MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro has been too shaky of late to trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 the pattern isn't favorable for anything more than flurries or a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 FOK is the .10" line on the euro. ISP gets .08" LGA .03". Coating to 1" LGA and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 15z SREF really increases precip for the area...looks like 0.5 line cutting across LI (hard to tell on SV maps). Looks good though. Lets see if the NAM increases precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 15z SREF really increases precip for the area...looks like 0.5 line cutting across LI (hard to tell on SV maps). Looks good though. Lets see if the NAM increases precip How does NJ into NYC fare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 .25 line now back to Morristown, appears to deepen the low quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 How does NJ into NYC fare? 0.25+ for everyone. Verbatim probably a 2-4/3-5 prog depending on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 How does NJ into NYC fare? .25 line is west of the city. That area expanded into jersey and the Hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 also nails CC and extreme SE mass. There is also a better surface low reflection and much more precip on the NW side of the low which is why a more widespread areas sees precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is great. 1-5" of snow followed by arctic blast. Snow should stay on the ground at least until Friday, may help us out with Friday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 something I noticed with the SREF is precip kinda comes in from the west in an already organized fashion, doesn't just develop overhead a la the GFS. So while it may technically fulfill a norlun type designation (not sure) it looks a lot more like a redeveloping clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is great. 1-5" of snow followed by arctic blast. Snow should stay on the ground at least until Friday, may help us out with Friday's event. word of caution, the SREFs can be great (last event) and they can definitely sniff out trends, but I'd feel a lot better with major model support for this event. We'll see what the 18z and 00z model suite has to offer though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 something I noticed with the SREF is precip kinda comes in from the west in an already organized fashion, doesn't just develop overhead a la the GFS. So while it may technically fulfill a norlun type designation (not sure) it looks a lot more like a redeveloping clipper It has a more defined coastal reflection that is why precip has gone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 FOK is the .10" line on the euro. ISP gets .08" LGA .03". Coating to 1" LGA and east. Some lucky spots could pick up a coating to an inch or two eastward with the higher ratios and Arctic thickness near the region. But it should be very hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 word of caution, the SREFs can be great (last event) and they can definitely sniff out trends, but I'd feel a lot better with major model support for this event. We'll see what the 18z and 00z model suite has to offer though Agree. The only model in good agreement with the SREFs is the NAM, and the NAM did a good job with Thursday night's event. Might see a little more QPF on the 18z GFS. I don't think that the GFS will catch on easily, especially since it's low resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Some lucky spots could pick up a coating to an inch or two eastward with the higher ratios and Arctic thickness near the region. But it should be very hit or miss. That's if the coastal isn't near the coast. If it's closer, we can get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We're still outside of the best period for the NAM and the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I still think its "up to an inch" most areas but up to 3-5 Boston and southern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We're really looking at only a few hours of snow....a burst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Nam much drier this run. Just .05+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Amazingly different from the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This was always a non event , the reason the NAM was juiced this AM is it popped a mesoscale LOW off L I , and had the Norlun further south . These are almost alway Central New England type events. The SREF is way too wet , and at 60 plus hrs , not its best range . Focus on the cold and weekend system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I still think its "up to an inch" most areas but up to 3-5 Boston and southern new england SNE will be the place to be with the track of the low and the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Upton REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DEFORMATION BANDING SETS UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Srefs are near 90% now for 1"+ snow for NYC. 20-30% for 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looking at the GFS soundings, I counted 16 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 And the GFS takes us back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Is the globals good for this type of event or the hi res models are better to use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Is the globals good for this type of event or the hi res models are better to use? The hi-res stuff will usually be good within 12 to 24 hours before the event. But as others have said, they like to overdo precip from this far out in situations like this. The NAM was even too juiced with the precip within 24 hrs of the late December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SREF at 60-66 hrs and then total precip. Some individual ensemble members are amazing. There is still huge potential here for a surprise on a mesoscale level. If I lived on Long Island I would keep a particularly close eye on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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