Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Flakes better be in the size of dinner plates to get into you know who's range. Chad updated...barely any changes...going 2-6" area wide with 2-3" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 O lol! I thought I saw " mark after the 30! I figured you'd be over 30" or near that for the season, since you were ground 0 for the solstice storm! I am at 30. I know there's some other people over 30. I'm there soon enough. Time flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Unless I'm reading the map wrong, it looks decent for northeast Scarborough. WRF and the 4km NAM are pushing the band further inland than I would have thought. Actually those models are hitting the east side of the city hardest, with l'il ole me here in Etobicoke on the fringes. Seems they're liking more of a SE/SSE flow rather than E/ESE. Actually, the more I look at it, the more I'm thinking that where the LES doesn't pan out, only a dusting or thin coating might fall. Looking more like an all or nothing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Chicago fans, here's the new ABC7 Microcast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thinking about 1" for mby. 4" or more is still possible for the eastern half of Toronto, SE York, S Durham and S Northumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 .2" off, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The last microcast Caplan showed about 10 minutes ago was different yet. Had the 2" line through Lake Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I actually wouldn't be too disappointed to get between 1 and 2" as the microcast suggests. Just keep accumulating those nickel and dimers somehow and it would be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Chad updated...barely any changes...going 2-6" area wide with 2-3" for LAF. Who's getting the 6"? And Andy, I'm there too. 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ready to give up on this winter? Poppycock. I'll keep hoping until there's no hope left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Noticed the NAM hard trended to the GFS in terms of QPF locally here. Around .2" I would say it has pretty good credence too looking at the soundings. DGZ over 250mb deep for 8 or 9 hours. If we saturate like both the NAM and GFS show now, could be a pretty good hit, maybe in the 3-4" range. Does the DGZ over 250mb deep mean good flake size (and ratios)? DTX and MKX both cited 20-1 ratios. A good average of qpf for DTW is 0.15", so that should be a solid 2-3" snowfal, maybe 4". Some models have closer to 0.20". Good old fashioned clipper incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 LOT not changing their thinking on snowfall accumulations. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW TONIGHTAND A VERY MESSY WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY LIKELY HAVING ANIMPACT ON THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...STILL EXPECT A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING LIGHTSNOW IS EXPECTED FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND INTOCENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS EVENT WILL BE DRIVEN BYISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA FROM A VORT MAX PUSHING OVERTHE AREA. THUS THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALLRATES FOR A FEW HOURS ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. EVALUATING 12ZGUIDANCE...THE NAM HAS COME AROUND TO THE IDEA OF PRECIPITATIONOCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNINGS RUN...WHILE THEGFS HAS COME IN A BIT DRIER THAN ITS LAST SEVERAL CYCLES AND THEECMWF ACTUALLY A HAIR MORE QPF. THIS STILL YIELDS THE SAME GENERALIDEA OF A RANGE OF .05 TO .15 LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THISSYSTEM...LESS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND MOST IN THE NORTHEAST.ACCOUNTING FOR THE COLD AIR MASS AND GOOD SATURATION AND LIFTTHROUGH TWO DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYERS...A FLUFFY HIGH RATIO SNOW ISEXPECTED. GIVEN EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGEFROM JUST UNDER AN INCH/UP TO 1 INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA TO UPTO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.DUE TO THE LARGE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB SEEN MOSTPROMINENTLY ON THE 12Z ILX RAOB...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS SOME UNTILLATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY LIKELIES IN THE NORTHWEST FROM 6ZTO 9Z. HOWEVER SINCE WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WITH DRYEASTERLY FLOW AND ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT INSTEAD A WARMADVECTION PATTERN...THE GOOD FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THEINITIALLY DRY LAYER ALOFT. SO ONCE TO LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TOWARDDAYBREAK...HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH CATEGORICALPOPS...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING.AFTER A LIKELY LULL IN PRECIP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE IINCLUDED LOW POPS FOR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THECYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS SHOWING A STRONGPUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE CLIPPERMID/LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOMESCATTERED...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TOWEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITHTHE OTHER GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THECOLD FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIOOCCURRING. BUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NAM SCENARIO...BUMPED UP MIDAFTERNOON POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTION OFTHE CWA. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLEBY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER20S...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING WESTERLY DURING THEAFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Expect a solid frosting here later tonight. Good luck to those north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea but you trust your aunts measurements? LOL considering that I showed her how and where to measure on her lot, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 From Environment Canada: WOCN11 CWTO 242303Special weather statementIssued by Environment CanadaAt 6:03 PM EST Thursday 24 January 2013.---------------------------------------------------------------------Special weather statement for:=new= City of Toronto=new= Pickering - Oshawa - Southern Durham Region=new= Cobourg - Colborne - Western Northumberland County. Some snow Friday with the added risk of a Lake Ontario snow Squall.---------------------------------------------------------------------==discussion==An Alberta clipper tracking southeastwards towards the Lower GreatLakes will give a fairly minor snowfall to much of Southern Ontarioon Friday. However, light southeast winds ahead of the low willdevelop during the day and are expected to help steer a fairly strongLake Ontario snow squall towards the north shore of Lake Ontario.This squall will most likely intensify over the lake in the morningthen slowly meander towards the shoreline from near Toronto eastwardsto Cobourg by afternoon. Some locales along this corridor may beimpacted with one or two periods of heavier snow if this squallbrushes the area. It may linger into the evening as well.Snowfall totals may be in the 5 to locally 10 cm range from thecombination of the Alberta clipper and snow squall. But localizedamounts may surpass this. A snow squall warning is not anticipatedAt this time but cannot be ruled out.Winds are expected to be light thus blowing snow would not be anissue with the squall if it materializes. However, visibilities maybe very low with a few centimetres of accumulation in a short time.Commuters and travellers should be prepared for potentially hazardousconditions should the snow squall develop.The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings aswarnings may be required.Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from EnvironmentCanada at www.weatheroffice.gc.caEND/OSPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah, this winter just (and forum) just keep getting better and better. Am I the only one over 30 in this f'n place? 55 here. People may sometimes think I'm 12 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 From Environment Canada: WOCN11 CWTO 242303 Special weather statement Issued by Environment Canada At 6:03 PM EST Thursday 24 January 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Special weather statement for: =new= City of Toronto =new= Pickering - Oshawa - Southern Durham Region =new= Cobourg - Colborne - Western Northumberland County. Some snow Friday with the added risk of a Lake Ontario snow Squall. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==discussion== An Alberta clipper tracking southeastwards towards the Lower Great Lakes will give a fairly minor snowfall to much of Southern Ontario on Friday. However, light southeast winds ahead of the low will develop during the day and are expected to help steer a fairly strong Lake Ontario snow squall towards the north shore of Lake Ontario. This squall will most likely intensify over the lake in the morning then slowly meander towards the shoreline from near Toronto eastwards to Cobourg by afternoon. Some locales along this corridor may be impacted with one or two periods of heavier snow if this squall brushes the area. It may linger into the evening as well. Snowfall totals may be in the 5 to locally 10 cm range from the combination of the Alberta clipper and snow squall. But localized amounts may surpass this. A snow squall warning is not anticipated At this time but cannot be ruled out. Winds are expected to be light thus blowing snow would not be an issue with the squall if it materializes. However, visibilities may be very low with a few centimetres of accumulation in a short time. Commuters and travellers should be prepared for potentially hazardous conditions should the snow squall develop. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca END/OSPC From what I'm seeing, the 18z NAM/RGEM/WRF don't turn the winds easterly at all. We get a 150 flow that goes to calm later tomorrow night and then shifts to the north on Saturday as the coastal storm takes charge. It's going to be tough for Toronto, aside from Scarborough, to really get into the good stuff if the winds stay SSE. That's extremely unfortunate because some of those models actually are hinting at a single dominant band despite the wind shear. That band could produce well in excess of 4". But right now Oshawa to me seems like it'll be the sweet spot. It's close enough that we're going to have to keep an eye on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Who's getting the 6"? And Andy, I'm there too. 37. He has a couple 6" bands on the map...one se of Kokomo and another farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 He has a couple 6" bands on the map...one se of Kokomo and another farther north. lol, congrats Jim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I can't believe my grid point is up to 2-4". With 2-5" about a few miles west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RAP kinda looks like the NAM with reluctance to saturate the low levels. Will have to check the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RAP kinda looks like the NAM with reluctance to saturate the low levels. Will have to check the HRRR. Doesn't look any better unless you're down near Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah, this winter just (and forum) just keep getting better and better. Am I the only one over 30 in this f'n place? 51 on this end... lol, congrats Jim. Hallelujah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z ILX and DVN soundings have very dry air aloft, so we know it's real, the question is how fast it goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Light snow has commenced. Expecting 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Comparing 18z NAM/GFS soundings to observed soundings from MSP/GRB/DVN/ILX, the NAM is doing much better with the dry air aloft...and in the case of ILX, it's even much drier than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I hope this ends up like that one clipper back in 2005 (correct me if I'm wrong), when we were expecting 3-5" 4"-7" with very high ratios, ended up with almost a foot of snow, especially around the M59/94 areas where heavy bands developed... Does anyone remember that one? Started off very lightly in the am, picked up drastically, 1-2" per hour for 6 hours. Looked like a blizzard outside. Great storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z ILX and DVN soundings have very dry air aloft, so we know it's real, the question is how fast it goes away. dvn.gif ilx.gif was just going to mention DVN....-45 deg C dew point at 850mb. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I hope this ends up like that one clipper back in 2005 (correct me if I'm wrong), when we were expecting 3-5" 4"-7" with very high ratios, ended up with almost a foot of snow, especially around the M59/94 areas where heavy bands developed... Does anyone remember that one? Started off very lightly in the am, picked up drastically, 1-2" per hour for 6 hours. Looked like a blizzard outside. Great storm! That was the January 22, 2005 clipper and I have a better chance of banging Anne Hathaway on the moon than a redux of that super clipper happening tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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