wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0.94" for ORD 0.8" for Alek 1.6" for MKE 0.6" here in IKK Eh, for MKE I'm going with 1.2", right in between my initial inkling of 1-1.5". ORD 1.3" somehow someway. Similar for Alek, as he might get some LES this afternoon and that I will factor into the total even though they are separate entities. The GFS came in drier. The Ensembles, even last night, were all showing the high end of 0.1-0.25", so if they go drier now, it's a big fail for the GFS Ensembles, and you wonder why I say I don't even trust them 24-48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Eh, for MKE I'm going with 1.2", right in between my initial inkling of 1-1.5". ORD 1.3" somehow someway. Similar for Alek, as he might get some LES this afternoon and that I will factor into the total even though they are separate entities. The GFS came in drier. The Ensembles, even last night, were all showing the high end of 0.1-0.25", so if they go drier now, it's a big fail for the GFS Ensembles, and you wonder why I say I don't even trust them 24-48 hours out. I see 0.10-0.25" on the 0z GEFS, but how do you know it's on the high end? 12z NAM has 0.16" for MKE, BTW. Seems to fit the above range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I see 0.10-0.25" on the 0z GEFS, but how do you know it's on the high end? 12z NAM has 0.16" for MKE, BTW. Seems to fit the above range. Most of the individual members had the >0.25" isotherm right along Lake Michigan, so it is extrapolating between 0.2 and 0.25" for most of the Milwaukee and Chicago metro areas. Here are the maps I'm using: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_0z/f78.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Most of the individual members had the >0.25" isotherm right along Lake Michigan, so it is extrapolating between 0.2 and 0.25" for most of the Milwaukee and Chicago metro areas. Here are the maps I'm using: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_0z/f78.html Chuck'em deep. I see zero with the 0.25" line near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Chuck'em deep. I see zero with the 0.25" line near Chicago. I was speaking in general terms, moreso referring to Milwaukee where all of them have the 0.25" hugging the city or just east. Now the 12z put neither Chicago or Milwaukee in even 0.10". That's a pretty big shift 24 hours out, wouldn't you say? A drying shift anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol, come on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I was speaking in general terms, moreso referring to Milwaukee where all of them have the 0.25" hugging the city or just east. Now the 12z put neither Chicago or Milwaukee in even 0.10". That's a pretty big shift 24 hours out, wouldn't you say? A drying shift anyway. There's LES taint in those images you showed. Regardless, you can't assume 0.25" over the Lake translates to the west. Again, most of the guidance is around 0.15" for MKE. Not sure how that is unrealistic or unexpected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol, come on now My only premise is that the signs are indicating that even the GFS Ensembles suck, they look to have been way too bullish on precip even 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My only premise is that the signs are indicating that even the GFS Ensembles suck, they look to have been way too bullish on precip even 36 hours out. i haven't seen anything remotely bullish on this event period since the NAM 84 hours out. This has been a minor event at best for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There's LES taint in those images you showed. Regardless, you can't assume 0.25" over the Lake translates to the west. Again, most of the guidance is around 0.15" for MKE. Not sure how that is unrealistic or unexpected at this point. LES taint is included in the totals on the 12z GFS as well, and both cities are still under 0.10" with that. The GEM and UK had around 0.10"QPF for Milwaukee, so imho that is what we will get, give or take a few hundredths, hence my 1.2" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i haven't seen anything remotely bullish on this event period since the NAM 84 hours out. This has been a minor event at best for days. Look at those ensemble maps I posted at the top. They all have just under 0.25" QPF, which would be 3-4", bullish by the terms of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 LES taint is included in the totals on the 12z GFS as well, and both cities are still under 0.10" with that. The GEM and UK had around 0.10"QPF for Milwaukee, so imho that is what we will get, give or take a few hundredths, hence my 1.2" call. You weird obsession with discrediting the GEFS is skewing your objectivity here. This event hasn't been around 0.20-0.25" for MKE in awhile. But, I'm not sure why you're looking at them inside 36 hours. At this point, the short range models should have it covered/figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You weird obsession with discrediting the GEFS is skewing your objectivity here. This event hasn't been around 0.20-0.25" for MKE in awhile. But, I'm not sure why you're looking at them inside 36 hours. At this point, the short range models should have it covered/figured out. Doesn't that strengthen my point? I'm saying they were an outlier 36 hours out, which is a big problem wrt their accuracy. Since they are the only ensemble group I have access to individual members for, I am going to be analyzing them to death. It's not worth arguing about, but I can't see why you are arguing that they are accurate enough when the trends suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I see 0.10-0.25" on the 0z GEFS, but how do you know it's on the high end? 12z NAM has 0.16" for MKE, BTW. Seems to fit the above range. Most of the individual members had the >0.25" isotherm right along Lake Michigan, so it is extrapolating between 0.2 and 0.25" for most of the Milwaukee and Chicago metro areas. Here are the maps I'm using: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_0z/f78.html Isotherm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Isotherm? I meant line, border, I was struggling to come up with the best phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Doesn't that strengthen my point? I'm saying they were an outlier 36 hours out, which is a big problem wrt their accuracy. Since they are the only ensemble group I have access to individual members for, I am going to be analyzing them to death. It's not worth arguing about, but I can't see why you are arguing that they are accurate enough when the trends suggest otherwise. What I'm arguing is that 0.25"+ over Lake Michigan doesn't add 0.05-0.10" to MKE's total for this event, which again is partly due to LES before the impulse comes through. Look at the 0z individual runs on the AMEX model page. I can't help if you think the GEFS are trash. They're not. But their true usefulness is to make sure the op isn't completely out to lunch with events or the pattern...particularly outside 3 days. I implore you to stick to short range guidance inside 48 hours...they're pretty good close in. In the end though, you believe what you want to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this is still going on, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this is still going on, huh? I've gone too far. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lol. Way to bump something from 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Way to bump something from 3 days ago. I just noticed it. Way to try to play mall cop against SEMI posters. Nobody cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I just noticed it. Way to try to play mall cop against SEMI posters. Nobody cares Coolstorybro. Go slant stick some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Coolstorybro. Go slant stick some more. Go post more LOL's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Models coming together...NAM has .08 and the GFS maybe a touch more for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Enhancement becoming apparent on the hi-res WRF now. Nothing out of this world, but should make up for this lackluster storm. In fact, the system snow is looking so meager now I might just move discussion of this to the LES thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Enhancement becoming apparent on the hi-res WRF now. Nothing out of this world, but should make up for this lackluster storm. In fact, the system snow is looking so meager now I might just move discussion of this to the LES thread. Looks extremely lame for Hamilton once again. I don't think this city has seen more than 10 cm total so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looks extremely lame for Hamilton once again. I don't think this city has seen more than 10 cm total so far this month. Haven't seen that much here either. You might get something as the low transfers to the coast and the winds turn around to the NE briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Models coming together...NAM has .08 and the GFS maybe a touch more for LAF. Flakes better be in the size of dinner plates to get into you know who's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Flakes better be in the size of dinner plates to get into you know who's range. It's all for naught anyway in light of what's coming early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's all for naught anyway in light of what's coming early next week. Snow is snow. 60's are 60's. This winter...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 In retrospect, it was awesome when the NAM was showing 850 temps of 4.6C for LAF. And we briefly considered the possibility of all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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