAT= 39.32 LON= -76.40 ELE= 23 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -2.0 -7.1 1020 45 86 0.00 545 529 MON 18Z 21-JAN 2.2 -5.8 1015 48 93 0.00 541 529 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 2.5 -7.3 1011 60 94 0.00 533 524 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.3 -15.9 1014 40 8 0.00 527 516 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -5.7 -18.8 1018 36 23 0.00 522 508 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -3.6 -18.1 1020 25 20 0.00 524 509 WED 00Z 23-JAN -4.7 -17.6 1022 29 20 0.00 526 509 WED 06Z 23-JAN -6.5 -19.9 1024 30 19 0.00 528 510 WED 12Z 23-JAN -7.4 -20.7 1025 32 39 0.00 529 510 WED 18Z 23-JAN -4.2 -18.7 1023 27 69 0.00 531 513 THU 00Z 24-JAN -4.9 -15.9 1021 31 100 0.00 529 513 THU 06Z 24-JAN -5.2 -15.9 1019 37 100 0.01 524 509 THU 12Z 24-JAN -6.5 -18.1 1022 38 94 0.01 519 502 THU 18Z 24-JAN -3.7 -18.7 1028 24 23 0.00 527 506 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -5.6 -17.2 1031 26 13 0.00 542 518 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -7.5 -14.6 1031 34 3 0.00 546 523 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -7.4 -13.9 1029 39 71 0.00 547 525 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.7 -13.8 1022 58 99 0.06 545 528 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -5.0 -10.0 1014 91 97 0.44 539 528 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -6.7 -11.5 1011 87 61 0.13 531 522 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -10.1 -12.9 1013 80 44 0.00 531 521 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -4.4 -16.1 1015 51 79 0.00 527 515 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -8.2 -17.3 1020 58 70 0.00 524 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -12.0 -15.0 1025 64 20 0.00 530 511 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -12.1 -10.9 1029 72 11 0.00 541 520 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.6 -7.4 1028 58 30 0.00 552 530 MON 00Z 28-JAN -5.9 -4.9 1028 73 31 0.00 557 535 MON 06Z 28-JAN -3.7 -2.4 1025 73 79 0.00 554 535 MON 12Z 28-JAN -2.6 -4.8 1021 77 98 0.00 553 536 Much appreciated, impressive. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 red it .5"+ blue is .75"+.. tho my tracing sucks a bit. Untitled-3.jpg Awesome Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hour 105 on the EURO. What exactly are the units of these wunderground maps for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I confess my biggest fear is suppressed. Somewhere between GFS and EURO would be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 KOKV, thanks ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OKV LAT= 39.15 LON= -78.15 ELE= 728 12Z JAN21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 21-JAN -1.5 -7.0 1019 47 91 0.00 544 529 MON 18Z 21-JAN 4.4 -6.3 1013 38 95 0.00 540 529 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -0.3 -10.4 1013 50 23 0.00 532 522 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -5.8 -16.6 1016 38 11 0.00 526 513 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -8.7 -20.0 1021 31 23 0.00 524 509 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -5.0 -18.1 1022 21 26 0.00 525 509 WED 00Z 23-JAN -6.9 -18.1 1024 22 19 0.00 529 510 WED 06Z 23-JAN -8.6 -19.9 1026 27 27 0.00 530 511 WED 12Z 23-JAN -10.0 -20.4 1026 31 43 0.00 533 513 WED 18Z 23-JAN -4.3 -17.2 1023 20 91 0.00 534 516 THU 00Z 24-JAN -5.3 -14.4 1020 33 98 0.00 532 516 THU 06Z 24-JAN -6.6 -14.3 1019 53 96 0.02 526 512 THU 12Z 24-JAN -7.8 -17.5 1024 55 96 0.04 523 505 THU 18Z 24-JAN -3.3 -16.8 1029 19 29 0.00 535 513 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -7.5 -16.5 1031 28 4 0.00 546 522 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -7.7 -15.9 1031 30 11 0.00 549 525 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -7.1 -14.0 1027 25 66 0.00 548 528 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -7.0 -14.2 1020 70 99 0.19 544 529 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -7.4 -10.7 1013 91 95 0.30 536 526 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -10.8 -13.4 1014 89 47 0.01 532 521 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -12.3 -16.3 1016 83 69 0.00 531 518 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -5.4 -16.9 1018 46 88 0.00 526 512 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -11.0 -17.2 1023 60 70 0.00 526 508 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -13.8 -16.0 1028 72 13 0.00 535 513 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -13.2 -10.3 1030 80 13 0.00 548 525 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.8 -7.2 1030 55 42 0.00 556 532 MON 00Z 28-JAN -5.4 -3.6 1027 58 25 0.00 558 537 MON 06Z 28-JAN -3.9 -2.1 1024 72 94 0.00 555 537 MON 12Z 28-JAN -2.6 -4.2 1021 76 92 0.00 554 537 Ok, I'll stop clogging the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What exactly are the units of these wunderground maps for the Euro? I think that shows 1-2, 2-3 but may be mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ok, I'll stop clogging the thread Many thanks. Shows Winchester at exactly 0.5". I also see 0.8 Wed night. With this cold that might be more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The reason the euro is colder is because it has a more southern track. It has cold and a good storm track. If the low cuts to Lake Erie we are not going to get a significant snow here no matter how much cold air you put in here the day before. I was being a smartass and replied to ian as such. I do believe that getting a solid front end thump out of a relatively weak system that passes over or just north gets plenty of help from an arctic airmass or very deep continental cold airmass at onset. But I would be the last person to honestly say that we *have* to have arctic air for snow. But there are definitely setups where it helps a lot. Especially with a stale antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Many thanks. Shows Winchester at exactly 0.5". I also see 0.8 Wed night. With this cold that might be more than an inch. Man. I would take .5 with those temps in a heartbeat. Would be a very nice event. I hope the Euro is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like another night of staying up for the Euro..... let's hope we see another "Euro!!!" and not a "Next" out of zwyts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think weenies can take some solace with the fact that pretty much all solutions are showing a uniform area of precip that isn't leaving anybody out of the game. I know wwxlvr luvs this. Now there are indications that the departing clipper thurs helps carve out the cold a bit better. Even if the track jumps back n we still can count on accum snow based on the various solutions. If the clipper ends up being a bit more amped it could lead to a more suppre......I'll shut the ef up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think weenies can take some solace with the fact that pretty much all solutions are showing a uniform area of precip that isn't leaving anybody out of the game. I know wwxlvr luvs this. Now there are indications that the departing clipper thurs helps carve out the cold a bit better. Even if the track jumps back n we still can count on accum snow based on the various solutions. If the clipper ends up being a bit more amped it could lead to a more suppre......I'll shut the ef up now. Good thing you shut up haha, just messing with you. The trend for clippers of late has been to stay to not amp up too much, we haven't really seen any super clippers at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think that shows 1-2, 2-3 but may be mistaken Right. Didn't want to show that for a specific frame, they are additional frames for more accum. west and going east. East KY gets blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think weenies can take some solace with the fact that pretty much all solutions are showing a uniform area of precip that isn't leaving anybody out of the game. I know wwxlvr luvs this. Now there are indications that the departing clipper thurs helps carve out the cold a bit better. Even if the track jumps back n we still can count on accum snow based on the various solutions. If the clipper ends up being a bit more amped it could lead to a more suppre......I'll shut the ef up now. You got it Bob. I hope now that we see very modest ticks back north. We have a good working margin on the cold. Slight shifts north at this point just puts us in heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Right. Didn't want to show that for a specific frame, they are additional frames for more accum. west and going east. East KY gets blasted. Pretty sure this fits right into the pocket of tenmen johnson's recipe for ma snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 my analog, 3/9/99 Bingo, nailed it. I definitely agree. Done some research on that one, looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Folks, The 12Z ECMWF is now doing exactly what the conceptual model would suggest, and what we said a few days ago, with the antecedent arctic airmass. No way would a surface low track due E through the OH Vly through the Appalachians and into the mid Atlantic like the GFS would suggest. The EC now shows a more typical Miller B setup with the surface low from BNA to the coastal front near CAE/CHS...then NE crossing the NC outer banks. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 my analog, 3/9/99 The surface isn't a bad match but the 500 pattern looks quite a bit different. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0309.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 my analog, 3/9/99 I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 yeah...I just made it up off the top of my head as a quasi-joke because it gave us a lot of snow during the day in cold air with an OV low I was going for that because of the low moving up out of the OV as well, and the satellite images are interesting, think we could see that coming up as well. I love some daytime heavy snow, hope we get a lot of daytime into some nighttime, wanna remember both heavy snow at day and night, snowed hard during 12/26 last month but only for an hour in there with mdt snow the rest of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is a pretty sweet snowstorm pattern It's a really nice looking 500h for a snowstorm. Now we just need it to be there at 48 hours ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I had something out of the office at 12:30 and just walked back in I need to stay away for all the Euro runs it doesn't get any better than this for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Timing of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL. What ever happened to that crazy map thread. This made me think of it. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I had something out of the office at 12:30 and just walked back in I need to stay away for all the Euro runs it doesn't get any better than this for us It actually can....get a little more spin in the upper levels and we can get a solid 3-6" waa and another 2-4" from the deform on the back of the comma. Plenty of runs to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is a pretty sweet snowstorm pattern :drool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It actually can....get a little more spin in the upper levels and we can get a solid 3-6" waa and another 2-4" from the deform on the back of the comma. Plenty of runs to go... And that in addition to the rumored ratios everyone was talking about a few days ago haha, but seriously thicknesses do support healthy ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 euro looks quite a bit better than GFS at the same time, especially with heights rising east of that vortex off the west coast...perhaps the reason for the better solution? I think that is much of the reason. Allows for more downstream digging. Alos, I think the euro was a little stronger with the Thursday clipper event which also helps with more cold air and some confluence across new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I usually don't like seeing a vortex over BC, but it actually helps pump heights over Baffin Island....The most likely piece to be wrong because it is a euro bias is that trough off southern CA, which if it wasn't there would probably suppress the storm even more which may or may not help us... Post that same map from a month ago..... I bet you don't mind seeing the vortex after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think that is much of the reason. Allows for more downstream digging. Alos, I think the euro was a little stronger with the Thursday clipper event which also helps with more cold air and some confluence across new england. I've been joking around more than usual today but I do agree about the clipper holding a big piece of the puzzle. I suppose hedging that it ends up being a bit stronger is not unreasonable. Especially once it spends some time over the atlantic. The gfs solution is fine too but there are definitely enough hints being dropped that a more southern track on fri isn't just a fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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