Thundersnow12 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 real old men lock in calls 72 hours out fixed. We're still young. I'll go 1.2" for MBY and ride a 70/30 blend of the GFS/Euro. Skillings latest RPM had 2-3" for east of 39 and north of 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Man Chad is defiant...still going 3-6" for LAF but you can sense some doubt. Thinks banding and ratios will be good. I'll stop bashing him for the rest of the year if LAF gets 3". 1% chance of seeing 3" of course. EDIT: one of my friends asked me if we were really getting 6" tomorrow. Supposedly three different people told her that today. I was like, WTF? And then I remembered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Caplan showed this map from his microcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'll stop bashing him for the rest of the year if LAF gets 3". 1% chance of seeing 3" of course. EDIT: one of my friends asked me if we were really getting 6" tomorrow. Supposedly three different people told her that today. I was like, WTF? And then I remembered... haha Banding could lead to some scattered higher amounts but 3-6 seems like it would be tough to reach on a widespread basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pros for lake enhancement with this system on Friday for YYZ: 1. Extreme instability. Lake Ontario's water temps still around +7C. With 850 temps staying AOB -15C, this will create delta ts of at least 20, which should be conducive for creating convection. 2. High inversion heights. Looks like the warm layer is 7-10k feet. That's very unusual for an E wind event. Typically WAA aloft from approaching storms from the OV keep inversion heights much lower. 3. Abundant moisture. >95% RH well beyond the inversion height (through 600mb). Cons: 1. Wind shear. As usual, we're not going to have the luxury of a unidirectional flow. This'll inhibit the formation of a single dominant band. 2. Lack of wind fields. The flow is very light and I think this is the biggest red flag. There's a chance anything that does form simply stays offshore or only brushes the shore. Had we had a stronger clipper diving down with a tighter circulation I'd be hitting this potential a lot harder. 3. Transient nature of LES. Wind direction is going to be fluctuating during this event, from S/SSE to E and then eventually NE. With only a few hours of exposure to the snow streamers, it's going to be tough for anything to really pile up. Overall, I'm thinking 1-2" from the synoptic augmented with 2-3" of LES IF the LES makes it onshore, for totals of locally 4"+. High bust potential and the closer you are to Lake Ontario, the better. Ratios per NAM BUFKIT are going to be 20-25:1. Might be a little optimistic but overall we should have efficient accumulation. Great write-up and I agree with your thoughts. This will be an interesting event to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DTX mentions 15-1 ratios...as long as its not pixie dust, Id say its a distinct possibility. Ill go with a widespread 2-3" for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great write-up and I agree with your thoughts. This will be an interesting event to follow. Thanks for the kind words. This is definitely not an ideal LES setup for us but it could add a bit of spice to an otherwise mundane event. Once this gets into the range of the hi-res WRF/NNM some of the details can start getting ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Well the 0z NAM is more moist for IL and IN. That's what she... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lol^ Got a axis of higher qpf coming out of Iowa on this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 yea nam comes in with .17 for cmh. As pawltry as that is...it's a HUGE improvement from last nights 0.0 2-3" looks good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol at that hole over SE MI. Though as Buckeye said qpf for CMH went from 0 to 0.17". NAM has been atrocious with this event, and a huge outlier. I just certainly hope it REMAINS the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS holds its ground. Very widespread (but not heavy) snow event seems on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 2-3" totals seem reasonable. Perhaps a heavy three inch along the I94 corrior with LES aiding in the aftermath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pros for lake enhancement with this system on Friday for YYZ: 1. Extreme instability. Lake Ontario's water temps still around +7C. With 850 temps staying AOB -15C, this will create delta ts of at least 20, which should be conducive for creating convection. 2. High inversion heights. Looks like the warm layer is 7-10k feet. That's very unusual for an E wind event. Typically WAA aloft from approaching storms from the OV keep inversion heights much lower. 3. Abundant moisture. >95% RH well beyond the inversion height (through 600mb). Cons: 1. Wind shear. As usual, we're not going to have the luxury of a unidirectional flow. This'll inhibit the formation of a single dominant band. 2. Lack of wind fields. The flow is very light and I think this is the biggest red flag. There's a chance anything that does form simply stays offshore or only brushes the shore. Had we had a stronger clipper diving down with a tighter circulation I'd be hitting this potential a lot harder. 3. Transient nature of LES. Wind direction is going to be fluctuating during this event, from S/SSE to E and then eventually NE. With only a few hours of exposure to the snow streamers, it's going to be tough for anything to really pile up. Overall, I'm thinking 1-2" from the synoptic augmented with 2-3" of LES IF the LES makes it onshore, for totals of locally 4"+. High bust potential and the closer you are to Lake Ontario, the better. Ratios per NAM BUFKIT are going to be 20-25:1. Might be a little optimistic but overall we should have efficient accumulation. A NE wind should hold the temperature down into the teens for this event, would it not? Great write-up by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Well the 0z NAM is more moist for IL and IN. That's what she... Might have to give it another run or two to show more than a hundredth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Might have to give it another run or two to show more than a hundredth here. It'll figure things out as the event is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 00z Euro looks a little drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The GFS, GEM, and EURO all show 0.1-0.2" qpf....with 15-1 ratios a nice 2-3" of synoptic snow looks to be on the way here (nam notwithstanding lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 A NE wind should hold the temperature down into the teens for this event, would it not? Great write-up by the way. winds will initially be southerly or southeasterly. I think sfc temps will get into the low 20s. BTW...EC even hinting at the chance for enhancement. They're going a general 2-4cm for all of SW Ontario, but for Toronto, southern Durham region and Northumberland county the 5am forecast reads "local amount 5cm". RGEM does show enhancement amounts on the north shore of Lake Ontario and you know how they love that model so I guess they had no choice. EC usually handles reverse lake effect events rather poorly. Glad they're on top of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Having trouble seeing the LES on the NAM but when I switched to the 4km version there is some indication of multibands late tomorrow from Toronto eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0.5-1.0" for LAF. Final. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Primed for a DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Primed for a DAB. finally going on record with an official call? Riding my .4" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Primed for a DAB. been primed for days.. she's flooded now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Primed for a DAB. Measured on a wet driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0.94" for ORD 0.8" for Alek 1.6" for MKE 0.6" here in IKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Primed for a DAB. finally going on record with an official call? Riding my .4" call Yea, should have been done yesterday.0.4", within the DAB (<1") window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 This thing isnt even sampled yet dude. Id wait on making a definitive call yet.Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0.94" for ORD 0.8" for Alek 1.6" for MKE 0.6" here in IKK nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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