Clipper Threat 1/22/13-1/23/13

[Allsnow]

Nam and srefs around .25

[JonClaw]

NAM @ 66hr T-Skew (KJFK)

 

http://bit.ly/WOehuA

 

(If anybody has a better place for T-skews, please let me know)

[SnowGoose69]

_{The last several runs of the NMM have gotten progressively stronger at 500 and the surface...}

 

[NaoPos]

NAM @ 66hr T-Skew (KJFK)

http://bit.ly/WOehuA

(If anybody has a better place for T-skews, please let me know)

http://www.wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm

[TWCCraig]

I'd watch out, we don't know how this clipper will effect Friday's event. We don't want this thing to bomb out. Curious to see how the longer range 12z models handle Friday's event now with this clipper being more progressive than originally thought.  A stronger low from Tues clipper may displace the PV, and like what some other members brought up, could make Friday's event a little more liquidy.

[Allsnow]

Gfs brings light snow into area. Inv trough goes through NYC. It's very light.

[Edge Weather]

The 12z GFS shows a weak low forming about 50 miles off the NJ coast, very much like the NAM, but it loses the definition of it later, however it still shows the impact on eastern New England. It very much looks to me that the low will be much as the NAM has depicted, closer to the coast, it is just that the lower resolution of the GFS is not picking this up yet and it is still trying to form the low out over the warmer Gulf Stream.

[SR Airglow]

The 12z GFS shows a weak low forming about 50 miles off the NJ short, very much like the NAM, but it loses the definition of it later, however it still shows the impact on eastern New England. It very much looks to me that the low will be much as the NAM has depicted, closer the coast, it is just that the lower resolution of the GFS is not picking this up yet and it is still trying to form the low out over the warmer Gulf Stream.

So you think QPF distribution would be closer to the NAM?

 

-skisheep

[Edge Weather]

So you think QPF distribution would be closer to the NAM?

 

-skisheep

Yes.

[PB GFI]

Tues will be a very light event hopefully we can squeeze out .20  and you should be rooting that on .

 

for 1.  Norlun troughs that like to show up like to do so in Central New England and wouldn`t be surprised the see the NAM shift its heaviest axis further north than Cape Cod . So dont expect to see an inverted trough show up this far south ,its rare , not saying it cant happen , but I dont think it does .

 

2 .If you were to blow this surface feature up into a bomb , you will weaken the NAO which is Neut at best and allow the SE  ridge to flex its muscles for Fridays system and its center comes further north , and no one will be happy to see tha if after a week of minus 10 and  u have to carry and umbrella to work Friday .

[MJO812]

GFS is still a light snowfall.

[EasternLI]

meh....I don't think the inverted trough happens as the nam shows, those just tend to not happen. GFS seems reasonable, near miss (again).

[Edge Weather]

Tues will be a very light event hopefully we can squeeze out .20  and you should be rooting that on .

 

for 1.  Norlun troughs that like to show up like to do so in Central New England and wouldn`t be surprised the see the NAM shift its heaviest axis further north than Cape Cod . So dont expect to see an inverted trough show up this far south ,its rare , not saying it cant happen , but I dont think it does .

 

2 .If you were to blow this surface feature up into a bomb , you will weaken the NAO which is Neut at best and allow the SE  ridge to flex its muscles for Fridays system and its center comes further north , and no one will be happy to see tha if after a week of minus 10 and  u have to carry and umbrella to work Friday .

You are assuming the Norlun trough idea is correct, which is possible, but it is also possible that the Norlun trough idea is wrong and that will be your actual center of low pressure, which is much more what the NAM is showing with it's higher resolution. I am leaning toward that scenario. I can see this storm being stronger and about 50 miles off the NJ coast, as the GFS produces, but then loses it, but the NAM did focus on that, and slowly continued to strengthen it. I actually believe the NAM scenario is much more likely, but the storm will likely strengthen and consolidate even quicker than the NAM depicts. Watch for this potential in future runs. I think the physics of the models often causes them to try and develop these storms out in the Gulf Stream and the models are only starting to catch on to the fact that the storm will develop around 50 miles off the coast. I am not saying this will have a huge impact on our area, but I don't like the Norlun trough idea as much as I do a low pressure center there that consolidates and slowly strengthens as it pulls out to the North and East. Let's see what future runs and other models show, if they catch on to this idea as we get closer in time to the storm. It will be interesting.

[forkyfork]

in my years of model watching i've noticed that the nam loves to go nuts with inverted trofs past 60 hrs

[Guest Pamela]

meh....I don't think the inverted trough happens as the nam shows, those just tend to not happen. GFS seems reasonable, near miss (again).

 

The last true Norlun Trough that produced big around here was in February, 1990.

Here are some snow totals from that 2/25/1990 event:

East Hampton 14.0"

Bridgehampton: 13.0"

Cutchogue 13.0"

Greenport: 12.0"

NYC Central Park: 1.8"

JFK Airport: 1.3"

[Guest Pamela]

in my years of model watching i've noticed that the nam loves to go nuts with inverted trofs past 60 hrs

 

This is true...and when they do show up, guidance *usually* shifts them NE as the event nears...

[Edge Weather]

UKMET looks like the GFS, only very light precip for us.

[EasternLI]

The last true Norlun Trough that produced big around here was in February, 1990.

Here are some snow totals from that 2/25/1990 event:

East Hampton 14.0"

Bridgehampton: 13.0"

Cutchogue 13.0"

Greenport: 12.0"

NYC Central Park: 1.8"

JFK Airport: 1.3"

 

Yep, they're rare. That was 23 years ago

[Edge Weather]

I agree with everyone completely here. If this is indeed a Norlun trough type of situation, then I would not expect much around here, just light accumulations. I am just not yet ready to completely buy into the Norlun trough idea.

[Guest Pamela]

Yep, they're rare. That was 23 years ago

 

The other famous one that produced more than 11 inches locally was on December 13, 1988:

 

(See pages 13 - 15 after opening the link):

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010%3C0005%3AWWFTTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

[MJO812]

GEFS look decent. 1-2 inches .

[bluewave]

It looks like the models are hitting the eastern sections harder for the inverted trough.

But would like to get within a day or so for the mesoscale models to have a better idea

of where the actual axis sets up. Check out how steep the low level lapse rates

are going to be near the best snow potential.

 

[SnowGoose69]

^{The 12Z NOGAPS looks closer to the coast and wetter than the GFS}

[SR Airglow]

^{The 12Z NOGAPS looks closer to the coast and wetter than the GFS}

How much QPF for the city? BDR?

 

thanks!

-skisheep

[bluewave]

UKMET looks like the GFS, only very light precip for us.

 

The spots that get an accumulation won't need much precip since the ratios will be so high with

the Arctic thickness.

[NorEaster27]

I don't see more than a coating euro is dry

[Nikolai]

maybe we'll luck out and get another half inch of snow... the winter that keeps on giving 

[MJO812]

I don't see more than a coating euro is dry

Going by the euro ?

[psv88]

I don't see more than a coating euro is dry

Yea and how well did the Euro do for thursday night, lol.

 

We need to realize the Euro is having problems

[psv88]

I don't see more than a coating euro is dry

The GFS and the NAM were the best models this week, i would look at them, imho