Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Midlo Snow Maker]

here is the old thread

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/

 

looks like the cold is coming naso much on the storm front though

 

 

here was the cfs out look for jan

 

.

 

and here is what we have so far

temps

 

 

 

 

precip

 

 

departures as of 1.18.13

 

dan +6.9

lyh +6.9

roa +8.2

cho +6.0

dca +5.9

iad +5.8

ric +5.1

orf +4.5

wal +6.0

 

 

6-10 day temps

 

 

 

 

precip

 

 

 

 

8-14 temps

 

 

precip

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thank you Midlo, for starting this thread. New mojo!

BTW, the highlight of the storm this week (since some only got clouds) was you sending Millz packing.

[Ian]

Cfs is a joke

[WinterWxLuvr]

Cfs is a joke

Amen. A blind guess would be better.

GFS 500 by 4.5 days pretty good difference from same time 18 hours ago. Looks like it would be hard for anything to pass north of us. We'll see later I guess.

[stormtracker]

Cfs is a joke

Agreed.

I'm liking the end of week potential. Cold is impressive. When was the last time DCA had highs in the 20's?

[stormtracker]

Amen. A blind guess would be better.

GFS 500 by 4.5 days pretty good difference from same time 18 hours ago. Looks like it would be hard for anything to pass north of us. We'll see later I guess.

I like the fact that we have sorta fresh cold air in place, instead of the usual crap marginal stuff.

[Bob Chill]

If the next week's system materializes it's going to be messy. Best case is having something pop quickly on the heels. Models aren't going to be consistent in any way shape or form until <d5 or so.

Slight encouragement with the +AO almost off the table now. ENS guidance had it going as much as +2-3sd's but now it looks to stay negative. Not really surprising.

ENS are favoring a slightly neg nao now too. Probably ineffective unless it sets up west but who knows. Can't really stress on that anyway. Maybe if the ss was active. We'll probably rely mostly on the pv directing storms vs a big block.

It's not looking like we end up in any type of -pna regime either. With our luck the trough will dig in the west so the storm track stays west and north of us but that's far from a certain thing like it was in Dec.

ENS guidance is latching onto the idea of phase 8 mjo in the near future.

Much uncertainty obviously. But none of that uncertainty points towards disaster....yet.

The warm looks in the lr are going away. That doesn't surprise me at all. I didn't expect a quick hit of cold and flip to warm.

Next weeks system will go through more changes on the models than Joan River's face. Let's just hope it looks better in the end.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Cfs is a joke

Don't tell Mitch.

 

Randy, I agree. 1st time all season I've been somewhat interested 6 days out.

[stormtracker]

Don't tell Mitch.

 

Randy, I agree. 1st time all season I've been somewhat interested 6 days out.

Yeah. It may be a mess here, but the somewhat fresh Arctic air is encouraging.

[Ian]

Agreed. I'm liking the end of week potential. Cold is impressive. When was the last time DCA had highs in the 20's?

about 2 yrs ago.. jan 22 2011 -- had three days 32 or less in that streak

[WinterWxLuvr]

Amen. A blind guess would be better.

GFS 500 by 4.5 days pretty good difference from same time 18 hours ago. Looks like it would be hard for anything to pass north of us. We'll see later I guess.

Ha! So much for that theory.

Edit: disclaimer-I don't think that lead system will be able to get that far north. This looks similar to the Christmas event. Got our high to the ne and cold air in place.

[stormtracker]

And of course after I type that, the GFS runs the low to our west.

[Bob Chill]

I think the primary going n&w is the most likely outcome. No good block or 50/50 and it's a NS dominated system. The better chance for frozen will be something trailing. System draws pretty solid off the gulf. Something is going to happen to our south. 

[Ian]

Come on we screw everything up. It will probably be 95 and rain fire before another cold snap

[Midlo Snow Maker]

And of course after I type that, the GFS runs the low to our west.

im watching for a secodary low on the front

[Midlo Snow Maker]

1000mb low in NC hr 162 hmmmm

[Bob Chill]

The area to watch imo is the second piece of energy trailing in the ns and phasing with the vorticity at the bottom of the trough. This is a decent look at the general idea.

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

im interested now the euro was showing the same thing on the front

[swva]

Still consistently developing the second low pressure.  That looks to be our best shot. I may be too far west on this run though.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

im watching for a secodary low on the front

It's certainly trying. Prior there is a huge CAD signature. Even though it seems to scour out I think it hangs tough. I'd take any type of frozen at this point.

[Ian]

Interesting but we don't do that kind of setup well. I'm not writing anything off as the cold will help but it's going to be an uphill battle as usual.

[Bob Chill]

It's a real subtle setup for sure. Not quite enough spacing between the 2 and not an ideal tilt to the trough but a zillion things needs to be resolved. 

 

I'm wondering if a further west track with the primary would be better. It's a classic convoluted and jacked up setup that will draw us all in until....

[usedtobe]

It's a real subtle setup for sure. Not quite enough spacing between the 2 and not an ideal tilt to the trough but a zillion things needs to be resolved. 

 

I'm wondering if a further west track with the primary would be better. It's a classic convoluted and jacked up setup that will draw us all in until....

 

I think it might be as long as there is time to get the cold air through us before any southern wave forms.  I also think that the primary low is more likely to go north of us than south. It's the trailing vort and what happens with it that is interesting but as Ian notes,  in the last 20 years or so, we've not done well with this type of set up.  That doesn't mean it can't happen, a strong enough vort especially on almost closing off a low and then going to our south just enough to put us in the deformation zone would be a nice surprise. 

[psuhoffman]

I think this has potential if all you want is to see some snow on the ground.  If you are looking for a big ticket event this is probably the wrong setup.  The primary is northern stream dominant and likely to originate too far north.  That means it will have a hard time staying to our south and will probably not have a nice big WAA precip push way out ahead that can get a lot of snow in here ahead of a cutter to our west.  The second wave has some potential but again, those rarely end up being big storms, but sometimes we cash in with a minor event.  I think we have some chance of an inch or two on either the front or the back end, so if you just want to break the snow drought its worth watching, but if you are looking for a 4" plus type event this is probably not it.  Just my 2 cents, and probably not even worth that. 

[Bob Chill]

I think it might be as long as there is time to get the cold air through us before any southern wave forms.  I also think that the primary low is more likely to go north of us than south. It's the trailing vort and what happens with it that is interesting but as Ian notes,  in the last 20 years or so, we've not done well with this type of set up.  That doesn't mean it can't happen, a strong enough vort especially on almost closing off a low and then going to our south just enough to put us in the deformation zone would be a nice surprise. 

 

I'm glad u mentioned the vort closing off. You can see it try on the run but can't do it and swings on out. But we are way far away from the even so I'm prepared for big swings in any direction. 

 

Another thing that is within the realm is front end flakes in the band of waa precip in front of the first low. That's far from resolved too. Even though the gfs isn't showing doesn't mean it isn't a real possibility.

 

Edit: just want to add that not matter which way you slice it and dice it, this is a very messy setup fraught with peril and heartbreak with maybe a gumball or plastic gold ring as the prize.   

[Ji]

I remember in 1994 this happened but we got 5 inches of sleet instead of a foot of snow:(

[Ian]

I think it might be as long as there is time to get the cold air through us before any southern wave forms.  I also think that the primary low is more likely to go north of us than south. It's the trailing vort and what happens with it that is interesting but as Ian notes,  in the last 20 years or so, we've not done well with this type of set up.  That doesn't mean it can't happen, a strong enough vort especially on almost closing off a low and then going to our south just enough to put us in the deformation zone would be a nice surprise. 

we're getting to the pt that we could use some .5" events to get our seasonal out of the gutter. tho i think you were calling for some moderate events in Feb...

[Ji]

Wes is going 12-20 in feb?

[Ian]

Wes is going 12-20 in feb?

i think he said 40" by the end of march

[aldie 22]

Its rain