PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Euro control run picked this very spot many days ago. Remember the Canadian had it in this exact spot as well for a couple of runs a few days ago. They had it even stronger too. How many times have we seen this, where the models have it a week out, then lose it for 3 or 4 days, then bring it back. Something is wrong with the models in the 3-7 day range in big way often. I guess data is lost over the ocean or something? Maybe when the system is over land in Siberia the model does better then when it is out over the ocean, then it gets on land here and it gets picked back up. That is the only conclusion I can come up with to explain this often repeated pattern. As I said, there is much upside potential here. Just remember some of the blown up runs we saw about 4 days ago. Not saying it will get anywhere like those, but it does not take a lot of precip when it is this cold to get a lot of snow. I promise you I want it to stay where it is , however I agree above dont count your chickens these can make u giddy and break you`re heart within 24 hrs . Trust me Norlun troughs aren`t a dirty word they can crush where they set up . The models are picking up one at least in our forecast area , so hang tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 How much for sandy hook? Burlington-Monmouth airport .23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 How about New Rochelle, NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I promise you I want it to stay where it is , however I agree above dont count your chickens these can make u giddy and break you`re heart within 24 hrs . Trust me Norlun troughs aren`t a dirty word they can crush where they set up . The models are picking up one at least in our forecast area , so hang tight I really think this turns into a consolidated low. It seems to be trending that way all day today. I think it really bombs more as it hits the Delmarva. Just my guess. I don't like the Norlun trough idea. I remember the bombs that were shows about 4-5 days ago. The Euro Control run actually produced the storm in the exact same spot around DC, then took it off the Jersey coast, but it completely bombed it when it hit the Delmarva. I think there is much upside potential here, but I expect a more consolidated low, not a Norlun trough. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 How about New Rochelle, NY? Give me an airport code. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Do not count your chickens yet, the area of snow is very small so any shift can change everything. But at this time the trend is our friend. It can almost be like driving between Pulaski and Watertown .You go from a raging blizzard to flurries inside 30 mins . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Give me an airport code. KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Put down 4 inches of snow down Tues AM , and have -20 air come over the top of it , and Ray`s gona have to fix those automated numbers : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 KLGA .29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .29 Looks like a solid 3-5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Can someone put in KHPN and KBDR? Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 1234abc can you run K56N? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Gfs has light snow for the area at hr 48 and 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 More light snow at hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 .05+ on gfs and .10+ for eastern Li. Not much, but improvement from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 So far the nam is 2-4 and gfs .05-1 of snow... Srefs 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I really think this turns into a consolidated low. It seems to be trending that way all day today. I think it really bombs more as it hits the Delmarva. Just my guess. I don't like the Norlun trough idea. I remember the bombs that were shows about 4-5 days ago. The Euro Control run actually produced the storm in the exact same spot around DC, then took it off the Jersey coast, but it completely bombed it when it hit the Delmarva. I think there is much upside potential here, but I expect a more consolidated low, not a Norlun trough. Just my guess. You know my theory , You blow this storm up and send into the Candain Maratimes and you wreck the block you pump the SE RIDGE for friday and you are wet . So if you blow this one up , you better be under the heaviest axis or you can screwed twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Cannot tell much from the RGEM since it only goes to 48 but the surface low is forming nearly in the same place as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOWWHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MONDAYAFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLYTHURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTSDEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DEFORMATION BANDING SETS UP. SNOW TOLIQUID RATIOS WILL BE MORE OF 20 TO 1 AND 15 TO 1...WHICH ISCHARACTERISTIC OF A DRIER SNOW..... You may need a 3 rd thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This is one case where we might have a better shot since the pattern is quite suppressed, these tend to like to be more northeast but this pattern is sort of forcing this vort to have to track south and the surface low to develop off the Delaware. i still remember a killer norllunfrom when i lived in phl a few years ago, had to be at least 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The GFS is usually more accurate in this time frame, however, as somebody else pointed out, the ratio would be a very good one, so even lesser liquid amount could result in a few inches. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i still remember a killer norllunfrom when i lived in phl a few years ago, had to be at least 8 inches That was from 2008. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That was from 2008. I think. Early Feb 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i still remember a killer norllunfrom when i lived in phl a few years ago, had to be at least 8 inches Feb 2nd 2009 I believe. Not sure if it was a true Norlun, but it did trigger a gravity wave that enhanced the precip over my area to total just over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 ECMWF very dry, NYC gets .01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Feb 2nd 2009 I believe. Not sure if it was a true Norlun, but it did trigger a gravity wave that enhanced the precip over my area to total just over 6". 3rd. It was toward the end of the event. See the radar imagery: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09-FortDixDopplerRadarImagery.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 3rd. It was toward the end of the event. See the radar imagery: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09-FortDixDopplerRadarImagery.html I was in Glassboro in school at that time and I remember we got hit pretty good with that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 3rd. It was toward the end of the event. See the radar imagery: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09-FortDixDopplerRadarImagery.html Thanks, I forget to check your archive site. Memory is getting a bit fuzzy these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 First snowfall map from Upton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Upton going less then s inch for western half and 1-3 eastern half of forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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