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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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the key is, of course, GFS brings everything south

the models will be playing with us all week, including well into Thursday night

 

Yes, indeed.  So we look forward to a long week of parsing all the latest guidance?  Hopefully this one will prove less a waste of time than just about everything since the Commutageddon storm two years ago.

 

Well to paraphrase Gimley in Lord of the Rings: Return of the King..."Certainty of disappointment weenie suicides, small chance of success...what are we waiting for?!" :lmao:

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how does p009 look?

Since you ask, the mean looks better than 12 z with temps and low position, so an early guess is that some are good. Do you not trust the ens members. I know you can't just go get one you like, but if you have several showing the same thing I think you have to give that some weight.

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only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again

it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out

This is why I ignore all the hype about cold and the obsession by some with getting it cold here. Yes, its true that its not going to snow if its not cold, but we do not need arctic air to get a snowstorm. Many of our big snows had marginal cold at best. It is true that a cold air mass preceding a storm can take a marginal event and make it better, and we are not getting a good overrunning snow without cold, so if the choice is between cold and no cold...of course...but honestly why have people still not figured out that if the trough axis is no good and there is no confluence it does not matter how cold it is...it can be 10 degrees one day and 40 and rain the next. Without confluence once the storm cuts west of us...it will rain. I don't care how cold it is a day before. These storms ride the thermal boundary so we are never cold enough to be safe from a changeover here. We need the storm track to change, or nothing is going to save us. Not unless you will be happy with a bunch of 1" slop events.
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