Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 meh i've been under warnings with 9-13" point forecasts and ended up with a dusting...this has always been a 1-3" max event, so a dusting is hardly a major upset. Major upset, lol. Geez, all I was saying is getting completely shutout is easier with these types of "events". Shutout, like nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Shouldnt we be seeing precip blossoming over the s.plains....tn valley by now? Considering no models showed precip there til after midnight...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 meh i've been under warnings with 9-13" point forecasts and ended up with a dusting...this has always been a 1-3" max event, so a dusting is hardly a major upset. I agree, this isnt a system to get all that excited about. Sunday is actually a tad more interesting than this. I wonder if this will be a filtered sun lit event. Snowing dust with a faint sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Not expecting much at all here. Maybe a couple of inches of powder. That would be extremely exciting for many areas in the sub actually. Currently the only precip reaching the surface according to obs is in northern WI and northern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm hoping I do okay in northern Scarborough. Not sure though. It might be a bluffs special. 0z NAM is a complete whiff with the LES. Sets up across southern Durham and never makes it into Toronto. This winter is sure pure unadulterated death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I agree, this isnt a system to get all that excited about. Sunday is actually a tad more interesting than this. I wonder if this will be a filtered sun lit event. Snowing dust with a faint sun. That was one of the cool things about last nights stuff. Could still see the moon for a time when the snow began even when it neared moderate intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Major upset, lol. Geez, all I was saying is getting completely shutout is easier with these types of "events". Shutout, like nothing happens. lol, sorry. I guess the "major upset" and waking up to bare ground rhetoric made me thing you were being more serious. This winter can't end soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fwiw... GRR update... ISSUED AT 857 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 WE ARE UPDATING THE FCST PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF SNOW FROM EARLY FRI MORNING THROUGH FRI EVENING. WE HAVE BEEN EVALUATING THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FOR MASON...OCEANA... MUSKEGON...LAKE...AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN 4 INCHES MAINLY WITH THE BURST OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. IT IS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THAT WILL SEE AMOUNTS AROUND OR MORE THAN 4 INCHES DUE TO THE LAKE BAND THAT WILL BE COMING ASHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM MUSKEGON NORTH LOOK LIKE A VERY GOOD BET TO SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. I like! I hope it happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That was one of the cool things about last nights stuff. Could still see the moon for a time when the snow began even when it neared moderate intensity. I will pass . Seriously though once snow starts to fall we should be fine, I think the issues will be hours of virga before anything reaches the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0.0". Not even a flake. 00z NAM is bone dry again. We'll see. We might be able to saturate and get a period of light snow but anything more than a coating will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 903 PM CST THU JAN 24 2013 UPDATE CONCERN THIS EVE FOCUSED ON LACK OF MOISTURE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON POPS/QPF. THE CONCERN IS A LARGE DRY WEDGE AROUND 850 MB SEEN ON 00Z DVN RAOB. THE 00Z NAM SOUNDING INITIALIZED THIS DRY WEDGE WELL... AND IT/S SOLUTION HAS REVERTED BACK TO A BONE DRY FCST IT WAS SHOWING DAYS PRIOR WITH BASICALLY NO QPF OVER CWA NEXT 12 HRS. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR MANY PARTS OF CWA DONT LOOK VERY PROMISING THROUGH 12Z-15Z FRI... AS MODEL TOP DOWN SATURATES TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO BUT HANGS ONTO A DRY POCKET NEAR 850 MB WITH T/TD SPREADS ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGS IN/NEAR THAT LAYER. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE IT SATURATES UP TO 850 MB BUT DRY ALOFT... WITH THE OTHER EXCEPTION FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE T/TD SPREADS AT 850 MB AROUND 3 DEGS. GIVEN THE VERY GOOD INITIALIZATION OF NAM... AND MOST MODELS GENERALLY VERIFYING OVERDONE WITH QPF IN WARM ADVECTION WING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING ...ALSO FACT THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY TOWARD MORNING TYPICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR MOISTURE... AND AREA SPLIT BETWEEN MAIN FORCING SIGNALS WITH ONE PASSING THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND OTHER TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY ALL SUPPORTIVE THAT DRY NAM MODEL LIKELY ONTO SOMETHING AND REASONABLE. PLAN TO UPDATE FCST TO LOWER POPS AND ELIMINATE OR SIGNFICANTLY LOWER ACCUMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I will pass . Seriously though once snow starts to fall we should be fine, I think the issues will be hours of virga before anything reaches the surface. That seems to happen a bit more often when LES involved be it the sun shining or moon with snow falling. Saw both this week. I think it's kinda cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z NAM is bone dry again. We'll see. We might be able to saturate and get a period of light snow but anything more than a coating will be a bonus. It's time to punt for anything more than a T in the LAF. Stuck in the middle between these two waves is not the place to be. Kudos to the NAM I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Likewise further east into Southern lower MI. I'm certain we will wake up with the forecast changed from 2-4" to around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That seems to happen a bit more often when LES involved be it the sun shining or moon with snow falling. Saw both this week. I think it's kinda cool to see. I agree! Went outside and saw the moon and a haze of light snow around it. Very cool when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z NAM is bone dry again. We'll see. We might be able to saturate and get a period of light snow but anything more than a coating will be a bonus. Breaking...1z RAP will save the day for Chad. And, congrats CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z NAM is a complete whiff with the LES. Sets up across southern Durham and never makes it into Toronto. This winter is sure pure unadulterated death. Worse than last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here come the people throwing in the towels in Southern Michigan over a drier 0z nam when it's been lost the entire event. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Likewise further east into Southern lower MI. I'm certain we will wake up with the forecast changed from 2-4" to around an inch. Who is saying 2-4? I see 1-3 in the zone and thats it? I think 1-3 is a safe call. I admit i was thinking 1-2 but with that lake i think 3 is still possible but nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Worse than last winter I've never seen such a set of bad winters. 2009-10, 2011-12 and now this year -_- did not expect this. This Winter sucks. Not a single noteworthy system and these dry cold outbreaks are useless. We finally see some development next week but that too will have alot of warm air -_- I'm disappointed. If nothing lives up through the end of January we will have more snow by Feb 1st last year than this year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here come the people throwing in the towels in Southern Michigan over a drier 0z nam when it's been lost the entire event. Classic. I think 1-2" is still a good call no matter those giving up on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here come the people throwing in the towels in Southern Michigan over a drier 0z nam when it's been lost the entire event. Classic. 00z GFS was a bit drier as well by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think 1-2" is still a good call no matter those giving up on anything. Yeah the last two mornings I've had an inch of snow here in Toledo the last few days, I wouldn't be shocked to maybe see 2" out of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Meh, I'll take my coating of fine flakes and like it (not really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm probably gonna say a general 2-3 inches of snow across SEMI. There could be a potential for a bit more with some lake enhanced stuff across the usual spots (94 corridor) that might lead to isolated higher amounts. Lollis of 3.5-4 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I've never seen such a set of bad winters. 2009-10, 2011-12 and now this year -_- did not expect this. This Winter sucks. Not a single noteworthy system and these dry cold outbreaks are useless. We finally see some development next week but that too will have alot of warm air -_- I'm disappointed. If nothing lives up through the end of January we will have more snow by Feb 1st last year than this year, lol. Didnt you get 6" on Dec 26th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here come the people throwing in the towels in Southern Michigan over a drier 0z nam when it's been lost the entire event. Classic. I dont think there has EVER been an event in S MI for this boards existence where the towels werent thrown as the event nears nowtime. Seriously though.....Id say count on a 2" snowfall. Worst case 1" best case 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Might as well move on to the next storm. Yeah, boo to talking about weather on a weather board. Boooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Snow starting to reach the ground in the Fox Valley of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS still has 0.15-0.20" for SE MI. the battle of the models is on as usual lol. Im off to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.