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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Is the ukie a model we should even be paying attention to? I never have. The only time I see it posted is when it's the best model for snow in our yards. If it's the worst model then everyone says the ukie sucks and don't pay attention to it. 

It is supposedly the second best model in verification scores, but I think that is just at 500mb or something. It always seems to do crazy things with the surface.

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Is the ukie a model we should even be paying attention to? I never have. The only time I see it posted is when it's the best model for snow in our yards. If it's the worst model then everyone says the ukie sucks and don't pay attention to it. 

 

I would say the only two that I pay closer attention to are the Euro and GFS..... but I'm a weenie

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Comparing to the gfs you can see that the hp across the N is stronger (1030 vs 1027) and the lp is 2mb stronger. I guess you can say that stronger hp will help with a track further south. But why choose the ukie as being the right way to go here? 

 

It's just one of many possible solutions at this time range.  The gfs solution also is still in play. 

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ggem looks like a nice front end thump...saw that in the New York thread. DGEX is a monster for PA and NJ but still gives us that reoccurring theme of 2-4 or so

Yea gem is a 2-4 locally higher for northern spots, and the DGEX starts DC out as snow with temps of 25 and .1-.15 on that frame, then delivers .6+ on the next frame with the surface temp still below freezing, around 30. Could mix some in there, but 3-5 I'd say and a nice wintry mixture, so all frozen on the DGEX. 

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Yea gem is a 2-4 locally higher for northern spots, and the DGEX starts DC out as snow with temps of 25 and .1-.15 on that frame, then delivers .6+ on the next frame with the surface temp still below freezing, around 30. Could mix some in there, but 3-5 I'd say and a nice wintry mixture, so all frozen on the DGEX. 

 

GGEM total precip map puts DC in the 20-25mm range which would be .78-.98"...... not sure what ptype would be throughout the event.

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