mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If you put that precip with Euro temps, you have all of it falling before 850s go above zero boy it would be fun if it was that easy, wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The 18z GFS gets us every time. I don't know if data collection is good 500 miles out in the Pacific, but that's where the energy is. I expect we've got a long way to go on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 the key is, of course, GFS brings everything south the models will be playing with us all week, including well into Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I don't know if data collection is good 500 miles out in the Pacific, but that's where the energy is. I expect we've got a long way to go on this. how does p009 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 boy it would be fun if it was that easy, wouldn't it? Easy no. A wetter Euro with its temps is possible though, especially if it blows that low up like it was doing. Gotta think positive. You'll live longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 how does p009 look? LOL, damn you Ian BTW, they're not out yet but you can be sure I'll let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 the key is, of course, GFS brings everything south the models will be playing with us all week, including well into Thursday night Yes, indeed. So we look forward to a long week of parsing all the latest guidance? Hopefully this one will prove less a waste of time than just about everything since the Commutageddon storm two years ago. Well to paraphrase Gimley in Lord of the Rings: Return of the King..."Certainty of disappointment weenie suicides, small chance of success...what are we waiting for?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 how does p009 look? Since you ask, the mean looks better than 12 z with temps and low position, so an early guess is that some are good. Do you not trust the ens members. I know you can't just go get one you like, but if you have several showing the same thing I think you have to give that some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 how does p009 look? They are all over the place. About 40% or so support the op. Probably just underscores the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 how does p009 look? Not as good as p002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 fwliw, 18z dgex likes the 2nd storm idea still as it sends the first low up to Lake Erie, similar to Euro, but does give us some back end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 fwliw, 18z dgex likes the 2nd storm idea still as it sends the first low up to Lake Erie, similar to Euro, but does give us some back end snow Which one is right more often? The DGEX or the CFS2? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Still a ways to go on this one. The ridging seems to relax a little bit as the storm starts to affect the MA and some of the energy slides off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Interesting how p002 managed to get the NRN stream out of the effin way and close off H5 over E KY. This is the only snowstorms we get this year, imaginary ones on ensemble members or the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Interesting how p002 managed to get the NRN stream out of the effin way and close off H5 over E KY. This is the only snowstorms we get this year, imaginary ones on ensemble members or the DGEX. yeah, it's more perturbing than being an ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 fyi, 18Z GFS text forecasts for the 3 airports: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIAD http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like it would be all frozen at IAD on Friday, almost .5 QPF. fyi, 18Z GFS text forecasts for the 3 airports: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIAD http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The NAM 84 hour super clipper will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The NAM 84 hour super clipper will save us yeah, I saw that and was just going to post it seems to move the northern stream through much faster than the other models way faster, in fact of course, if that happened, the possibilities down the road would be endless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM has BWI at 11 degrees at 12z Wed been a while since we've seen that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The NAM 84 hour super clipper will save us Agree. Looks interesting. NAM was the first model to pick up on the different solution with last weeks storm and GFS then followed suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Actually guys, I was being facetious. Of course, in this winter, who knows. It's 500 map at 84 is considerably different from GFS at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Big differences in 500 by 69 hours on gfs. More in line with nam than its own earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 only .29" falls at BWI; by Sat 6Z it's 24 degrees again it literally warms up to precipitate then gets immediately cold again and dries out This is why I ignore all the hype about cold and the obsession by some with getting it cold here. Yes, its true that its not going to snow if its not cold, but we do not need arctic air to get a snowstorm. Many of our big snows had marginal cold at best. It is true that a cold air mass preceding a storm can take a marginal event and make it better, and we are not getting a good overrunning snow without cold, so if the choice is between cold and no cold...of course...but honestly why have people still not figured out that if the trough axis is no good and there is no confluence it does not matter how cold it is...it can be 10 degrees one day and 40 and rain the next. Without confluence once the storm cuts west of us...it will rain. I don't care how cold it is a day before. These storms ride the thermal boundary so we are never cold enough to be safe from a changeover here. We need the storm track to change, or nothing is going to save us. Not unless you will be happy with a bunch of 1" slop events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Very similar to NAM at 84. Have no idea if that's good or bad. Would think at the least it'll be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Oh yeah, better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm not sure how that low is gonna run into and through that CAD and head to our north, but by God, it'll find a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Way different than 18z.. May get interesting but not for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 00z GFS through 111 looks better for us... but its later again... looks like a Friday night into Saturday deal when teh 18z GFS made it Thurs night into early Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm not sure how that low is gonna run into and through that CAD and head to our north, but by God, it'll find a way. that northern stream trough is just dying to suck it NNE, but we'll see now that we have a new turn of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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