WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anybody with UKIE data for Friday. HPC leaning on it heavily for their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z GFS has the clipper wed night...maybe we can sneak out an inch It actually has two light snows, the clipper Thursday morning and not a clipper but weak low Friday. Right now I'd settle for either one. How much QPF did the euro have over us for the second event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It actually has two light snows, the clipper Thursday morning and not a clipper but weak low Friday. Right now I'd settle for either one. How much QPF did the euro have over us for the second event? Looked like about .4 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anybody with UKIE data for Friday. HPC leaning on it heavily for their forecast. It has a 1005 low going across Richmond which should be far enough south for snow. The product doesn't give precip beyond 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looked like about .4 for the area. So wetter than the GFS. That's somewhat encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It has a 1005 low going across Richmond which should be far enough south for snow. The product doesn't give precip beyond 72 hrs. Wes, is that a free product? I've looked at times for ukie pressures beyond 72 and have never found them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wes, is that a free product? I've looked at times for ukie pressures beyond 72 and have never found them. Yep http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It actually has two light snows, the clipper Thursday morning and not a clipper but weak low Friday. Right now I'd settle for either one. How much QPF did the euro have over us for the second event? BWI-.44" DCA-.36" IAD-.31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yep http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Dang, I had that one all along and had only used it for precip. Does that low have the look of one that has transferred from the OV to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 So wetter than the GFS. That's somewhat encouraging. No last night's 0Z GFS run was wetter than the 0Z EURO for Friday's event if that is what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 No last night's 0Z GFS run was wetter than the 0Z EURO for Friday's event if that is what you meant. I was comparing it to the 06Z GFS which looks drier than the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z GFS=careful what you wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dang, I had that one all along and had only used it for precip. Does that low have the look of one that has transferred from the OV to you? Unless I am mistaken, the answer is no. It just tracks basically WSW to ENE and stays south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z GFS=careful what you wish for Don't do it Mitch. All morning I've wondered if we are put in a position of wishing this north. I hate that worse than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 You guys have seen me post it many times....dry is always my biggest worry. Please don't let us get screwed to the south again. GFS S/SE bias at this time frame, I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 after the end of the run, NAM would take the storm into the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 after the end of the run, NAM would take the storm into the Great Lakes Last week at 84 hours the the NAM was taking the cut off into the lakes. Once it got under 60 hours it was in the ballpark and within 48 hours it was fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Last week at 84 hours the the NAM was taking the cut off into the lakes. Once it got under 60 hours it was in the ballpark and within 48 hours it was fairly good. I didn't say it was right, I just said what it was doing though that happens to be what has been happening most of the season (to our west) with the exception of the cut off low from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I didn't say it was right, I just said what it was doing though that happens to be what has been happening most of the season (to our west) with the exception of the cut off low from last week Yeah it seems like your area has been unlucky for a while now. Rooting for you guys, I will be in DCA this week, although might hit the road on Friday if it ends up looking like a big storm, don't want to get snowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 after the end of the run, NAM would take the storm into the Great Lakes I know these past few winters have been horrendous but stay away from extrapolating the NAM after 84, just making it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like it's coming north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 seems like the NAM and maybe now the GFS are moving that day 3 clipper through faster than last night's runs which allows for heights to rise in front of the main vort still waiting for the verdict of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 yeah, GFS is north again this is going to go one for 3+ more days folks so get used to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it's still below freezing at the surface for just about all the event...another front end thumper I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I've been real quiet on this one. It's best to let things be and not get hung on every model until you get at least 2-3 runs in a row showing the same thing. I just don't think that's gonna happen here. A relatively weak system with limited forcing, ull support and a so-so track is going to bounce quite a bit with solutions. I suppose the surface/850 lows could pass south but I would bet over us or just north. It's all about the front end I think. But I hope I'm wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS S/SE bias at this time frame, I'm not too worried. How about now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I've been real quiet on this one. It's best to let things be and not get hung on every model until you get at least 2-3 runs in a row showing the same thing. I just don't think that's gonna happen here. A relatively weak system with limited forcing, ull support and a so-so track is going to bounce quite a bit with solutions. I suppose the surface/850 lows could pass south but I would bet over us or just north. It's all about the front end I think. But I hope I'm wrong of course. yep it will be all over the place all week with an occasional agreement by the GFS/Euro then a split between the 2 as long as everyone knows that, then this is nothing more than weenie exercises that build character! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 yep it will be all over the place all week with an occasional agreement by the GFS/Euro then a split between the 2 as long as everyone knows that, then this is nothing more than weenie exercises that build character! I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 How about now? Nope....come on man.....we're still 100+ hours out. I refuse to get excited about every 00z run, only to give up after every 12z run. I don't have it in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. I'm witcha' on that then we hope for a reshuffle to a more favorable pattern after a warmup to something Matt's been saying/hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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