wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Actually if you compare the ensembles to the 12z ( start at say 102hrs 12z/96hrs 18z ) alot of the northern members have vanished as have some of the southern ones as well. Thus the GFS is generally weaker with it. So you think it's just off hour model mayhem? Certainly would explain it, but I have reservations given how quickly it seems any winter storm setup can change in the short to medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Isn't there something to be said for using persistence, though? As in the persistence of a generally unfavorable pattern for even moderate winter storms, outside of a one or two week period in late December? That's my overarching concern, and this somewhat reminds me of the changes that happened with the mid December storm whose complexion shifted to the northern stream, and hence gave Minneapolis a good storm while surprising the rest of us about 72 hours out. lol again....this a different setup. It would be different if more than one model was showing it. And the 18z GFS ensemble mean went south from the 12z run. This reminds me more of 1/20/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 So you think it's just off hour model mayhem? Certainly would explain it, but I have reservations given how quickly it seems any winter storm setup can change in the short to medium range. don't believe in this either. Each run has a purpose and still got just as much data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm on vacation this week, and will be in Kankakee for this potential event. I did the same exact thing during my week of vacation last January. January 20 to be exact. So we got that going for ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm on vacation this week, and will be in Kankakee for this potential event. I did the same exact thing during my week of vacation last January. January 20 to be exact. So we got that going for ourselves. Things do turn around and change for the better - even in the crappiest of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 don't believe in this either. Each run has a purpose and still got just as much data. The off hour myth is just that, a myth. People need to stop using it as a crutch to sway their stances so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I really find it interesting that the FIM model which is run off the GFS has a track exactly like the EURO and is much more amplifies than the GFS. I wonder if this is a red flag? Hmmmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I really find it interesting that the FIM model which is run off the GFS has a track exactly like the EURO and is much more amplifies than the GFS. I wonder if this is a red flag? Hmmmmm...... Probably so. I do things are in favor of the non-GFS solutions, it's just, if things do shift, they are likely to look more GFS-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Probably so. I do things are in favor of the non-GFS solutions, it's just, if things do shift, they are likely to look more GFS-esque. Under what reasoning? Not saying you are right or wrong but it seems like a bold proclamation there, which hasn't been seen in any model data other than the GFS itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Under what reasoning? Not saying you are right or wrong but it seems like a bold proclamation there, which hasn't been seen in any model data other than the GFS itself. I should have said, if things shift significantly, it's likely to have to do with the northern stream, which would impede the potential amplification of the potential southern low and result in a nonevent for many. Then again, I suppose the southern stream could amplify even more, resulting in a NW shift as well. Not a certainty, but a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I really find it interesting that the FIM model which is run off the GFS has a track exactly like the EURO and is much more amplifies than the GFS. I wonder if this is a red flag? Hmmmmm...... Definitely should be. Previous runs have been very GFS-esque, and when I followed the FIM in previous events it tended to always hug pretty close to the GFS (not that that should surprise anyone, of course). There's way too much GFS worrying going on in this thread though. At this range, I'd be more worried if the GFS showed a hit than I am with what it's showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Latest GFS sucks here but the 12z Euro was the best run yet. Hate to see the weak gfs runs and some of its ensembles that show almost nothing here, but thankfully its an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 At this range, I will take my chances with the Euro. We can start worrying about the GFS on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Possible wildcard especially if the NAM is right could be a clipper moving through on 23-24 that possibly puts down 1-3" if not more depending on ratios. Could help to keep this storm more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 FWIW it looks like the NAM is closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I look at that map.... A fresh arctic 1035 high sliding down into WI MN with a weak area of low press in Oklahoma and its hard to believe that set up produces a 1000+mb low able to ride up into CLE . But it's all about timing and I'd be the last to bet against the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Latest GFS sucks here but the 12z Euro was the best run yet. Hate to see the weak gfs runs and some of its ensembles that show almost nothing here, but thankfully its an outlier at this point. the 12z ECMWF does indeed have a max of QPF at Detroit at 114 hour (06z Friday). I wonder if even the max of QPF i.e., snow, may be even more north, like Flint, Lansing or Port Huron, and London ONT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z GFS, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z GFS went south some and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is an interesting forecast...there are a couple questions, with the first being, how quickly does the massive PV get out of the way? The polar vortex will cause a significant amount of confluence to the east of the diving shortwave...and if it gets out of the way slower than expected, will cause the surface low to track farther south and likely cause it to be weaker than anticipated. The next question is how far south can the shortwave dig? If it digs less than expected the storm likely would bea very weak and strung out like the GFS shows with little phasing until late, resulting in no significant accumulating snowfall. Given the PNA will be trending neutral I would initially favor less digging...however, the PNA should still be positive immediately behind the shortwave but not strongly so...this may favor some more digging. The AO will remain strongly negative through the week suggesting strong southward displacement of the PV and a more amplified pattern overall...and with the NAO slightly negative, this may indicate that the initial PV won't be hauling ass east in any expedient fasion.So, in short, I believe the ridging popping back up west of the shortwave and highly amplified pattern remaining thanks to the strong -AO should allow the shortwave to dig plenty enough...now, if the PV is able to get out of the way a little quicker, this may allow the shortwave to take on a slight negative tilt and cut up towards like CLE...however, at this time I'm leading to a slightly slower exit of the PV, making it more likely the shortwave remains neutral tilt... I'm leaning initially on a track through the TN and then upper Ohio Valleys...likely north of the GFS track and a bit stronger/more organized as well, but perhaps not cutting north quite as much as say the 12z Ukie and maybe even a tick south of the Euro...although likely in the ballpark of the Euro and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm leaning initially on a track through the TN and then upper Ohio Valleys...likely north of the GFS track and a bit stronger/more organized as well, but perhaps not cutting north quite as much as say the 12z Ukie and maybe even a tick south of the Euro...although likely in the ballpark of the Euro and Canadian. OH, the 12z ukie had a track from about paducah to Pitt...pretty much riding the ohio river. The euro took it further north than that thru cmh. The euro, I believe...for today's 12z runs...was the furthest north of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 OH, the 12z ukie had a track from about paducah to Pitt...pretty much riding the ohio river. The euro took it further north than that thru cmh. The euro, I believe...for today's 12z runs...was the furthest north of the models. 12z UKMET had a 994mb low headed towards Detroit. An image of it was posted a couple pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 OH, the 12z ukie had a track from about paducah to Pitt...pretty much riding the ohio river. The euro took it further north than that thru cmh. The euro, I believe...for today's 12z runs...was the furthest north of the models. 12z Ukie was over IND. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38916-january-24-25th-potential-winter-weather-event/?p=2021402 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 OH, the 12z ukie had a track from about paducah to Pitt...pretty much riding the ohio river. The euro took it further north than that thru cmh. The euro, I believe...for today's 12z runs...was the furthest north of the models. Like Powerball said I thought I saw a strong low over like northern IN at 120 hours...but I may be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z Ukie was over IND. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38916-january-24-25th-potential-winter-weather-event/?p=2021402 weird....at 108 the low center is over the extreme southern tip of OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ this is the link you can run thru. the date looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 weird....at 108 the low center is over the extreme southern tip of OH Uh, that's the GGEM dude. See the cmc at the top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 weird....at 108 the low center is over the extreme southern tip of OH CMC is the GGEM, not the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 CMC is the GGEM, not the UKMET. oops.. that explains it then. Time to update links...or at least titles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 oops.. that explains it then. Time to update links...or at least titles New Ukie link for you: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=12〈=en'>http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=12〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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