RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Step in the right direction, although this run was a bit cheap on the QPF. It's funny because there's actually a hole in the QPF over Chicago, but that hole makes no sense with the surface low track, unless the northern wave behaves exactly as projected on the GFS, which serves to rob the north periphery of the southern system of moisture until phasing finally occurs over the Ohio Valley. Would be a cruel turn of events for Chicagoland, but not something to be too worried about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Not really. This GEM run is very GFS-esque. 2-4", something but nothing special. Now the UKMET on the other hand... Actually really dry verbatim. .1-.4" QPF I meant more the track of the Low rather then the amount of moisture. If this solution were to happen I would question that low of an amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Not overly impressed with prospects for northern IL/eastern IA but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Harry's wet dream Depends on strength, WAA etc. That could be a bit too far north for here ala dryslot and thus see GHD etc. I like Indy to just south of FT Wayne to Toledo/Sandusky zone to get the best snows here UNLESS it is a bomb ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GGEM is best case for LAF. 0.30-0.50" all snow. Oh Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 OT: maybe I'm late to the party, but the meteocentre model page has a nice model comparison deal on their website (GFS, EC, GGEM, UK for long range and GGEM, RGEM, UK, GFS, NAM for short range). You can see how last night's 0z GFS was a lone wolf at 120 hours. Link here: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=compar&map=na&run=00〈=en Thanks for that link. I've somehow missed that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GFS is going to be farther north/more amped up versus its 0z run...comparing them through 81/93 hours. It's got a modest overrunning band with the northern clipper system, but the southern low not putting out much until it gets further east. I don't know what it is this year with the late phasing systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I meant more the track of the Low rather then the amount of moisture. If this solution were to happen I would question that low of an amount. Yeah I agree its a great track, and it does look suspiciously dry...however there has been a dry trend in all the models so I wouldn't discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This latest Gfs is a terrible, all rain track for me. Oh well, it could still change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Prelim thinking for YYZ: dusting-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GGEM is best case for LAF. 0.30-0.50" all snow. Oh Canada... Lots of solutions on the table. The only thing I'm pretty confident about for us is that the cold air won't be rooted out to the point that it's an all-rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Well, it's the lolgaps, but it looks pretty wound up which is unusual: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 EURO looking alot better for Chicago, S.MI/s.wi, and N.IN on up towards Toronto.. Alot more juice on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 EURO looking alot better for Chicago, S.MI/s.wi, and N.IN on up towards Toronto.. Alot more juice on this run. Maybe I should bump to 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z Euro goes from OK panhandle to Cleveland. How it gets there I don't know.(Exact track wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's some tight thermal packing. 0C 850 line gets to KERI, -16c here. Probably some excellent lake enhancement verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z Euro goes from OK panhandle to Cleveland. How it gets there I don't know.(Exact track wise) Tracks across S.IN to near/just nw of Columbus and on to Cleveland and eventually ending up in W.NY at which point a coastal gets going and takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 That's some tight thermal packing. 0C 850 line gets to KERI, -16c here. Probably some excellent lake enhancement verbatim. The gradient is pretty insane. 850s of around -12 here and 0 just south of FT Wayne when it passes south of here. The zero line gets near LAF but does not get north of there while the +4 gets as far north as Indy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .42" at DPA .48" at ORD 850's even colder this run up around -14 deg C. precip gets going back further west this run in eastern IA and wetter as Harry mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The gradient is pretty insane. 850s of around -12 here and 0 just south of FT Wayne when it passes south of here. The zero line gets near LAF but does not get north of there while the +4 gets as far north as Indy.. amazing , at 12z thurs we are around -14 850's.... at 12z friday we are -8 850s. In between we get rain...lol. Haven't had a storm track over CMH in quite awhile so to those who benefit, you're probably long overdue. oh well,if the 850 gradient is that tight, it might bode well for a quick changeover....?.... or dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .42" at DPA .48" at ORD 850's even colder this run up around -14 deg C. precip gets going back further west this run in eastern IA and wetter as Harry mentioned. Yep.. As for general QPF.. .25+ from E.IA across IL/S.WI ( Whole MKE area ) and .50+ across c/s MI down into Indiana on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like there could some taint for LAF on the Euro. Make due with what you got I guess. Needless to say, yesterday's south/drier trend is over. We'll see where we're at with tonight's runs. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 looking at the gfs ensembles. Very close to euro track....vast majority are the same or slightly nw of it. Only looks like one member is southeast. This one might be a candidate for more nw adjustments in future runs, especially if it starts modelling stronger. looks like Chicago is gonna finally get a piece of the pie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like there could some taint for LAF on the Euro. Make due with what you got I guess. Needless to say, yesterday's south/drier trend is over. We'll see where we're at with tonight's runs. Fun stuff. I was reading the SNE storm thread and one of the mets there mentioned that Dec 15th 2007 storm as a comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I was reading the SNE storm thread and one of the mets there mentioned that Dec 15th 2007 storm as a comparison. This one better start digging then. Who wouldn't want to hit this though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I was reading the SNE storm thread and one of the mets there mentioned that Dec 15th 2007 storm as a comparison. 1/20/12 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I was reading the SNE storm thread and one of the mets there mentioned that Dec 15th 2007 storm as a comparison. I got 6.5" with that storm. Had a heavy snow warning for that storm back when NWS still used that type of watch. That storm did a NW trend then - looking at the NAM map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This one better start digging then. Who wouldn't want to hit this though? december 2007 storm.gif Yeah, not very fond of that comparison for that reason. Maybe it's more similar out their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 looking at the gfs ensembles. Very close to euro track....vast majority are the same or slightly nw of it. Only looks like one member is southeast. This one might be a candidate for more nw adjustments in future runs, especially if it starts modelling stronger. looks like Chicago is gonna finally get a piece of the pie Yeah they ( that do go further north ) have a stronger northern wave ( southern one never gets going ) that tracks across the N.Plains to WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 EURO 500mb @ 108hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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