BTJustice Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nope....come on man.....we're still 100+ hours out. I refuse to get excited about every 00z run, only to give up after every 12z run. I don't have it in me. Come on man, that's why we're all here, for the excitement of 8:30a, 10:30a, 1:30p, 2:30p, 4:30p, 8:30p, 10:30p, 1:30a If there were no models or they were right 100% of the time this would be an incredibly boring hobby (obsession). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm witcha' on that then we hope for a reshuffle to a more favorable pattern after a warmup to something Matt's been saying/hoping IMO- any warm up will be quick and dirty. ENS guidance already liking the idea of re-building the ridge out west. PV still wobbling all over canada. Keep it focused on the eastern half and we're all good. GEFS and euro ens + the gfs op are pretty much set on the idea of the mjo entering 8 and moving towards 1. Strength of the wave is significant. Moreso than we've seen for years to be honest. If the 8-1-2 "promised land" really means anything, this looks to be the test coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Come on man, that's why we're all here, for the excitement of 8:30a, 10:30a, 1:30p, 2:30p, 4:30p, 8:30p, 10:30p, 1:30a If there were no models or they were right 100% of the time this would be an incredibly boring hobby (obsession). I hear ya, I've been here for every model run (including the 00z euro) for the past few days, it consumes me. And I agree, it would be boring if there was no uncertainty in the models. That doesn't mean I need to change my opinion on how this will end up after each and every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As much as guidance has jumped on this weeks system, it's pretty easy to see the obvious common theme. Slug of .25-50 waa precip in front of a so-so surface low track. Temps at onset all support snow. I don't think the envelope is a wide as people are making it out to be. Just look at the upper levels through the runs and ask yourself if you really think we get the low to track underneath us. If you say yes I would like to see the reasoning behind it. I'm not afraid of dry unless you call .25-.50 dry. Doubt we end up with less than .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As much as guidance has jumped on this weeks system, it's pretty easy to see the obvious common theme. Slug of .25-50 waa precip in front of a so-so surface low track. Temps at onset all support snow. I don't think the envelope is a wide as people are making it out to be. Just look at the upper levels through the runs and ask yourself if you really think we get the low to track underneath us. If you say yes I would like to see the reasoning behind it. I'm not afraid of dry unless you call .25-.50 dry. Doubt we end up with less than .2. People are scared because it has been many years since we have had a "normal" 4 inch snowfall across the area with cold temperatures (or period, really). The pattern has been either this blows up into a MECS/HECS or far more likely it just fizzles to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. It does look like there would be some front end snow. I think 4 inches is not very likely as it is not that strong of a system and the low is may go to the north which would introduce sleet into the equation. I agree that the runs are likely to jump around but think a track to the oH valley is the most likely solution which puts sleet firmly on the table and would probably keep accumulations down more in the 1-3 inch range though at this juncture it's still way too early to speculate on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It does look like there would be some front end snow. I think 4 inches is not very likely as it is not that strong of a system and the low is may go to the north which would introduce sleet into the equation. I agree that the runs are likely to jump around but think a track to the oH valley is the most likely solution which puts sleet firmly on the table and would probably keep accumulations down more in the 1-3 inch range though at this juncture it's still way too early to speculate on amounts. One of my weaknesses in looking at models is forgetting about the meat of the sandwich between 850 and the surface. Sleet didn't really enter my mind. I did look at thicknesses and thought it was close but for some reason I have a feeling this one is all snow. I'll stick with that and let you drop the sleet hammer as necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 One of my weaknesses in looking at models is forgetting about the meat of the sandwich between 850 and the surface. Sleet didn't really enter my mind. I did look at thicknesses and thought it was close but for some reason I have a feeling this one is all snow. I'll stick with that and let you drop the sleet hammer as necessary. If I could get 1"+ from Christmas Eve, I feel pretty confident with saying 2-3" before totally taint sets in otoh, sleet glaciates the snow pack and has it stick around and with the projected temps after the storm, we would be a relatively happy bunch I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I've been expecting a cold sleet storm. Too many days of that 1994 analog showing up recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IMO- any warm up will be quick and dirty. ENS guidance already liking the idea of re-building the ridge out west. PV still wobbling all over canada. Keep it focused on the eastern half and we're all good. GEFS and euro ens + the gfs op are pretty much set on the idea of the mjo entering 8 and moving towards 1. Strength of the wave is significant. Moreso than we've seen for years to be honest. If the 8-1-2 "promised land" really means anything, this looks to be the test coming up. I agree that the cold should hang on longer. We all know the models tend to break down patterns faster than what actually happens. I hope for once that works in our favor. When will the Friday vort be sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 People are scared because it has been many years since we have had a "normal" 4 inch snowfall across the area with cold temperatures (or period, really). The pattern has been either this blows up into a MECS/HECS or far more likely it just fizzles to nothing. Part of it has to do with the lack of the pv or actic air in canada. At least I think so in my opinion. It's been a weird stretch since about 07. I like some of the papers written about the lack of ice on the atlantic side of the polar regions and the persistent blocking hp in siberia (for a difference discussion though). There's been tongues stuck to flagpoles all over russia, china, and europe the last couple years. No arguing that. Just speculation but the whole "mecs" or nothing has some merit. Marginals in the past that used bring 1-3 / 2-4 now bring mixed slop and rain for quite a few years running now. It takes a wrapped up system to bring cold continental air down from canada for all snow. Even with the crazy blocking of 09-10 it wasn't "cold" like it has been in the past. You have to go back to the 70's to find hl blocking like we had that year (ala jan 77, feb 78, jan 79). The difference in the 70's was that it was damn cold. There were a few shots in the mid 80's and even 04-05? i think. But when you look at the blocking setup in 09-10 you would think the bay froze over again. Not the case at all and it's not because "it's a warmer world" either. The real cold is favoring the other side of the world right now. Cold continental air isn't the same. Like others have stated, we don't need artic air s of 40 to get snow but nobody can convince me that it doesn't help having a big tornado of artic air spinning around hudson bay when marginal events approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Better than suppressed and dry. I'll take it. Precip. Get it here. That's priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I agree that the cold should hang on longer. We all know the models tend to break down patterns faster than what actually happens. I hope for once that works in our favor. When will the Friday vort be sampled? I think a warmup it fairly certain though. This first shot will retreat if/when we get a big dig out west or a cutter. I think the optimism should be that any dig out west will be transient in nature and the fact that the pv is wobbling all over canada. Doesn't take much of a bend to keep us cold. A good example is looking at some of the flatter looks @ 500 and then jump to the surface and see that's it's still pretty chilly. Flat looks in Dec were almost shorts worthy. We're all paranoid as broke meth heads right now but we are definitely in a much better pattern over the longer term than we have been in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 One of my weaknesses in looking at models is forgetting about the meat of the sandwich between 850 and the surface. Sleet didn't really enter my mind. I did look at thicknesses and thought it was close but for some reason I have a feeling this one is all snow. I'll stick with that and let you drop the sleet hammer as necessary. In these kinds of cases the warm layer is often above 850. Here's the GFS sounding at 102 hrs over you house (or near it). Note where the warming is, even with the 850 temps being below freezing your can get sleet. This particular sounding still probably would be snow if the sounding were perfect but sleet would be coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 In these kinds of cases the warm layer is often above 850. Here's the GFS sounding at 102 hrs over you house (or near it). Note where the warming is, even with the 850 temps being below freezing your can get sleet. This particular sounding still probably would be snow if the sounding were perfect but sleet would be coming soon. Make perfect sense and thank you for the sounding. If the worst thing I have to worry is sleet then worry won't even enter the picture. Give me the first 2/3rds to 3/4ths as snow hitting frozen ground and all is right with the world. All snow and I drink an extra beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z UKIE came down south...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Make perfect sense and thank you for the sounding. If the worst thing I have to worry is sleet then worry won't even enter the picture. Give me the first 2/3rds to 3/4ths as snow hitting frozen ground and all is right with the world. All snow and I drink an extra beer. I didn't show the sounding because I think it is going to be right though I do favor the Oh valley track but to show that you have to be careful analyzing Ptype issues with such a track even if the 850 looks cold. Heck, we still could have the Euro track or last night's UKMET. The models probably will continue to waffle between track options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z UKIE came down south...... Where is it when it crosses the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Make perfect sense and thank you for the sounding. If the worst thing I have to worry is sleet then worry won't even enter the picture. Give me the first 2/3rds to 3/4ths as snow hitting frozen ground and all is right with the world. All snow and I drink an extra beer. GFS drops .3" qpf up to that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I didn't show the sounding because I think it is going to be right though I do favor the Oh valley track but to show that you have to be careful analyzing Ptype issues with such a track even if the 850 looks cold. Heck, we still could have the Euro track or last night's UKMET. The models probably will continue to waffle between track options. I know Wes. Pointing out important stuff like this helps me not jump to conclusions too quickly. 3" of snow with some sleet is the new MECS anyways. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Where is it when it crosses the mountains? The 00z run FWIW had the low moving across C VA for reference Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 00z run FWIW had the low moving across C VA for reference Wes I knew that, I thought somehow he had gotten the 12Z version somehow. that seemed awful early for the 12Z run but I was hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I knew that, I thought somehow he had gotten the 12Z version somehow. that seemed awful early for the 12Z run but I was hoping. 96 and 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks current to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks current to me.... It is... too bad we don't have a 108 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think UKMET would be the best track for both you guys and me in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think UKMET would be the best track for both you guys and me in Philly. I don't like the way you're looking at me when you said that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 96 and 120 It looks like it would reform ust to our south and would give us snow. Not a bad look with the high pressure up to our north at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Is the ukie a model we should even be paying attention to? I never have. The only time I see it posted is when it's the best model for snow in our yards. If it's the worst model then everyone says the ukie sucks and don't pay attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Comparing to the gfs you can see that the hp across the N is stronger (1030 vs 1027) and the lp is 2mb stronger. I guess you can say that stronger hp will help with a track further south. But why choose the ukie as being the right way to go here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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