January 24-25th Potential Winter Weather Event

[Harry]

This one better start digging then.

 

Who wouldn't want to hit this though?

 

december 2007 storm.gif

 

 

I'll never forget that one and the models at one point showing 18+ for here. Had some epic weenie model runs leading up to it.

 

But yeah i would hit it hard. Got about 10" here from it.

[Chicago WX]

I'll never forget that one and the models at one point showing 18+ for here. Had some epic weenie model runs leading up to it.

 

But yeah i would hit it hard. Got about 10" here from it.

 

That run I posted may have thrown down 20"+ for LAF, Hoosier may remember it better than I do. Ended up with 10.5" in the LAF. 

 

NAM had some real nice weenie runs in the winter of 2007-08...I specifically remember it doing so for Jan 31/Feb 1, 2008 as well.

[wisconsinwx]

Sounds like the trends are good for Chi and Mke. Might as well expect little to nothing and be pleasantly surprised if this overperforms.

[Geos]

Winds look to be off Lake MI for awhile out of the east and east-northeast. Lake enhancement can stretch quite a ways inland with a system tracking like that. Low to mid 20s across northern IL should mean close to 15:1 ratios.

 

Lol, Yeah 2007-2008 was NAM   run galore!

[Hoosier]

That run I posted may have thrown down 20"+ for LAF, Hoosier may remember it better than I do. Ended up with 10.5" in the LAF.

NAM had some real nice weenie runs in the winter of 2007-08...I specifically remember it doing so for Jan 31/Feb 1, 2008 as well.

Yep, BUFKIT ratio techniques were putting out AOA 20"

[Harry]

That run I posted may have thrown down 20"+ for LAF, Hoosier may remember it better than I do. Ended up with 10.5" in the LAF. 

 

NAM had some real nice weenie runs in the winter of 2007-08...I specifically remember it doing so for Jan 31/Feb 1, 2008 as well.

 

I remember that one too. Then the models tried taking it up the IL/IN line to the MI Border and then turning due east from there. It would be the last of the NW trenders that winter as well. Got about 8" from that.

[Harry]

Winds look to be off Lake MI for awhile out of the east and east-northeast. Lake enhancement can stretch quite a ways inland with a system tracking like that. Low to mid 20s across northern IL should mean close to 15:1 ratios.

 

Lol, Yeah 2007-2008 was NAM   run galore!

 

Both the GFS and the euro had similar totals for that event at one point or another.

[Thundersnow12]

pretty large differences looking at H5 from the 12z and 0z Euro, much better looking nrn wave, more compact, a bit more ridging out ahead of it.

 

On the 12z run you almost get a phase with our nrn wave and the wave up in Canada by 12z Friday where on the 0z run that didn't really happen and the nrn wave gets sheared out by that timeframe

 

stronger 850mb low on the 12z run which leads to a more favorable LLJ orientation into the cylcone.

 

22 deg C 850mb gradient across northern IL at 108hr. -16 along the IL/WI border to +6 in southern IL

[PatrickSumner]

EURO wasn't a bad run for those of us here in Northeast Indiana. 

[snowlover2]

IND still not buying the 850 0 line getting that far north.

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

MODELS TRACK AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE
THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A
MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MAIN
FOCUS IS DEPICTING AREAS OF RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THE EURO
AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE 850 MB ZERO LINE UP INTO OUR FAR
NORTH THURSDAY.  THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS THEY MAY BE ERODING THE
ARCTIC AIR TOO MUCH NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK.  FOR NOW WILL ACCEPT A
POSITION A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL MEAN WHICH WOULD KEEP NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS ALL SNOW AND THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FAR SOUTH.

AS THE LOW MOVES BY...COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
CAUSING ANY PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME
FLURRIES SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW.

UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MOST PERIODS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH.

 

 

[snowlover2]

ILN AFD

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

343 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013 .

 

 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

 

HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISSUES AS TO HOW STRONG A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT MODELS SOMETIMES OVERDEVELOP SFC LOWS INTO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS...HAVE CHOSEN THE MOST SUBDUED OPERATIONAL MODEL ATTM...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE GFS. LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE AND P TYPE IMPLICATIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING. TRYING TO PINPOINT MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES MAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITHIN A NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A SHEARED OUT DISTURBANCE MAY INDUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW ACRS THE SRN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM TUESDAYS COLD HIGHS AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS WRN U.S. RIDGE AND DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS MENTIONED...THE SFC LOW STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY TO TEMPERATURES AND PCPN TYPE. CURRENTLY HAVE THE LOW MOVING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION ON NW FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SET UP RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

 

[Harry]

Since we are posting AFDs here is GRR.

 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMALTHROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OFLAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITHTHE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCESMOVES THROUGH. IT IS NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS GREATERPOTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY.IN ADDITION A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST NORTHEASTFROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRING SOME SNOW INTO SOUTHERNLWR MI LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING ALITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLEFASTER/WEAKER WITH IT.AT THIS TIME WE PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE EVOLVING UPPERLEVEL PATTERN OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROF LATEIN THE WEEK AND IT/S CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDERAIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORETEMPS POTENTIALLY FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE NEXTWEEKEND.

[snowstormcanuck]

12z EURO ensemble mean looks a bit south of the OP.

[harrisale]

12z EURO ensemble mean looks a bit south of the OP.

 

12z OP would be a great hit for YYZ and Southern Ontario in general. Throws down 0.64" QPF and look at those great 850 temps.

 

Getting excited a little too early, I know..

 

FRI 06Z 25-JAN -8.8 -17.9 1019 67 100    0.06   537 522
FRI 12Z 25-JAN -9.7 -16.1 1005 83 99     0.38   528 523
FRI 18Z 25-JAN -12.3 -16.4 1007 75 100   0.19   517 512
SAT 00Z 26-JAN -13.9 -19.8 1014 75 84    0.01   518 507 

[IWXwx]

12z OP would be a great hit for YYZ and Southern Ontario in general. Throws down 0.64" QPF and look at those great 850 temps.

 

Getting excited to early, I know..

 

FRI 06Z 25-JAN -8.8 -17.9 1019 67 100    0.06   537 522
FRI 12Z 25-JAN -9.7 -16.1 1005 83 99     0.38   528 523
FRI 18Z 25-JAN -12.3 -16.4 1007 75 100   0.19   517 512
SAT 00Z 26-JAN -13.9 -19.8 1014 75 84    0.01   518 507 

Having the EURO on your side is usually a good thing at this timeframe.

[toronto blizzard]

12z EURO ensemble mean looks a bit south of the OP.

If you look closely you can see the ''bagginess'' of the isobars in what may be another low pressure center around ERIE which is where the 12z OP had it.

 

 

Also if you don't mind harry how do the 51 euro ensemble members look for the Friday storm?

[Thundersnow12]

GFS not budging, continuing to show a stronger sfc low coming southeast out of the northern plains while the southern sfc low cant strengthen and just moves east into eastern KY.

[Stebo]

GFS not budging, continuing to show a stronger sfc low coming southeast out of the northern plains while the southern sfc low cant strengthen and just moves east into eastern KY.

 

The clown model keeps putting out different solutions every 6 hours. It looks completely confused as to which vort max will phase.

[A-L-E-K]

The clown model keeps putting out different solutions every 6 hours. It looks completely confused as to which vort max will phase.

 

 

there is some potential here but the recent history of dominant northern energy lends little confidence.

[Thundersnow12]

there is some potential here but the recent history of dominant northern energy lends little confidence.

 

Yeah but the GFS is really the only model with the strong sfc low (1009mb) in ND at 90hr where the other models have nothing and the srn sfc low becoming the dominant one.

[Stebo]

there is some potential here but the recent history of dominant northern energy lends little confidence.

 

It is being too progressive in the Northern stream, the GFS is at least 12 hours faster than any other model right now.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm hoping for at least 2" from this storm, preferably 4-6". Realistic?

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm hoping for at least 2" from this storm, preferably 4-6". Realistic?

 

Nothing's a lock at this point, but 2" at a minimum seems very likely.

[buckeye]

The clown model keeps putting out different solutions every 6 hours. It looks completely confused as to which vort max will phase.

Did you see the differences between the 00z euro and the 12z euro? I agree the euro always blows away the gfs....but with this particular event the euro hasn't exactly been without its big red nose and shoes either.

[Stebo]

Did you see the differences between the 00z euro and the 12z euro? I agree the euro always blows away the gfs....but with this particular event the euro hasn't exactly been without its big red nose and shoes either.

 

The only difference is that it came in stronger, the orientation and interaction of vorts were the same between the 2 runs.

[Geos]

There's nothing really backing up the GFS, so I think in the next couple runs it will start to sway in the right direction where the other models are at with a slower and stronger southern s/w.

 

We've seen the GFS cave before!

[wisconsinwx]

Yeah but the GFS is really the only model with the strong sfc low (1009mb) in ND at 90hr where the other models have nothing and the srn sfc low becoming the dominant one.

 

That may be true, but the 18z GFS Ensembles seem to be shifting to an emphasis on the northern stream being dominant, hence the northern clipper system being the main story.  In fact, I'm starting to think the best chance from Milwaukee to Grand Rapids and north is for this northern stream clipper to trend south a tad, rather than a surface low pushing NE or ENE from the Southern Plains.  I'm worried Milwaukee and Chicago end up stuck between the two impulses, which some of the models show (at least the GFS Ensembles).  Hard not to be pessimistic when it's been so long since we have seen a decent storm in this particular locale.

[Harry]

That may be true, but the 18z GFS Ensembles seem to be shifting to an emphasis on the northern stream being dominant, hence the northern clipper system being the main story.  In fact, I'm starting to think the best chance from Milwaukee to Grand Rapids and north is for this northern stream clipper to trend south a tad, rather than a surface low pushing NE or ENE from the Southern Plains.  I'm worried Milwaukee and Chicago end up stuck between the two impulses, which some of the models show (at least the GFS Ensembles).  Hard not to be pessimistic when it's been so long since we have seen a decent storm in this particular locale.

 

Actually if you compare the ensembles to the 12z ( start at say 102hrs 12z/96hrs 18z ) alot of the northern members have vanished as have some of the southern ones as well. Thus the GFS is generally weaker with it.

[Thundersnow12]

Actually if you compare the ensembles to the 12z ( start at say 102hrs 12z/96hrs 18z ) alot of the northern members have vanished as have some of the southern ones as well. Thus the GFS is generally weaker with it.

 

Thank you for pointing that out.

 

Never will get why people let a pattern or a bad winter or two make them pessimistic.

 

Each system/setup is different and anything can happen.

[wisconsinwx]

Thank you for pointing that out.

 

Never will get why people let a pattern or a bad winter or two make them pessimistic.

 

Each system/setup is different and anything can happen.

 

Isn't there something to be said for using persistence, though?  As in the persistence of a generally unfavorable pattern for even moderate winter storms, outside of a one or two week period in late December?  That's my overarching concern, and this somewhat reminds me of the changes that happened with the mid December storm whose complexion shifted to the northern stream, and hence gave Minneapolis a good storm while surprising the rest of us about 72 hours out.