Clipper Threat 1/22/13-1/23/13

[Edge Weather]

This was posted by a meteorologist in the New England forum in reference to the SREF's:

SO here is the deal on the SREFs. This does have potential to put down major snow in a narrow area. I buy the possibility of that if it is modeled as is. There is the key word...if. We really have no idea if that heavy snow will clip srn areas, move through SNE, or bomb in the Gulf of Maine. However, recall the inv trough in SE NH last winter that dropped 10" in about 4-5 hrs. We'll have that potential here..if not more thanks to the warm SST. The key is where this sets up, but if/when it does..it will dump on some area..perhaps parts of SNE...perhaps Stellwagen Bank.

[Edge Weather]

SREF's continue to look good, especially for Eastern Long Island where it still shows .50+ for the Eastern third of the island and .25+ back to NYC, .10+ for everyone else. Remember ratios should be at least 15:1

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Srefs are drier and further NE

[Edge Weather]

SREF 70-80% probability of more than 1 inch of snow. 40-70% chance of more than 2 inches of snow, 70% for NYC. 60-70% chance in NYC and Long Island for more than 2 inches of snow. 10-30% chance of more than 4 inches of snow across N NJ and 30-40% chance of more than 4 inches in NYC and 40-60% across Long Island, even has a 10-30% chance of 6+ inches of snow from NYC east across Long Island.

[Animal]

SREF 70-80% probability of more than 1 inch of snow.

Dude, we may get a an inch out west.

We don't get clippers that do the standard 1-3 anymore in the years prior..

please reade the mt holly NWS met forecast about winter.

His call for PHL

low around 6 inches this year

high - 14 inches

 

this winter was a cat prior to everything.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

SREF 70-80% probability of more than 1 inch of snow. 40-70% chance of more than 2 inches of snow, 70% for NYC. 60-70% chance in NYC and Long Island for more than 2 inches of snow. 10-30% chance of more than 4 inches of snow across N NJ and 30-40% chance of more than 4 inches in NYC and 40-60% across Long Island

 

That's great! Finally something to look forward to in my boring life!

[Edge Weather]

Dude, we may get a an inch out west.

We don't get clippers that do the standard 1-3 anymore in the years prior..

please reade the mt holly NWS met forecast about winter.

His call for PHL

low around 6 inches this year

high - 14 inches

 

this winter was a cat prior to everything.

Just saying what the model is saying. Not my prediction. Just the model output.

[TWCCraig]

That's great! Finally something to look forward to in my boring life!

 

Haha, me too! I get bored with weather when we get dry, snow-less patterns in winter.

[TWCCraig]

Are you guys using the right unit? On the E-Wall, I think each value represents 0.1" of precip, correct me if I'm wrong. If that's true, there is one SREF member that shows 15" of snow for central LI! (ARW2) Highly doubt that ofcourse.

 

[TWCCraig]

00z NAM juicer again

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Are you guys using the right unit? On the E-Wall, I think each value represents 0.1" of precip, correct me if I'm wrong. If that's true, there is one SREF member that shows 15" of snow for central LI! (ARW2) Highly doubt that ofcourse.

On a 15:1 ratio, that's 22.5" of snow.

[Guest Pamela]

A little blizzard for Long Island on the 0z NAM late Monday...

[PB GFI]

I mean , you have to be kdding me .....Response to NAM

[TWCCraig]

I mean , you have to be kdding me .....

 

21z SREF has 45-50% chance of 8"+ on LI Monday night. Hopefully the 0z global models trend with this too.

[PB GFI]

A little blizzard for Long Island on the 0z NAM late Monday...

Can we grab the NAM QPF ?

[Edge Weather]

There is also another clipper incoming through Illinois at 84 hrs, for Wednesday night for us.

[Guest Pamela]

Can we grab the NAM QPF ?

 

It is only out to hour 54....the station by station one, that is. 

 

Edit:  through hour 54...many stations on Long Island are at  0.40" LE. 

[PB GFI]

The NAM is starting to look exactly as I was thinking.  So much for the Norlun trough thing.  We have a developing low SE of DC that heads east to the Delmarva, then to about 50 miles off the NJ coast, then it heads east south of Long Island and Cape Cod, slowly strengthening the whole time, with ratios of 15-20:1.  This has the potential to strengthen even quicker when it hits the coast, so I see quite a bit of upside potential here. 

I have been taught that Norluns love SNE , i know Long Island has had success with these inverted troughs in the past .( you are seeing an inverted trough) .

The one caution is these mesoscale placements tend to wiggle on every run .

But the NAM is a pretty picture tonite .

[PB GFI]

There is also another clipper incoming through Illinois at 84 hrs, for Wednesday night for us.

Yeh 2 days ago , the  GFS had 2 small freatures one Tues AM , one Thrs AM . I wana get past Tues before looking at Wed nite

[Edge Weather]

This is pretty much exactly as I was thinking.  So much for the Norlun trough thing.  This is a low that starts to develop SE of DC then heads east to the Delmarva, then to 50 miles east of the Jersey coast, then moves east south of Long Island and south of Cape Cod, slowly strengthening as it heads east the whole time.  I believe there is much upside potential here as this low could easily strengthen more rapidly as it hits the coast near the Delmarva.  Upside potential is huge especially for Long Island. 

[SnowGoose69]

I have been taught that Norluns love SNE , i know Long Island has had success with these inverted troughs in the past .( you are seeing an inverted trough) .

The one caution is these mesoscale placements tend to wiggle on every run .

But the NAM is a pretty picture tonite .

 

This is one case where we might have a better shot since the pattern is quite suppressed, these tend to like to be more northeast but this pattern is sort of forcing this vort to have to track south and the surface low to develop off the Delaware.

[Mitchel Volk]

Some of the NAM data

                         Station ID: KNYC Lat:   40.78 Long:  -73.96                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z JAN 20, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr    Sfc Prs(mb):    1011.7 1007.5 1002.5 1004.9 1010.7 1012.7 1012.9 1009.5 1004.8  999.8 1002.9 1007.0 1011.4 1013.9 1015.9    Mean SLP (mb):  1017.6 1013.5 1008.6 1010.8 1016.8 1018.9 1019.2 1015.8 1010.9 1005.9 1009.1 1013.3 1017.8 1020.4 1022.4    2m agl Tmp (F):   42.2   36.1   33.8   39.3   30.3   25.4   24.6   28.8   28.1   27.5   20.2   20.3   18.7   15.0   12.5    2m agl Dewpt(F):  31.5   31.1   30.6   26.7   19.4   16.3   16.3   19.5   24.7   24.7   13.9    9.2   10.1    6.8    5.8    2m agl RH (%):      65     82     88     60     64     68     70     68     87     89     76     62     69     69     74    10m agl Dir:       209    214    222    277    287    289    253    201    134    312    306    294    288    287    279    10m agl Spd(kt):     8     14     14     18     14     10      4      6      8      9     18     18     15     13     12    6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.24   0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00    AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.02   0.26   0.27   0.27   0.27   0.27   0.27    Sfc CAPE (J/kg):   0.0    0.0    0.0   19.9    7.9    0.0    0.0   12.2    0.0   18.6   29.2   45.8   18.3   19.0   12.4    Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -0.4   -0.4   -0.8    0.0   -0.9   -0.2   -0.6   -0.2    0.0   -0.9    0.0   -0.5   -0.5   -0.2    0.0    0-3km Hel(J/kg): 209.4  247.3  290.7  -84.1  -16.2  136.5  147.9   24.2  146.2  204.2  121.4   67.1   86.7  121.2   56.9    Precip H20 (in):  0.28   0.33   0.34   0.24   0.21   0.23   0.29   0.33   0.32   0.22   0.12   0.10   0.10   0.09   0.09    Lifted Index©:  12.9   10.2    7.8   16.2   21.4   21.5   22.3   20.1   13.6   15.0   13.8   15.5   17.1   20.6   19.8    700mb VV(-ub/s):  -0.5   -1.8    2.9    1.0   -1.6   -1.7    0.5    2.3    4.3    7.5    0.5   -2.0   -3.0   -0.8   -1.1    Thk1000-500mb(m)5424.3 5415.5 5424.0 5364.7 5285.7 5252.4 5246.7 5241.4 5211.7 5168.7 5043.9 5024.5 5033.3 5025.2 5008.7    Thk1000-850mb(m)1329.4 1326.6 1318.3 1288.9 1266.0 1254.6 1254.4 1260.5 1272.0 1265.6 1241.2 1235.1 1233.3 1222.4 1217.7    Thk850-700mb(m):1543.3 1545.2 1548.5 1525.6 1498.2 1490.5 1484.9 1476.6 1476.5 1463.6 1425.7 1413.0 1415.0 1414.7 1413.0    SWEAT Index:     175.4  190.7  173.3  152.6  144.9  149.9  139.5  130.5  201.3  122.2  118.3  111.9  116.6   98.1  113.9    Total Totals Idx  24.2   26.4   42.0   27.5   18.3   11.1   14.1   23.9   36.9   33.2   37.2   33.9   30.2   22.4   24.2    Frz Hgt(ft amsl)  6465   6673   6746   1547    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    0WetBlbHgt(amsl)  2586   1399   3743    661  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000    Equil Prs (mb):   1012   1008   1002    849    849   1013   1013   1010   1005    885   1003    749    789    837   1016    Equil Hgt(amsl):   154    154    154   4543   4607    154    154    154    154   3298    154   7420   6287   4896    154    Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00    Conv Wind Gust:   52.8   60.5   58.9   36.1   16.1   17.5   17.7   16.2   16.1   12.3   10.4   10.5   11.2   10.3   11.0    Showalter Index:  13.5   11.1    7.9   17.8   23.1   22.6   23.4   20.9   13.9   16.1   14.5   16.4   17.9   21.3   20.4    Cap Strength©:-999.9 -999.9 -999.9   10.7   11.7 -999.9 -999.9    7.4    3.9    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 -999.9    Storm Dir (deg):   277    274    278    288    300    295    289    276    265    268    304    313    316    303    309    Storm Spd (kts):    30     35     42     42     38     41     40     38     39     31     26     26     27     26     27    2m HeatIndex(F):    42     36     34     39     30     25     25     29     28     28     20     20     19     15     13    2m WindChill(F):    42     26     23     29     19     14     18     22     19     18      4      5      4      0     -3  

[Edge Weather]

.13 at Andover

.17 at Morristown

.19 at Caldwell

.26 at NYC

.30 at JFK

.47 at Islip

 

ratios likely 15-20:1.  Nice.

[PB GFI]

It is only out to hour 54....the station by station one, that is. 

 

Edit:  through hour 54...many stations on Long Island are at  0.40" LE. 

12 to 1  ... 15 to 1 -  prob looking 5- 6 based off that . That a gift if we  can get it .

[Guest Pamela]

It is only out to hour 54....the station by station one, that is. 

 

Edit:  through hour 54...many stations on Long Island are at  0.40" LE. 

 

Snow over by hour 60...maximum L.E. looks like 0.70"...but this would likely be a better than 10:1 ratio situation...maybe more like 15:1. 

This would be the kind of snow that blows and drifts...

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

How much for sandy hook?

[PB GFI]

Snow over by hour 60...maximum L.E. looks like 0.70"...but this would likely be a better than 10:1 ratio situation...maybe more like 15:1. 

This would be the kind of snow that blows and drifts...

If any musters .70 in this air , you will be looking at 10 inches of snow . But I am telling you , these things pop up and pop off , These inversions pick a spot the day of , and its so hard for models to pin exact spot day 2 days out . But that said I WOULD LOVE THAT TO VERIFY .

[Mitchel Volk]

Do not count your chickens yet, the area of snow is very small so any shift can change everything.  But at this time the trend is our friend.

[Guest Pamela]

If any musters .70 in this air , you will be looking at 10 inches of snow . But I am telling you , these things pop up and pop off , These inversions pick a spot the day of , and its so hard for models to pin exact spot day 2 days out . But that said I WOULD LOVE THAT TO VERIFY .

 

I agree 100%...the 6z run could have it over Boston...and you don't even have much other model support beyond the SREF...but in our area, everything that can go wrong, has gone wrong over the last 23 months, snow wise...eventually, even bad streaks do come to an end. 

[Edge Weather]

If any musters .70 in this air , you will be looking at 10 inches of snow . But I am telling you , these things pop up and pop off , These inversions pick a spot the day of , and its so hard for models to pin exact spot day 2 days out . But that said I WOULD LOVE THAT TO VERIFY .

 

The Euro control run picked this very spot many days ago.  Remember the Canadian had it in this exact spot as well for a couple of runs a few days ago.  They had it even stronger too.  How many times have we seen this, where the models have it a week out, then lose it for 3 or 4 days, then bring it back.  Something is wrong with the models in the 3-7 day range in big way often.  I guess data is lost over the ocean or something?  Maybe when the system is over land in Siberia the model does better then when it is out over the ocean, then it gets on land here and it gets picked back up.  That is the only conclusion I can come up with to explain this often repeated pattern.  As I said, there is much upside potential here.  Just remember some of the blown up runs we saw about 4 days ago.  Not saying it will get anywhere like those, but it does not take a lot of precip when it is this cold to get a lot of snow.