A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It really isn't, you should've gone with Bowme's DAB+ call, in large font. To be fair, Chistorm has the DAB call, I'm on the record for .4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You're much too worried about the NAM. Eh, not really. That dry layer gives some pause for perhaps leaning a hair lower than consensus model qpf...all in all I think we're good for an inch or a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 To be fair, Chistorm has the DAB call, I'm on the record for .4" True, and in YBY, that may turn out true. Actually, the Skilling/Alek blend is my personal call for you, which is 1.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Eh, not really. That dry layer gives some pause for perhaps leaning a hair lower than consensus model qpf...all in all I think we're good for an inch or a bit more. Like today, I think most areas will see the very light numbers on the NAM verify but there will probably be a couple narrow bands where banding is more persistent allowing hyper isolated 2-3” pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Like today, I think most areas will see the very light numbers on the NAM verify but there will probably be a couple narrow bands where banding is more persistent allowing hyper isolated 2-3” pockets. lol, NAM has zero for most of us in IL and IN. So by your method, the virga will be widespread, but a few locales will see 5-6 flakes. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Eh, not really. That dry layer gives some pause for perhaps leaning a hair lower than consensus model qpf...all in all I think we're good for an inch or a bit more. Dryslot on the NAM is running out ahead of the vort too quickly, DTX alluded to this in their AFD this afternoon. THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OFTHE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ANDBRING SOME SNOW TO OUR AREAS FRIDAY. UPPER JET ENERGY ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS WAVE IS CRESTING THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIESTODAY WITH THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS REASONABLY CLOSE ON THE CHARACTEROF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THEPRIMARY MODE OF FORCING FOR SNOW WILL BE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPICLIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY AQUICK BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARMADVECTION PATTERN WILL AFFECT NEARLY ALL OF SE MICHIGAN DURINGFRIDAY WITH A STEADY PERIOD OF SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY GET STARTED BYSUNRISE AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEPRIMARILY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT WITH A HINT OF GULF INFLUENCESHOWING UP IN SYSTEM RELATIVE STREAMLINES ON THE 285K SURFACE. THEBULK OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TIED UP WITH GULF COASTCYCLOGENESIS BUT THIS REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW AMOUNTIN OUR AREA. FIGURING ON SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVERAGING 2 G/KG AROUNDTHE 700 MB LAYER FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS SUGGESTS A GENERAL 2 INCHACCUMULATION BY SUNSET FRIDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN GFS QPFPUSHING 0.20 LIQUID AT ROUGHLY 15:1 RATIO BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE THANTHE NAM OFFERING OF JUST A FEW 100THS. THE NAM SOLUTION IS NOTPREFERRED BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING OF ITS DRY SLOT BEING OUT OFPHASE WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING ON THE EASTWARD PACE OF THE UPPERWAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well someone is going to be wrong. 18z GFS continues and the 3rd run in a row dropping 2-3" in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, NAM has zero for most of us in IL and IN. So by your method, the virga will be widespread, but a few locales will see 5-6 flakes. Take it to the bank. the NAM is a concern and this event will likely be quite lame but I doubt it's as total shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nice little discussion from LOT A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. PREFERRED MODELS ARE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH GIVE CWA ROUGHLY 0.1 LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THUS FOR QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...WHICH IS JUST A BIT DRIER THAN GFS AND 00Z EC. 12Z NAM IS THOUGHT TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE WAVE AND ALSO MUCH TOO DRY WITH ITS MOISTURE FIELDS...GIVEN OTHERWISE SIMILAR SET UP TO GFS AND EC IN TERMS OF SOLID WAA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE COLUMN BUT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING DOES GET THERE AND SHOWS A 3 TO 6 HR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OCCURS WITH GOOD LIFT THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 100 MB DEEP DGZ. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS AREA AND DECENT FGEN NOTED FROM 850-700MB COULD BRING SOME OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW EVENT...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE FRIDAY AM RUSH...ESPECIALLY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ROADS. MAINTAINED INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS...WITH TAPERING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well someone is going to be wrong. 18z GFS continues and the 3rd run in a row dropping 2-3" in northern IL. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_060.gif I would ride a 1-1.5" type of call for Chicago and Milwaukee right now. That is more Euro-like, and a good compromise of the stingy NAM and bullish GFS and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There's a monster dry layer on the models prior to onset, and with this not being a particularly prolonged event, any delay in saturation/precip making it to the ground will cut into amounts. That is what makes me a bit hesitant to swallow the wetter runs (the runs that are spitting out like .2 here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There's a monster dry layer on the models prior to onset, and with this not being a particularly prolonged event, any delay in saturation/precip making it to the ground will cut into amounts. That is what makes me a bit hesitant to swallow the wetter runs (the runs that are spitting out like .2 here) Tis a bad winter. Lots of hand wringing over a potential 1-2" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Tis a bad winter. Lots of hand wringing over a potential 1-2" snow. 3" lollies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There's a monster dry layer on the models prior to onset, and with this not being a particularly prolonged event, any delay in saturation/precip making it to the ground will cut into amounts. That is what makes me a bit hesitant to swallow the wetter runs (the runs that are spitting out like .2 here) Yeah the GFS has it too but overcomes it pretty quickly and very close to a very deep DGZ here for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's not a bad sounding. Moisture from twisterdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 3" lollies Very bullish for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Very bullish for you. if today's event managed 1.5" or so amounts, i'm sure someone in the region sees 3" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Gotta like the 4-5 inches North of 94 in SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 if today's event managed 1.5" or so amounts, i'm sure someone in the region sees 3" tomorrow. Alright, can't argue with that logic. What's your official call for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Alright, can't argue with that logic. What's your official call for ORD? same as MBY - .4", amounts greater than that will be exceptions to the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 same as MBY - .4", amounts greater than that will be exceptions to the rule. Ok. We'll revisit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'll stand by my 1.3" for ORD, I could see it being more though. These types of setups really are efficient in squeezing out every last bit of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Chistorm has the DAB call. Haven't locked anything in...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hey guys, I am following this thread as I will be heading for the Covington, KY - Cincinnati, OH area tomorrow at 7 am. I am a SE VA guy and so am looking at what this Ohio Valley area can provide during winter. Am I correct in seeing 1-3 inches in this area on Friday? GFS looks pretty nice compared to the God Awful NAM. P.S. It just so happens that Norfolk, VA may get 2-4 inches on Friday as well when I leave to miss it so I need my fix in KY. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hey guys, I am following this thread as I will be heading for the Covington, KY - Cincinnati, OH area tomorrow at 7 am. I am a SE VA guy and so am looking at what this Ohio Valley area can provide during winter. Am I correct in seeing 1-3 inches in this area on Friday? GFS looks pretty nice compared to the God Awful NAM. P.S. It just so happens that Norfolk, VA may get 2-4 inches on Friday as well when I leave to miss it so I need my fix in KY. Lol 1-3" seems like a safe bet. Ratios will be closer to 10:1, but the Cincinnati area should catch some of the moisture coming up from the southern wave. I've missed a couple storms as well from being out of town! Sucks if your destination gets less or none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 1-3" seems like a safe bet. Ratios will be closer to 10:1, but the Cincinnati area should catch some of the moisture coming up from the southern wave. I've missed a couple storms as well from being out of town! Sucks if your destination gets less or none! Haha yeah, I hope I don't miss a nice event. Hopefully this one works out in the Ohio Valley though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Point forecast has less than an inch for us, yet the disco mentions a general 1-2" east of the Mississippi. Original call was 1-2", lowered last night to dust-inch. Think I'll just go with an inch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pros for lake enhancement with this system on Friday for YYZ: 1. Extreme instability. Lake Ontario's water temps still around +7C. With 850 temps staying AOB -15C, this will create delta ts of at least 20, which should be conducive for creating convection. 2. High inversion heights. Looks like the warm layer is 7-10k feet. That's very unusual for an E wind event. Typically WAA aloft from approaching storms from the OV keep inversion heights much lower. 3. Abundant moisture. >95% RH well beyond the inversion height (through 600mb). Cons: 1. Wind shear. As usual, we're not going to have the luxury of a unidirectional flow. This'll inhibit the formation of a single dominant band. 2. Lack of wind fields. The flow is very light and I think this is the biggest red flag. There's a chance anything that does form simply stays offshore or only brushes the shore. Had we had a stronger clipper diving down with a tighter circulation I'd be hitting this potential a lot harder. 3. Transient nature of LES. Wind direction is going to be fluctuating during this event, from S/SSE to E and then eventually NE. With only a few hours of exposure to the snow streamers, it's going to be tough for anything to really pile up. Overall, I'm thinking 1-2" from the synoptic augmented with 2-3" of LES IF the LES makes it onshore, for totals of locally 4"+. High bust potential and the closer you are to Lake Ontario, the better. Ratios per NAM BUFKIT are going to be 20-25:1. Might be a little optimistic but overall we should have efficient accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Man Chad is defiant...still going 3-6" for LAF but you can sense some doubt. Thinks banding and ratios will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Haven't locked anything in...yet. real men lock in calls 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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