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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Last week at 84 hours the the NAM was taking the cut off into the lakes.  Once it got under 60 hours it was in the ballpark and within 48 hours it was fairly good.

I didn't say it was right, I just said what it was doing

though that happens to be what has been happening most of the season (to our west) with the exception of the cut off low from last week

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I didn't say it was right, I just said what it was doing

though that happens to be what has been happening most of the season (to our west) with the exception of the cut off low from last week

Yeah it seems like your area has been unlucky for a while now. Rooting for you guys, I will be in DCA this week, although might hit the road on Friday if it ends up looking like a big storm, don't want to get snowed in.

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I've been real quiet on this one. It's best to let things be and not get hung on every model until you get at least 2-3 runs in a row showing the same thing. I just don't think that's gonna happen here. 

 

A relatively weak system with limited forcing, ull support and a so-so track is going to bounce quite a bit with solutions. 

 

I suppose the surface/850 lows could pass south but I would bet over us or just north. It's all about the front end I think. But I hope I'm wrong of course. 

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I've been real quiet on this one. It's best to let things be and not get hung on every model until you get at least 2-3 runs in a row showing the same thing. I just don't think that's gonna happen here. 

 

A relatively weak system with limited forcing, ull support and a so-so track is going to bounce quite a bit with solutions. 

 

I suppose the surface/850 lows could pass south but I would bet over us or just north. It's all about the front end I think. But I hope I'm wrong of course. 

yep

it will be all over the place all week with an occasional agreement by the GFS/Euro then a split between the 2

as long as everyone knows that, then this is nothing more than weenie exercises that build character!

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yep

it will be all over the place all week with an occasional agreement by the GFS/Euro then a split between the 2

as long as everyone knows that, then this is nothing more than weenie exercises that build character!

 

I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? 

 

Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. 

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I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? 

 

Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. 

I'm witcha' on that

then we hope for a reshuffle to a more favorable pattern after a warmup to something Matt's been saying/hoping

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