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January 24-25th Potential Winter Weather Event


dmc76

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Noticed the NAM hard trended to the GFS in terms of QPF locally here. Around .2" I would say it has pretty good credence too looking at the soundings. DGZ over 250mb deep for 8 or 9 hours. If we saturate like both the NAM and GFS show now, could be a pretty good hit, maybe in the 3-4" range.

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you think dmc slant sticks? I thought he was in some topographically favored area of SE MI.

 

My aunt lives in the same part of the county as he does, unless there is a crazy micro climate between the 2 I'd have to say it is possible. Either that or the correct protocol of a snowboard isn't being used correctly.

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wrf_precip01_F34.gif

 

Enhancement becoming apparent on the hi-res WRF now. Nothing out of this world, but should make up for this lackluster storm. In fact, the system snow is looking so meager now I might just move discussion of this to the LES thread.

 

Great posts snowstormcanuck! Honestly considering last winter, and being away for the last week of Dec/first week of January, the possibility of 4" would be like getting 20+ cm during a normal season. I think accumulations will be pretty spotty across the GTA as, like you said, this looks like more of a LES event. Models are usually fairly poor and detecting this type of set up; I reckon most places will have about an inch of snow, with luckier areas receiving up to 2-3 inches. I hope your 4" possibility prediction prevails, however!

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My aunt lives in the same part of the county as he does, unless there is a crazy micro climate between the 2 I'd have to say it is possible. Either that or the correct protocol of a snowboard isn't being used correctly.

 

I know how to measure snow buddy.

 

My location is roughly 2 miles south of Lakeville and 6 Miles ENE of Lake Orion 

 

DTW: Season totals 13.4"

MBY:                         19.0" 5.6" difference

 

 

                   DTW                          MBY             DIF

Nov 26th        0.3"                          1.5"           +1.2 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow201211251256  

 

 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2012/post-4267-0-49446200-1353853980.jpg

 

 

Xmas              0.5"                         1.6"            +2.3 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow201212251443

Dec 26/27      6.2"                          8.0"           +4.1 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow201212271153

Jan 5th           0.3"                          1.8"          +5.6"

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I know how to measure snow buddy.

My location is roughly 2 miles south of Lakeville and 6 Miles ENE of Lake Orion

DTW: Season totals 13.4"

MBY: 19.0" 5.6" difference

DTW MBY DIF

Nov 26th 0.3" 1.5" +1.2 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow201211251256

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2012/post-4267-0-49446200-1353853980.jpg

Xmas 0.5" 1.6" +2.3 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow201212251443

Dec 26/27 6.2" 8.0" +4.1 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow201212271153

Jan 5th 0.3" 1.8" +5.6"

Then there is an insane microclimate change in the 3 miles between where you live and where my aunt lives........
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Great posts snowstormcanuck! Honestly considering last winter, and being away for the last week of Dec/first week of January, the possibility of 4" would be like getting 20+ cm during a normal season. I think accumulations will be pretty spotty across the GTA as, like you said, this looks like more of a LES event. Models are usually fairly poor and detecting this type of set up; I reckon most places will have about an inch of snow, with luckier areas receiving up to 2-3 inches. I hope your 4" possibility prediction prevails, however!

 

Thanks for this. Just for clarification, the 4"+ I am calling for is highly localized. Most of us will stay south of that mark.

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Yeah, this winter just (and forum) just keep getting better and better. Am I the only one over 30 in this f'n place?

 

Outside of the UP of MI, I would say so!

 

At least the EURO didn't back off.

 

MKX going with 20:1 ratios tomorrow.

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I meant age but damn funny you were thinking snow totals. :)

 

O lol! I thought I saw " mark after the 30! I figured you'd be over 30" or near that for the season, since you were ground 0 for the solstice storm!

 

I am at 30. I know there's some other people over 30.

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wrf_precip01_F34.gif

 

Enhancement becoming apparent on the hi-res WRF now. Nothing out of this world, but should make up for this lackluster storm. In fact, the system snow is looking so meager now I might just move discussion of this to the LES thread.

Unless I'm reading the map wrong, it looks decent for northeast Scarborough.

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