Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah, I mentioned the 35th anniversary yesterday. What would have to happen to get the two systems to phase? Is that even possible at this point? Set up isn't right. Northern stream is racing out way ahead on the models now. This is Jan 1978 on the morning of the 25th. Notice on the 500 maps, they're running parallel at that point. Couple more frames...then boom, the rest is history (second image). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's going to be mighty hard for this one to cut NE into that PV over SE Canada. I'd prefer if this system slows down and digs further southward, that way we can get some ridging to develop ahead of it (I.E. GGEM). Otherwise, you get the EURO's solution. EDIT: The system beyond this (28th - 31st time frame) looks interesting too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Set up isn't right. Northern stream is racing out way ahead on the models now. This is Jan 1978 on the morning of the 25th. Notice on the 500 maps, they're running parallel at that point. Couple more frames...then boom, the rest is history (second imag reanal_1978012512.gif reanal_1978012612.gif Thanks! Yeah after I thought about it I realized the setup was different .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What a meteorological wonder Jan 1978 was though, looking at those maps. Almost perfect really. Ok, back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's going to be mighty hard for this one to cut NE into that PV over SE Canada. I'd prefer if this system slows down and digs further southward, that way we can get some ridging to develop ahead of it (I.E. GGEM). Otherwise, you get the EURO's solution. EDIT: The system beyond this (28th - 31st time frame) looks interesting too though. I'd go for a slow down! At least the PV isn't right above the GL's. PV position at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z GFS like the Euro now lol Of course it did, I opened my mouth about the Euro being bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 different scenario...this is hardly a major negatively tilted storm. Here's some negatively tilted poo the 0z GFS decided to leave on the doorstep... lulz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Of course it did, I opened my mouth about the Euro being bs. 0z GGEM is still on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z GGEM is still on your side. The GFS was much flatter/weaker with the wave when it was in Western Canada so it didn't have a chance to dig more. I guess we'll see as it gets closer, I expect things to change several times as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The GFS was much flatter/weaker with the wave when it was in Western Canada so it didn't have a chance to dig more. I guess we'll see as it gets closer, I expect things to change several times as we go forward. 0z Ukie has a 998 low in southern IL at 120 hours. Soooo, don't stop believin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z Ukie has a 998 low in southern IL at 120 hours. Soooo, don't stop believin'. Lol at least everyone didn't jump off the ship yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 And the 0z Euro comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 And the 0z Euro comes north. Strong baroclinicity shown there at that time too, would represent some good 850mb frontogenesis centered around and just South of the MI/IN/OH borders. Nice to see the Euro back off of its over the top weak solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .30" at ORD with good ratios. 850's around -11 deg C and sfc temps in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 .30" at ORD with good ratios. 850's around -11 deg C and sfc temps in the low 20's. Yeah this would be a favorable ratio snow, probably on the order of 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Strong baroclinicity shown there at that time too, would represent some good 850mb frontogenesis centered around and just South of the MI/IN/OH borders. Nice to see the Euro back off of its over the top weak solution. The mslp placement looks like a good track for here too. I'm staying optimistic on this one breaking the streak. And then tsnow with the confirmation on the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Would be nice if this thing could get going further west in IA, could get a really nice E-W band of snow along the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Would be nice if this thing could get going further west in IA, could get a really nice E-W band of snow along the gradient. That's what allowed 1/20/12 to overperform the way it did for a part of the cwa. Great fgen band got going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Would be nice if this thing could get going further west in IA, could get a really nice E-W band of snow along the gradient. Yes, the sooner it can get it's act together the better off we will be, as the moisture advection from the Gulf would be much better. I am sure the Ukie probably had some really good amounts with it considering track/strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Canadian drops roughly 11 mm (0.44") of snow at Chicago Indy gets around 2 mm (0.08") of snow but around 5 mm (0.20") of ZR. So as of now the GGEM, UKMET, and Euro are all on the more amplified side of things. I stress, "as of now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z Euro Ens appears way south of the OP. EDIT: After realizing i needed to refresh an image, its actually really close to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Um, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z Euro Ens appears way south of the OP. Not really. They are pretty much in line with each other. Euro Operational at 120 hr Euro Ensemble mean at 120 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Guess you missed the edit to my post. IND seems to disagree with the 0z Euro. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 413 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013 FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON IMPACTS TO THE REGION ON A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS WITH MODEL RUNS ON SATURDAY MORNING...ECMWF/GGEM ARE FASTER WITH PRECIP ONSET THURSDAY AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL. OP GFS AND MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE WAVE WITH THE OP GFS EVEN GOING SO FAR AS TO FOCUS HEAVY PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW FACTORS PRESENT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TRENDING TOWARDS THE SUPPRESSED TRACK TO THE SURFACE WAVE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FROM THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE WOULD BE ABLE TO ADVECT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS REMNANT COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL GIVE WAY ONLY SLOWLY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A CLOSER ANALYSIS OF THE ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS INDICATING QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE AND FRANKLY SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC DEWPOINT GRADIENT ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 DEGREES SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES. HAVE HELD ONTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL VARIABILITY BUT IN GENERAL APPEARS SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT AND IN SOME AREAS ONLY PRECIP TYPE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA...DOES APPEAR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AS ANOTHER PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN AND AS A FEW WAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY COLD WEATHER TO CONCLUDE THE WEEKEND. CONTINUING THE TREND OF GENERALLY UNDERCUTTING ALLBLEND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BASED ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TO RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Detroit disagrees with Indy LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS...WHILE DIFFERING IN DETAILS...STILLSUPPORT A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE AREA ALONGTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND PROVIDING THE AREA WITHA DECENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BEJUST HOW MUCH PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ARCTICUPPER TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND HENCE...HOW FARNORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILETHIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED IN ANY DETAIL TONIGHT...ENHANCEDLOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES AFTER 5 OR 6 DAYS OF RESIDENTARCTIC AIR WILL TEND TO COAX THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF ANY SUCHSYSTEM TO THE NORTH. SO...ASSUMING THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM ENDS UPCLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY THIS REGIONAL ANOMALYTHE CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT SEEM A BIT BETTER THAN USUAL. IWX is more in between A SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHTAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGINS DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST ANDINTERACTS WITH A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE. A00Z MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THEOH VALLEY...FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE IWX CWA.HOWEVER...THE OUTLIER GFS/GEFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND LESSAMPLIFIED (FARTHER SOUTH/DRY) SOLUTION WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING ONTIMING AND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THERE ISOBVIOUSLY A LOT THAT NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED HERE WITH THIS SHORTWAVESTILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND THE EVENT 5 DAYS AWAY. IT IS WORTHNOTING THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A DECENT SWATHOF SNOW (ADVISORY LEVEL?) SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN PROGGEDMODEST MOISTURE RETURN, GOOD RATIOS, AND A STRONG FGEN RESPONSE. AMORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED SYSTEM WOULD ALSO BRING PTYPE INTO QUESTIONACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. STAY TUNED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 ILN appears to favor the southern solution. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 454 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. ONE LAST DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME BROAD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TRACK WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE COLD AIR WILL COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 CLE is favoring the Euro which is further North WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELYSTILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IN NW PA AT THE START OFTHE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ONTHURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SYNOPTIC STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGIONAT THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ECMWF FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROWSHOWS A NICE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW TRACK SUGGESTSTHAT HEAVY SNOW COULD FALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS HAS FINALLYPICKED UP ON THIS SYSTEM BUT TRACKS IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. GIVENTHE ECWMF`S CONSISTENCY WILL FOLLOW IT TODAY. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOWIT APPEARS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWTHURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THEAREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAYNIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE ENDOF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 6z GFS goes north some from the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 6z GFS goes north some from the 0z. GFS pulling a... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The 30km FIM is more toward the GFS solution However the 15k Fim is slightly more favorable to the Euro solution. I would go with the higher resolution models and favor a more northern solution, but not as for north as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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