WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:39 PM, usedtobe said: It has a 1005 low going across Richmond which should be far enough south for snow. The product doesn't give precip beyond 72 hrs. Wes, is that a free product? I've looked at times for ukie pressures beyond 72 and have never found them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:46 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Wes, is that a free product? I've looked at times for ukie pressures beyond 72 and have never found them. Yep http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:34 PM, usedtobe said: It actually has two light snows, the clipper Thursday morning and not a clipper but weak low Friday. Right now I'd settle for either one. How much QPF did the euro have over us for the second event? BWI-.44" DCA-.36" IAD-.31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:48 PM, usedtobe said: Yep http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Dang, I had that one all along and had only used it for precip. Does that low have the look of one that has transferred from the OV to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:40 PM, usedtobe said: So wetter than the GFS. That's somewhat encouraging. No last night's 0Z GFS run was wetter than the 0Z EURO for Friday's event if that is what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:54 PM, ravensrule said: No last night's 0Z GFS run was wetter than the 0Z EURO for Friday's event if that is what you meant. I was comparing it to the 06Z GFS which looks drier than the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z GFS=careful what you wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 1:54 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Dang, I had that one all along and had only used it for precip. Does that low have the look of one that has transferred from the OV to you? Unless I am mistaken, the answer is no. It just tracks basically WSW to ENE and stays south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 2:24 PM, mitchnick said: 6z GFS=careful what you wish for Don't do it Mitch. All morning I've wondered if we are put in a position of wishing this north. I hate that worse than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 12:16 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You guys have seen me post it many times....dry is always my biggest worry. Please don't let us get screwed to the south again. GFS S/SE bias at this time frame, I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 after the end of the run, NAM would take the storm into the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 2:52 PM, mitchnick said: after the end of the run, NAM would take the storm into the Great Lakes Last week at 84 hours the the NAM was taking the cut off into the lakes. Once it got under 60 hours it was in the ballpark and within 48 hours it was fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 2:55 PM, packbacker said: Last week at 84 hours the the NAM was taking the cut off into the lakes. Once it got under 60 hours it was in the ballpark and within 48 hours it was fairly good. I didn't say it was right, I just said what it was doing though that happens to be what has been happening most of the season (to our west) with the exception of the cut off low from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 3:02 PM, mitchnick said: I didn't say it was right, I just said what it was doing though that happens to be what has been happening most of the season (to our west) with the exception of the cut off low from last week Yeah it seems like your area has been unlucky for a while now. Rooting for you guys, I will be in DCA this week, although might hit the road on Friday if it ends up looking like a big storm, don't want to get snowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 2:52 PM, mitchnick said: after the end of the run, NAM would take the storm into the Great Lakes I know these past few winters have been horrendous but stay away from extrapolating the NAM after 84, just making it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like it's coming north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 seems like the NAM and maybe now the GFS are moving that day 3 clipper through faster than last night's runs which allows for heights to rise in front of the main vort still waiting for the verdict of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 yeah, GFS is north again this is going to go one for 3+ more days folks so get used to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it's still below freezing at the surface for just about all the event...another front end thumper I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I've been real quiet on this one. It's best to let things be and not get hung on every model until you get at least 2-3 runs in a row showing the same thing. I just don't think that's gonna happen here. A relatively weak system with limited forcing, ull support and a so-so track is going to bounce quite a bit with solutions. I suppose the surface/850 lows could pass south but I would bet over us or just north. It's all about the front end I think. But I hope I'm wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 2:44 PM, swimmatte said: GFS S/SE bias at this time frame, I'm not too worried. How about now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:07 PM, Bob Chill said: I've been real quiet on this one. It's best to let things be and not get hung on every model until you get at least 2-3 runs in a row showing the same thing. I just don't think that's gonna happen here. A relatively weak system with limited forcing, ull support and a so-so track is going to bounce quite a bit with solutions. I suppose the surface/850 lows could pass south but I would bet over us or just north. It's all about the front end I think. But I hope I'm wrong of course. yep it will be all over the place all week with an occasional agreement by the GFS/Euro then a split between the 2 as long as everyone knows that, then this is nothing more than weenie exercises that build character! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:09 PM, mitchnick said: yep it will be all over the place all week with an occasional agreement by the GFS/Euro then a split between the 2 as long as everyone knows that, then this is nothing more than weenie exercises that build character! I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:07 PM, Yeoman said: How about now? Nope....come on man.....we're still 100+ hours out. I refuse to get excited about every 00z run, only to give up after every 12z run. I don't have it in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:13 PM, Bob Chill said: I think we can be pretty optimistic with the waa precip out in front being all snow. That's a huge + with this system. Yea, it would be sweet and all to get on the north side of the surface low but that's just bonus at this point. Most everything that falls in front does so with the surface below freezing. Do we even know what the feels like anymore? Snow actually hitting the ground with the bl below freezing? Prob ok to feel comfortable with 1-3 / 2-4 area wide. Doesn't really look like a n-w jackpot either. Kinda uniform. At least to me anyways. I'm witcha' on that then we hope for a reshuffle to a more favorable pattern after a warmup to something Matt's been saying/hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:14 PM, swimmatte said: Nope....come on man.....we're still 100+ hours out. I refuse to get excited about every 00z run, only to give up after every 12z run. I don't have it in me. Come on man, that's why we're all here, for the excitement of 8:30a, 10:30a, 1:30p, 2:30p, 4:30p, 8:30p, 10:30p, 1:30a If there were no models or they were right 100% of the time this would be an incredibly boring hobby (obsession). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:16 PM, mitchnick said: I'm witcha' on that then we hope for a reshuffle to a more favorable pattern after a warmup to something Matt's been saying/hoping IMO- any warm up will be quick and dirty. ENS guidance already liking the idea of re-building the ridge out west. PV still wobbling all over canada. Keep it focused on the eastern half and we're all good. GEFS and euro ens + the gfs op are pretty much set on the idea of the mjo entering 8 and moving towards 1. Strength of the wave is significant. Moreso than we've seen for years to be honest. If the 8-1-2 "promised land" really means anything, this looks to be the test coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:18 PM, BTJustice said: Come on man, that's why we're all here, for the excitement of 8:30a, 10:30a, 1:30p, 2:30p, 4:30p, 8:30p, 10:30p, 1:30a If there were no models or they were right 100% of the time this would be an incredibly boring hobby (obsession). I hear ya, I've been here for every model run (including the 00z euro) for the past few days, it consumes me. And I agree, it would be boring if there was no uncertainty in the models. That doesn't mean I need to change my opinion on how this will end up after each and every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As much as guidance has jumped on this weeks system, it's pretty easy to see the obvious common theme. Slug of .25-50 waa precip in front of a so-so surface low track. Temps at onset all support snow. I don't think the envelope is a wide as people are making it out to be. Just look at the upper levels through the runs and ask yourself if you really think we get the low to track underneath us. If you say yes I would like to see the reasoning behind it. I'm not afraid of dry unless you call .25-.50 dry. Doubt we end up with less than .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 4:23 PM, Bob Chill said: As much as guidance has jumped on this weeks system, it's pretty easy to see the obvious common theme. Slug of .25-50 waa precip in front of a so-so surface low track. Temps at onset all support snow. I don't think the envelope is a wide as people are making it out to be. Just look at the upper levels through the runs and ask yourself if you really think we get the low to track underneath us. If you say yes I would like to see the reasoning behind it. I'm not afraid of dry unless you call .25-.50 dry. Doubt we end up with less than .2. People are scared because it has been many years since we have had a "normal" 4 inch snowfall across the area with cold temperatures (or period, really). The pattern has been either this blows up into a MECS/HECS or far more likely it just fizzles to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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