Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I hate to be too debbie downerish but I'm really wondering if we get much here. That dry air is really concerning and the short range models don't add confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That was the January 22, 2005 clipper and I have a better chance of banging Anne Hathaway on the moon than a redux of that super clipper happening tomorrow. LOL.. Yeah man I know, but J/S.. You never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I hope this ends up like that one clipper back in 2005 (correct me if I'm wrong), when we were expecting 3-5" 4"-7" with very high ratios, ended up with almost a foot of snow, especially around the M59/94 areas where heavy bands developed... Does anyone remember that one? Started off very lightly in the am, picked up drastically, 1-2" per hour for 6 hours. Looked like a blizzard outside. Great storm! 0 chance this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 My new calls: Milwaukee: 0.8 Chicago o'hare: 0.6 Sorry, but in light of the dry soundings pessimism rules the roost from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Radar indicates a classic virga structure, echoes as low as 3500 ft in the band parked over Madison. Surface temp and dewpoint are slowly rising, 13/2 F at MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 .4 looking bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I hate to be too debbie downerish but I'm really wondering if we get much here. That dry air is really concerning and the short range models don't add confidence. 0.0". Not even a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That was the January 22, 2005 clipper and I have a better chance of banging Anne Hathaway on the moon than a redux of that super clipper happening tomorrow. Classic SSC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Local guidance is giving me 1 to 2.5"... Lots of dry air out there and models have done a poor job compensating for the dry mid/lower levels so far this year. I think it's safe to say Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor will end up with just under an inch out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Local guidance is giving me 1 to 2.5"... Lots of dry air out there and models have done a poor job compensating for the dry mid/lower levels so far this year. I think it's safe to say Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor will end up with just under an inch out of this. If those places get an under an inch its a big bust on every model. I hope Im not jinxing things by saying this but I actually meant to post this earlier and forgot...wanted to remind everyone that there WILL be virga before the snow commences. Its probably going to be one of those classic amwx clipper situations where everyone is posting how they will bust, all the snow is being eaten up by the dry air, etc and in the end they do about as expected. Model qpf takes virga into account. Not that they cant underdo the dry air, but they are taking it into account with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0.0". Not even a flake. 'copter what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Local guidance is giving me 1 to 2.5"... Lots of dry air out there and models have done a poor job compensating for the dry mid/lower levels so far this year. I think it's safe to say Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor will end up with just under an inch out of this. I dont really think it's safe to say anything like that until we look at how quick the dry layer is eroded, actually. Could easily be a nowcast situation but I definitely disagree with your call about Ann Arbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Some, NAM, Virga and Decaying is hopefully enough for only a DAB on the garbage cans. winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I guess we'll see what happens I agree with the nowcasting. As is with any developing/phasing systems, nothing is ever right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 My new calls: Milwaukee: 0.8 Chicago o'hare: 0.6 Sorry, but in light of the dry soundings pessimism rules the roost from me. one bright spot for your call NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WITH DRY EASTERLY CESSPOOL FLOW AND ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT INSTEAD A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...THE GOOD FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY LAYER ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That DVN 0z raob pushed me over the cliff. Really don't think we see much here. Half inch maybe. I can't agree with LOT and think they'll bust unless they do an update and go lower but I really don't see 1-2" here and 2-3" closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fwiw... GRR update... ISSUED AT 857 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 WE ARE UPDATING THE FCST PACKAGE THIS EVENING TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF SNOW FROM EARLY FRI MORNING THROUGH FRI EVENING. WE HAVE BEEN EVALUATING THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FOR MASON...OCEANA... MUSKEGON...LAKE...AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN 4 INCHES MAINLY WITH THE BURST OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. IT IS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THAT WILL SEE AMOUNTS AROUND OR MORE THAN 4 INCHES DUE TO THE LAKE BAND THAT WILL BE COMING ASHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM MUSKEGON NORTH LOOK LIKE A VERY GOOD BET TO SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That DVN 0z raob pushed me over the cliff. Really don't think we see much here. Half inch maybe. I can't agree with LOT and think they'll bust unless they do an update and go lower but I really don't see 1-2" here and 2-3" closer to the lake. I agree... I'm really doubting much even over this way. I think we'll all be surprised at what comes of this, and not in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 My new calls: Milwaukee: 0.8 Chicago o'hare: 0.6 Sorry, but in light of the dry soundings pessimism rules the roost from me. IMO, Milwaukee is going to do better then that. Your closer to the maximum lift area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Shouldnt we be seeing precip blossoming over the s.plains....tn valley by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 He has a couple 6" bands on the map...one se of Kokomo and another farther north. 0.0". Not even a flake. I don't like calling bust before the fact, but............................bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Shouldnt we be seeing precip blossoming over the s.plains....tn valley by now? Not sure. Haven't been paying attention to the southern component. All my snow (such that it is) is coming from the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Not sure. Haven't been paying attention to the southern component. All my snow (such that it is) is coming from the northern plains. Our snow here will be from the combo platter. Nothing going on yet to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Not expecting much at all here. Maybe a couple of inches of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If you're going to see a complete bust, it's little POS systems such as this one. Seen it happen a few times, where you go to bed expecting something but wake up to barren ground and filtered sun. Dry air has to be respected. Folks up north (WI/MI) and east (OH) shouldn't fret though, they'll be closer to the respective lows and forcing should take over at some point. For us in IL and most of IN stuck in the middle...it might be curtains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't like calling bust before the fact, but............................bust Chad's Bust.jpg lol, that map sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If you're going to see a complete bust, it's little POS systems such as this one. Seen it happen a few times, where you go to bed expecting something but wake up to barren ground and filtered sun. Dry air has to respected. Folks up north (WI/MI) and east (OH) shouldn't fret though, they'll be closer to the respective lows and forcing should take over at some point. For us in IL and most of IN...it might be curtains. meh i've been under warnings with 9-13" point forecasts and ended up with a dusting...this has always been a 1-3" max event, so a dusting is hardly a major upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That was the January 22, 2005 clipper and I have a better chance of banging Anne Hathaway on the moon than a redux of that super clipper happening tomorrow. I'm hoping I do okay in northern Scarborough. Not sure though. It might be a bluffs special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I guess we'll see what happens I agree with the nowcasting. As is with any developing/phasing systems, nothing is ever right. Right after I posted that the NAM came out total SUCKAGE. Still over an inch but dry air or not, suspiciously weak with the qpf. Luckily the NAM has been the least consistent model for this event...Id like to see a solid 2". So right about nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I agree... I'm really doubting much even over this way. I think we'll all be surprised at what comes of this, and not in a good way. Lake enhancement may help out a bit as the flow goes westerly and eventually wnw/nw. Thus i still think 1-3 is a good call for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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