snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still looking good for some lake enhancement on Friday for YYZ, but the band's going to be transient so we're not talking anything epic. When I get home I'll run BUFKIT to get a preliminary idea of how favourable conditions are going to be. Past experience tells me these kinds of setups can produce locally 3 or 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS looking a bit better for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So here's the rundown for mby: 12z GFS: just over 0.2" QPF 12z NAM: nil 0z Euro: about 0.1" QPF 0 and 6z GFS Ensembles: mostly between 0.1 and 0.25" QPF SREF: very little (less than 0.05" QPF, which makes sense since they are NAM based) LSX WRF: nothing 0z GEM: about 0.15" QPF I thought a relatively straightforward northern stream clipper would be easier to predict than this, but I've been pretty confident the best course is to go with an inch to perhaps two if GFS ends up ringing true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Go NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS has continued to bump up QPF amounts here the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Go NAM Our only futility records at stake are our monthly and seasonal ones, so we might as well root for the GFS and Mike Caplan's RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Go NAM How's MKE been doing? Almost as bad as ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How's MKE been doing? Almost as bad as ORD? 7.2" for the season, hard to say it's almost as bad as ORD, but other areas of the Chicago Metro area have done better than ORD (for instance with lake effect around Christmas), so comparing region wide, it's not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How's MKE been doing? Almost as bad as ORD? pretty much.. 3" of wet snow back before christamas.. Then a little over 3" of pure stat padding fluff that settled to basically nothing in 12 hrs. .3" for Jan so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Our only futility records at stake are our monthly and seasonal ones, so we might as well root for the GFS and Mike Caplan's RPM. DAB+ for this event and plenty of time for the next event to be a congrats Grande Cheese while we mix or ping away. Still got to get through Feb (ugh this winter is going so slow) though if its anything like Jan we'll have a shot for futility entering the Morch Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Geez, NAM still has zilch in IL/IN. Seems like an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UKMET and the GEM are still onboard (especially the UKIE). I don't know about anyone else, but I'll take the UKMET/GFS/GEM/Euro (to an extent) grouping over the NAM and a couple of other out of range short term models (Iike the LSX WRF) anyday. This speaks even more poorly of the NAM if it's wrong, though, as it should be getting into its range (within 48 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Geez, NAM still has zilch in IL/IN. Seems like an outlier at this point. Ride it for all its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 UKMET and the GEM are still onboard (especially the UKIE). I don't know about anyone else, but I'll take the UKMET/GFS/GEM/Euro (to an extent) grouping over the NAM and a couple of other out of range short term models (Iike the LSX WRF) anyday. This speaks even more poorly of the NAM if it's wrong, though, as it should be getting into its range (within 48 hours). Some, NAM, Virga and Decaying is hopefully enough for only a DAB on the garbage cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think I know why the NAM is being so stingy. There's a super dry layer aloft in IL/IN etc...can really see this by looking at 850 mb RH/ dewpoints...that it refuses to get rid of, which could be why the model is not spitting out qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think I know why the NAM is being so stingy. There's a super dry layer aloft in IL/IN etc...can really see this by looking at 850 mb RH/ dewpoints...that it refuses to get rid of, which could be why the model is not spitting out qpf. Right on, good find. I was thinking that might be a reason, but didn't look. NAM has been doing terribly with these little impulses lately, "too dry" issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 epic fail thread Next in line: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38963-january-27-28-wintry-system/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here's an example using LAF. The NAM has extremely dry air aloft while the GFS is saturated at the same time. The GFS does have that dry layer initially but is quicker to saturate it. Basically what this tells me is that it wouldn't be smart to completely write off a drier solution, but perhaps the NAM is going overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There is also the issue where the NAM is meandering the northern vort due east...while all the rest is taking it on a more ESE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There is also the issue where the NAM is meandering the northern vort due east...while all the rest is taking it on a more ESE track. It won't go East like the NAM shows, not with the influence of the system over Eastern Canada, that is a NAM fail right there which would lead to a garbage solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On again, off again with the Euro. Seems with this one that the 0z runs are a little more broad with the light precip, 12z runs are stingier in coverage. Either way, in the end, doesn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DVN THE CWA TO BE MAINLY IMPACTED BY SOME LIGHTER WARM AIRADVECTION WING SNOWS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACRS MN INTO WILATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIAFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS MOSTOF THE CWA TO GET FROM A HALF INCH...UP TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH BYFRI MORNING WITH BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURRING FROM 05Z-12ZFRI. WITH 16:1 TO 20:1 LSR/S...A FEW LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RVRMAY GET UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY MID FRI MORNING. WILL THROW OUT THE00Z NAM WHICH IS TOTALLY DRY FOR THE LOCAL AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 7.2" for the season, hard to say it's almost as bad as ORD, but other areas of the Chicago Metro area have done better than ORD (for instance with lake effect around Christmas), so comparing region wide, it's not far off. Yeah NE Cook County probably has between 6-9" total for the season. In large part to the LES snow event! 12z EURO may be having trouble with the dry layer Hoosier alluded to on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z NAM has some very light precip in IL/IN. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z NAM has some very light precip in IL/IN. Baby steps. The SREFs are trending south with the southern extent of the northern wave clipper too. No surprise, since they are tied to the NAM (and the NAM has been steadfast in dry layering around 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 everyone remember when the NAM was super juicy over IL at 84 hours? Powerhouse model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No, but I remember when someone tried to use the 18z nam to justify their DAB call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No, but I remember when someone tried to use the 18z nam to justify their DAB call That call is looking pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That call is looking pretty strong It really isn't, you should've gone with Bowme's DAB+ call, in large font. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z NAM has some very light precip in IL/IN. Baby steps. You're much too worried about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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