Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The 30km FIM is more toward the GFS solution However the 15k Fim is slightly more favorable to the Euro solution. I would go with the higher resolution models and favor a more northern solution, but not as for north as the GGEM. Yeah the GGEM is probably too far North as it moves the block NE too quickly. I do think that is probably your upper limit on how far North this system could end up. Oh and that FIM run is from yesterday morning, the previous run before that took the low to Toledo at around 998mb just as a point of reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Trends are looking grim for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Trends are looking grim for ORD. 8.6" incoming? Smash all the futility records at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah the GGEM is probably too far North as it moves the block NE too quickly. I do think that is probably your upper limit on how far North this system could end up. Oh and that FIM run is from yesterday morning, the previous run before that took the low to Toledo at around 998mb just as a point of reference. Thanks for pointing that out, to bad it didn't load in last night, oh well it is experimental after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Thanks for pointing that out, to bad it didn't load in last night, oh well it is experimental after all. Yeah, it has been hit or miss all season and since it has been released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 8.6" incoming? Smash all the futility records at once. grim as in the futility record is looking strong. South/dry trends are undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Getting excited for the potential. Clearly the best potential since December 26th storm. In fact the fact that we had snowpack til January 11th and we have LES to deal with the next few days sort of mask the fact that this could be DTWs first shovelable synoptic snow since December 29th...almost 4 weeks! Always love to see different nws's suggesting different solutions when its still kind of far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah, it has been hit or miss all season and since it has been released. I remember one of the guys at GRR once mentioning ( a few years back when it was just the FIM) that it was supposed to be as superior as the euro because of how it was designed. For a while ( a few years back ) GRR had included it in their AFD discussions and for a while back then it did seem to do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 grim as in the futility record is looking strong. South/dry trends are undeniable. Plenty of time for a north trend. This thing can only be suppressed so far. Remember several days ago people were freaking out that this was a mild rain on the heals of the arctic air. It already HAS trended way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MSP has mentioned the FIM several times this year, as a matter of fact, I think it was the lead model when it came to our 12" snowfall Dec 8th-9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Plenty of time for a north trend. This thing can only be suppressed so far. Remember several days ago people were freaking out that this was a mild rain on the heals of the arctic air. It already HAS trended way south. people were talking about that because it was so impressive and rare...the current southern solution makes much more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 people were talking about that because it was so impressive and rare...the current southern solution makes much more sense. Actually probably not as rare as you would think....flat out sucky though. In looking at old weather records Ive seen several cases where temps have skyrocketed with rain after brutal cold and dry. Regardless...still liking chances for here. If the clipper coming down can merge with the southern L it could be a very widespread snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wow, I missed a lot of discussion of this system since last night. Nice discussion regarding the various solutions. From a forecast standpoint, I'd still forecast a blend as LMK suggested last night until things come more into focus. Too early to bite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 people were talking about that because it was so impressive and rare...the current southern solution makes much more sense. Boy this snow drought is really getting to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 people were talking about that because it was so impressive and rare...the current southern solution makes much more sense. Even still if it does go south the issue of the lake remains as the flow looks to back towards the nne and even ne which should bring some snows to that side of the lake. Gonna be hard for Chicago to totally escape. Guess we'll see. If it was the more typical clipper during the height of the Arctic outbreak i would be more then ready to jump on the southern solutions. However this cold is impressive as well. So i'll just wait and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 people were talking about that because it was so impressive and rare...the current southern solution makes much more sense. I know it's taboo around here, but try being a smidge positive for once...or not totally dismissive. Honestly, I'm not sure it's wise to jump into either camp right now...still 4-5 days out. Seems back north was the "trend" in the modeling, post GFS last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I know it's taboo around here, but try being a smidge positive for once...or not totally dismissive. Honestly, I'm not sure it's wise to jump into either camp right now...still 4-5 days out. Seems back north was the "trend" in the modeling, post GFS last night. SO happy to see you back!!! Last nights whiff on the 00z GFS reminded me of the old "lose the storm at 5 days" mantra. Liking potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I know it's taboo around here, but try being a smidge positive for once...or not totally dismissive. Honestly, I'm not sure it's wise to jump into either camp right now...still 4-5 days out. Seems back north was the "trend" in the modeling, post GFS last night. I was positive about this event a couple pages back...but the writing is on the wall. I still have some LE chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 SO happy to see you back!!! Last nights whiff on the 00z GFS reminded me of the old "lose the storm at 5 days" mantra. Liking potential here. I guess it was time. Strange the magnetism this place has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I was positive about this event a couple pages back...but the writing is on the wall. I still have some LE chances. I'm not trying to call you out, to be clear, just saying system snowfall isn't off the table for Chicago yet. As usual, we'll see. Lots of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm not trying to call you out, to be clear, just saying system snowfall isn't off the table for Chicago yet. As usual, we'll see. Lots of time... No, definitely not off the table but certainly not looking good (especially if we're talking about more than a DAB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 grim as in the futility record is looking strong. South/dry trends are undeniable. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A fair amount of spread/uncertainty on the 6z GEFS individual runs. I think we can make a number of judgments right now, and still not be any closer to the final verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A fair amount of spread/uncertainty on the 6z GEFS individual runs. I think we can make a number of judgments right now, and still not be any closer to the final verdict. Yes just to be fair, the only model that really has wildly wavered on this is the GFS, the Euro has been consistent for days other than yesterday's token 12z scare everyone run. As much as we laugh about the GGEM it has been pretty consistent as well and the Ukie since coming into range of this has favored a Northern and stronger solution on 3 successive runs, Not sure where this Southern shift talk is really coming from to be honest other than from the GFS which has been all over the road. Also the current MJO phase would not favor a suppressed solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Boy this snow drought is really getting to you Why do you feel the need to constantly needle him? From someone living in a city that's experienced 2 futility winters in 3 shots, I'd like to think you'd be more empathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why do you feel the need to constantly needle him? From someone living in a city that's experienced 2 futility winters in 3 shots, I'd like to think you'd be more empathetic. No I'm just saying that he needs to lighten up a little. It's depressing hearing him say stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yes just to be fair, the only model that really has wildly wavered on this is the GFS, the Euro has been consistent for days other than yesterday's token 12z scare everyone run. As much as we laugh about the GGEM it has been pretty consistent as well and the Ukie since coming into range of this has favored a Northern and stronger solution on 3 successive runs, Not sure where this Southern shift talk is really coming from to be honest other than from the GFS which has been all over the road. Also the current MJO phase would not favor a suppressed solution either. Pretty wild but if you look at the MJO forecast for each model it nearly follows the storm track of that respective model. euro and especially the GGEM back it into phase 6 briefly ( supporting a more northerly track ) vs the GFS whichs keeps it in 7 and strengthens it again and moves it towards 8 after a few days which would favor a more southerly storm track. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Should be a riot when this gets into the NAM's range. MSP to APN hit initially? It's already farther north with Wednesday's little impulse versus the other guidance. Wouldn't go to sleep on that one BTW...just IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 No I'm just saying that he needs to lighten up a little. It's depressing hearing him say stuff like that. "people were talking about that because it was so impressive and rare...the current southern solution makes much more sense." - Alek. This gets you depressed? He's making a call. What's the big deal? And I don't see how you could reasonably expect a snow lover to "lighten up" when he's sitting on 1.3" for the season as we're heading into late January. Had we not had that December 27th storm, our posts would be even more hopeless sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 No I'm just saying that he needs to lighten up a little. It's depressing hearing him say stuff like that. Lighten up? Yet in the second sentence you say it is depressing? Dude just relax and take SSC advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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