MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 6z Nam precip totalhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 2-4" event on LI, 1-3" inland. Going a little conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 6z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 SREF continues to look very similar, even better if you are in NE PA and SE NY where it is now showing .25+ also, but slightly worse on Eastern Long Island. .25 line back to NYC then back through SE NY. .50 line is slightly east, just reaching the eastern tip of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 SREF still looks pretty good http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 SREF still looks pretty good Yes, you really have to think at this point that the globals just are not seeing this. The SREF has been very consistent. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref/09/sref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 SREF Snowfall probabilities for N NJ, NYC, Long Island greater than 1 inch of snow 90-100% greater than 2 inches of snow 50-60% for N NJ and NYC, 60-90% for Long Island greater than 4 inches of snow 10% for N NJ and NYC, 10-40% for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .25 - Inches QPF falling thru minus 10 to minus 12 air . prob gona yield 3 to 4 inches of snow accross Long Island . (and maybe the city too ) . I think if the park gets 2 ,people will be happy , I think the show is up closer to Boston . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Interesting that now the GEFS are depicting the Norlun feature over NJ into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam is a decent hit with the Norlun into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z NAM in line looks good about .25 accross Long Island , mayb even back into NYC minus 10 - minus 15 air , The real Norlun hammers Boston . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This could turn out to be a really nice event from eastern LI up through Boston. I'll be happy to get an inch while gladly watching one of these areas cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z NAM in line looks good about .25 accross Long Island , mayb even back into NYC minus 10 - minus 15 air , The real Norlun hammers Boston . .30 at Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .30 at Islip .30 at Islip its all under minus 15 air , gotta be 15 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .10 at Andover .10 at Sussex .11 at Morristown .11 at Somerset .13 at Caldwell .15 at Burlington-Monmouth Airport .16 at NYC .17 at Laguardia .19 at JFK .30 at Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 its all under minus 15 air , gotta be 15 to 1 ratios its all under minus 15 air , gotta be 15 to 1 ratios Yes, agree, probably 15:1 in eastern sections and 20:1 in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z NAM in line looks good about .25 accross Long Island , mayb even back into NYC minus 10 - minus 15 air , The real Norlun hammers Boston . If the norlun does set up, I think the models have made it very clear that it would be somewhere from the cape up until Boston, maybe even a little more north. Eastern LI could get in on the action too if they're lucky. Have any other models shown this feature besides the nam and the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the norlun does set up, I think the models have made it very clear that it would be somewhere from the cape up until Boston, maybe even a little more north. Eastern LI could get in on the action too if they're lucky. Have any other models shown this feature besides the nam and the gfs? SREFs showed it too. Though the full force of the norlun hits SNE, LI still gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the norlun does set up, I think the models have made it very clear that it would be somewhere from the cape up until Boston, maybe even a little more north. Eastern LI could get in on the action too if they're lucky. Have any other models shown this feature besides the nam and the gfs?SREF has been consistent with it, even before the NAM showed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Boston and the cape get killed with .75 liquid equivalent. With 20:1 ratios up there, they may get well more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the norlun does set up, I think the models have made it very clear that it would be somewhere from the cape up until Boston, maybe even a little more north. Eastern LI could get in on the action too if they're lucky. Have any other models shown this feature besides the nam and the gfs? High RES caught this first , prob too fine for the globals to have caught it . GFS and Euro have the clipper . just drier as expected this far out . The one wild card would be if you can get the surface feature to exit 75 - 100 miles south of AC ,( PROB ASKING TOO MUCH ) ..then those numbers increase . As it is right now Central New England coastline prob win with this. The air is minus 15 at 850 , so that .16 in NYC Is prob 2 inches . That .30 from Islip out East maybe 4- 5 . This is will also take temps down a few ticks in the models as well in the following few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Incoming for Wednesday night on 84 hr NAM, looks quite impressive and could have 20-40:1 ratios with 850's at -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Edit: not sure if the above link works. Try this. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam-hires&cycle=12&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Incoming for Wednesday night on 84 hr NAM, looks quite impressive and could have 20-40:1 ratios with 850's at -20 Incoming for Wednesday night on 84 hr NAM, looks quite impressive and could have 20-40:1 ratios with 850's at -20 Upton had it last nite , posted think ur gona need a 3rd thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Upton had it last nite , posted think ur gona need a 3rd thread .Yes, I saw that. Someone should make a thread. You want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Incoming for Wednesday night on 84 hr NAM, looks quite impressive and could have 20-40:1 ratios with 850's at -20 relax, this isn't hudson bay. forecasting ratios is already a very inexact science...mentioning 40:1 ratios is absolutely absurd for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yes, I saw that. Someone should make a thread. You want it? Nah brother , you do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 relax, this isn't hudson bay. forecasting ratios is already a very inexact science...mentioning 40:1 ratios is absolutely absurd for our region. Actually, 40:1 ratios happen when it's 0F to 9F from 700 mB to the surface or at least near the surface. It'll most likely happen N&W of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice little snowfall on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Actually, 40:1 ratios happen when it's 0F to 9F from 700 mB to the surface or at least near the surface. It'll most likely happen N&W of I-287. there will be no 40:1 ratios anywhere on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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