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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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OK on the Ravens crack but we're 5 days out on the snow so I don't think gloating over that right now is the right move

Please. You take this wayyyyy too seriously. I wasn't gloating...I don't play the silly regional weather forum competition crap. New England will get their snow...from the clipper, and more than likely from the end of the week storm. 

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Lol back to a cold snow. DT must feel like an idiot

What's funny is that I think he just called this run BS on his FB page but failed to give his usual explanation why. I think he probably is a bit dismayed since he just out out his video.,

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Havent seen the UKIE or GGEM...have they come south as well? And we have yet to see the 0z EURO. Not sure I would say he should feel like an idiot based on the GFS, or the NAM extrapolated.

GGEM Precip panels are out and its way north... at 120 rain snow line runs through central PA, low is headed towards Cleveland.
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This is why I ignore all the hype about cold and the obsession by some with getting it cold here. Yes, its true that its not going to snow if its not cold, but we do not need arctic air to get a snowstorm. Many of our big snows had marginal cold at best. It is true that a cold air mass preceding a storm can take a marginal event and make it better, and we are not getting a good overrunning snow without cold, so if the choice is between cold and no cold...of course...but honestly why have people still not figured out that if the trough axis is no good and there is no confluence it does not matter how cold it is...it can be 10 degrees one day and 40 and rain the next. Without confluence once the storm cuts west of us...it will rain. I don't care how cold it is a day before. These storms ride the thermal boundary so we are never cold enough to be safe from a changeover here. We need the storm track to change, or nothing is going to save us. Not unless you will be happy with a bunch of 1" slop events.

You usually make good posts. This is not one of them.

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You usually make good posts. This is not one of them.

Then make your case and back it up with evidence. I know people get frustrated when its 33 and rain a few times in a season but none of those storms had a very good setup at H5 either. We had a marginal air mass and a marginal setup at H5 combined...no dice. the KU book is littered with examples of 6" plus snow events for our area where the airmass was marginal at best for snow but we had a good H5,H7,H850 track. Especially this time of year, from Jan 1 to Feb 10th or so...I would take a favorable storm track over a colder airmass EVERY time. The cold is only going to do us good if there is a block or confluence to allow CAD. If those are absent...it will warm before precip gets in 99 percent of the time. I admit if we have a very marginal event..having cold air in place will make or break it...but that is far less important then getting a favorable storm track. Our last 3 significant snows, Jan 2011, and the 2 Feb 2010 events had marginal cold preceding the snow. I honestly do not understand what the obsession is with getting cold ahead of the storm. Get a nice H5 low to track across southern VA, with a H7 and H850 low just south of us...and the cold wont be a problem this time of year 90 percent of the time.
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PS: to be fair Matt everyone has a different perspective on what they are looking for. If you just want to get some white on the ground, and are fine with a 1" front end mix event followed by slop/rain then having arctic air in place is great. If you want to get a 4" plus event, then you need a good storm track. So we might just be looking at things through different lenses here. I am in the same mold as Wes, 1-3" events do not really hold much interest for me. I do not begrudge anyone else enjoying them though. I tend to get excited for big ticket events, be it severe weather or snowstorms. If you are simply saying getting some frozen precip is easier with cold air...then you are correct and I will leave it at that.

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Then make your case and back it up with evidence. I know people get frustrated when its 33 and rain a few times in a season but none of those storms had a very good setup at H5 either. We had a marginal air mass and a marginal setup at H5 combined...no dice. the KU book is littered with examples of 6" plus snow events for our area where the airmass was marginal at best for snow but we had a good H5,H7,H850 track. Especially this time of year, from Jan 1 to Feb 10th or so...I would take a favorable storm track over a colder airmass EVERY time. The cold is only going to do us good if there is a block or confluence to allow CAD. If those are absent...it will warm before precip gets in 99 percent of the time. I admit if we have a very marginal event..having cold air in place will make or break it...but that is far less important then getting a favorable storm track. Our last 3 significant snows, Jan 2011, and the 2 Feb 2010 events had marginal cold preceding the snow. I honestly do not understand what the obsession is with getting cold ahead of the storm. Get a nice H5 low to track across southern VA, with a H7 and H850 low just south of us...and the cold wont be a problem this time of year 90 percent of the time.

I'm on a phone and doing something. But you are making 2 different points. If we know we are going to have a crappy setup. Which we know we are going to have this time and we know we are going to have most of the time in most winters and especially winters like this it gives us a huge margin of error with track if we have cold air. I don't have more time right now but you'd average less than 20" if you didn't get snow from these setups. And I'd average like 6".

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I'm on a phone and doing something. But you are making 2 different points. If we know we are going to have a crappy setup. Which we know we are going to have this time and we know we are going to have most of the time in most winters and especially winters like this it gives us a huge margin of error with track if we have cold air. I don't have more time right now but you'd average less than 20" if you didn't get snow from these setups. And I'd average like 6".

"this" setup is only going to work if the low does not cut way west of us. If we get a track similar to the GFS then we can do ok, but if this low tracks up over Lake Erie like the EC and GGEM are showing forget it...the cold is not going to save us. But I am not arguing your point about our averages...I probably do get about 15" a year from crap tracks but it all falls 2" at a time and I could care less. I basically only remember or care about 4" plus events. I dont care what my seasonal average snowfall is... I just want to get one nice significant snowfall in a season. I could pass on all the 1-3" insignificant events. If you care about your average, or if you just want to see a little frozen precip on the ground then having it cold is very important, and we are arguing apples and oranges here I think.
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PS: to be fair Matt everyone has a different perspective on what they are looking for. If you just want to get some white on the ground, and are fine with a 1" front end mix event followed by slop/rain then having arctic air in place is great. If you want to get a 4" plus event, then you need a good storm track. So we might just be looking at things through different lenses here. I am in the same mold as Wes, 1-3" events do not really hold much interest for me. I do not begrudge anyone else enjoying them though. I tend to get excited for big ticket events, be it severe weather or snowstorms. If you are simply saying getting some frozen precip is easier with cold air...then you are correct and I will leave it at that.

Yes. I get excited for the winter events that comprise 90% of my winter events. Not counting 09-10 I've had off the top of my head 7 4"+ events since 2/26/03. Sometimes I think you guys that average 30"+ need your own forum. My biggest event in the last 2 years was 1.25". This hobby already puts me on tilt. If I am only in it for 4" events I might as well just go hang myself

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"this" setup is only going to work if the low does not cut way west of us. If we get a track similar to the GFS then we can do ok, but if this low tracks up over Lake Erie like the EC and GGEM are showing forget it...the cold is not going to save us. But I am not arguing your point about our averages...I probably do get about 15" a year from crap tracks but it all falls 2" at a time and I could care less. I basically only remember or care about 4" plus events. I dont care what my seasonal average snowfall is... I just want to get one nice significant snowfall in a season. I could pass on all the 1-3" insignificant events. If you care about your average, or if you just want to see a little frozen precip on the ground then having it cold is very important, and we are arguing apples and oranges here I think.

Yes. Apples and oranges. I like winter. And you are like the general public just with more knowledge

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Yes. I get excited for the winter events that comprise 90% of my winter events. Not counting 09-10 I've had off the top of my head 7 4"+ events since 2/26/03. Sometimes I think you guys that average 30"+ need your own forum. My biggest event in the last 2 years was 1.25". This hobby already puts me on tilt. If I am only in it for 4" events I might as well just go hang myself

It can be pretty crappy up here in many years waiting on a big event... we are sorta feast or famine with those as well. It can happen, but its pretty rare that I get a major snow even here that Baltimore and DC are completely left out. The reason my average is so much higher is because when DC gets 1" I get 2-3. If I am getting 8" plus odds are the metro areas are at least getting a decent snowfall. I have gone plenty of seasons up here without a significant snowfall up here and simply nickel and dime stuff. I just don't get too bent out of shape anymore over it. I like what I like...and if I have to wait a few years sometimes to get it...oh well. Not the end of the world. You probably have a more healthy view of it by enjoying even the small events. I should try that sometime.
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It can be pretty crappy up here in many years waiting on a big event... we are sorta feast or famine with those as well. It can happen, but its pretty rare that I get a major snow even here that Baltimore and DC are completely left out. The reason my average is so much higher is because when DC gets 1" I get 2-3. If I am getting 8" plus odds are the metro areas are at least getting a decent snowfall. I have gone plenty of seasons up here without a significant snowfall up here and simply nickel and dime stuff. I just don't get too bent out of shape anymore over it. I like what I like...and if I have to wait a few years sometimes to get it...oh well. Not the end of the world. You probably have a more healthy view of it by enjoying even the small events. I should try that sometime.

You made sense until you used the word "healthy" to describe my relationship with snow

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