hoosierwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Historically, synoptic scale models have always had a bias in being too progressive aloft and near the surface in moderating temperatures on the heels of an arctic outbreak. Given the coarser vertical resolution in these models, they typically do not capture low-level cold air all that well...and I think they are starting to catch on to this. By Thursday, the large scale guidance shows another trough that will be dropping into the eastern US and re-enforcing the cold air. As this trough gets carved out, there is a separate wave that will be approaching from within the southern stream on the southern periphery of the antecedent Arctic airmass. The operational GFS and Canadian GEM both overpower the northern stream (known model biases) and allows a surface low to cut from the Ozarks northeastward into the Great Lakes. On the other hand, the last few runs of the GFS ensemble and the latest 19/12Z Euro keep the systems more separate and weaker which results in the system passing to our south. Given the model biases here of warming things up too quickly and overpowering the northern jet, we are not going to use the operational GFS and Canadian for this forecast. Instead we will be trending the forecast much closer to the GFS Ensemble and Euro blend. LMK riding the southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Now that a blockier pattern is becoming established over the northern pacific it looks a lot better for keeping the cold and storm potential going. Even if the 24-25 storm doesn't pan out for everyone I think there will be more chances into early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 With regard to the LMK post. There's has been several times though this winter that the northern stream has had a good deal of the energy and kept most of the action in the upper Midwest. I could go either way imo. ... or both branches could phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 With regard to the LMK post. There's has been several times though this winter that the northern stream has had a good deal of the energy and kept most of the action in the upper Midwest. I could go either way imo. ... or both branches could phase. Yeah I don't buy what LMK is selling, this is a Northern stream dominant system, if it phases with the Southern stream that still favors a Northern solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 agree with LMK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 agree with LMK You agree with underwhelming WAA? When does that ever happened, you are the first to come here and always mention that WAA never underwhelms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You agree with underwhelming WAA? When does that ever happened, you are the first to come here and always mention that WAA never underwhelms. different scenario...this is hardly a major negatively tilted storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 different scenario...this is hardly a major negatively tilted storm. Should be strengthening as it approaches the region. Plus the Euro ensembles don't agree with the op at all, the mean tracks trough Southern Ohio. GFS ensembles for the most part are Northern stream dominant or are too progressive and have no system. None of them have a low through Georgia. By all means though put all your eggs in one basket of one Euro run that shifted 500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've lived through a lot of arctic outbreaks in my 55 years, and the models have always seemed to push the cold air out too quickly. However, this seems to be a different world the past couple of years where warm wins. Right now I'd forecast a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Should be strengthening as it approaches the region. Plus the Euro ensembles don't agree with the op at all, the mean tracks trough Southern Ohio. GFS ensembles for the most part are Northern stream dominant or are too progressive and have no system. None of them have a low through Georgia. By all means though put all your eggs in one basket of one Euro run that shifted 500 miles. 12z Euro ensembles aren't crazy different from the op, as you seemingly allude to. They aren't starting that far apart at 120 hours. The op run at 144 hours, of course has a primary in E TN. Euro ENS mean is WV. This isn't cutting over IND or CMH, if it does become southern wave focused...I'll tell ya that. I've lived through a lot of arctic outbreaks in my 55 years, and the models have always seemed to push the cold air out too quickly. However, this seems to be a different world the past couple of years where warm wins. Right now I'd forecast a blend. This isn't a mamby pamby airmass we're talking about though. The last winter and a half is a moot point right now. Yeah, figured it was time for me to reappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Sure it can cut over Ohio. The more southern focused, the more south/north in progression it will come pushing heights upward. Obviously anythings possible, but this thing isn't going neutral/negative west of OH. If anything it'll be one or the other...northern stream blahness or southern stream ESE slider. It ain't cutting over OH from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lets see. Aging Arctic airmass, -PNA, Slightly +NAO? Not the greatest snowcover in the world either. Yeah i am skeptical of the southern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 And no i am not suggesting it is impossible for it to end up as far south as some models suggest. If we had a decent block and the PNA was atleast + i would feel better about the more southern route. jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lets see. Aging Arctic airmass, -PNA, Slightly +NAO? Not the greatest snowcover in the world either. Yeah i am skeptical of the southern solutions. Let's be clear here, this is a northern dominant vs southern dominant deal, isn't it? But aging arctic airmass doesn't jive with me. There's a refresher quickly following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 YES a argument can be made for the aging Arctic airmass but still there is the other issues i mentioned. Let's be clear here, this is a northern dominant vs southern dominant deal, isn't it? But aging arctic airmass doesn't jive with me. There's a refresher quickly following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 ugh.. Quoting here is screwed up or something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyways AGAIN i am not making a call. Just stating that there is a few things going against the southern route. Models could as well be off with the PNA/NAO predictions as well. This is STILL over 120hrs out and it is bound to change a few more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lets see. Aging Arctic airmass, -PNA, Slightly +NAO? Not the greatest snowcover in the world either. Yeah i am skeptical of the southern solutions. Good points. Especially the NAO and snowcover issue. Lake effect snowcover won't really count. Will be in between two periods of colder air masses at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Anyways AGAIN i am not making a call. Just stating that there is a few things going against the southern route. Models could as well be off with the PNA/NAO predictions as well. This is STILL over 120hrs out and it is bound to change a few more times. It's all good. Real discussion with reasoning is what's its all about IMO. Sorely lacking lately. I will "argue" that brief PNA rise and then fall (as those charts showed) during the storm is pretty typical, no? There's no definitive decisions to made at this point. We'll see how it plays out in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Good points. Especially the NAO and snowcover issue. Lake effect snowcover won't really count. Will be in between two periods of colder air masses at that time. There is valid points on both sides of the argument. I would wait and see what we have in a day or so. As mentioned above this thing is still 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Extended forecast for MBY... Light snow showers for Thursday. No mention of accumulation. Temps climb to near 40 by Monday, the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's all good. Real discussion with reasoning is what's its all about IMO. Sorely lacking lately. I will "argue" that brief PNA rise and then fall (as those charts showed) during the storm is pretty typical, no? There's no definitive decisions to made at this point. We'll see how it plays out in the coming days. Agree about the reasoning part. I think you meant the NAO? Amazing how hard it seems to get and keep the PNA+.. I will note though that the other site is not as agressive with the -PNA/+NAO.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml That actually has the PNA more on the +positive side. Go figure. But yeah give it a day or two and then see what we have. I remember these models a few days back advertising a clipper for Monday and that vanished once it got inside of day 5.. Why i always prefer to wait till we are inside of day 5/120hrs before starting a storm potential thread. Thats me though. Oh and wow has the winds picked up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Agree about the reasoning part. I think you meant the NAO? Amazing how hard it seems to get and keep the PNA+.. I will note though that the other site is not as agressive with the -PNA/+NAO.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml That actually has the PNA more on the +positive side. Go figure. But yeah give it a day or two and then see what we have. I remember these models a few days back advertising a clipper for Monday and that vanished once it got inside of day 5.. Why i always prefer to wait till we are inside of day 5/120hrs before starting a storm potential thread. Thats me though. Oh and wow has the winds picked up here. No I was talking PNA. If the system in question is for the 24-25th, the chart you posted was positive right up before the system on the 23rd, then falls thereafter. Of course it's vice versa with respect to the NAO. Eh, indices. Still much time left to let this all shake out. It'd be nice if this took a turn for the historic and went all Jan 1978 on us, or something. 35th year anniversary is quickly approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z GFS = mess of a system. Progressive and south again. Edit: Watch the EURO change itself. Anyone know when the NCEP side will be back to normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z GFS like the Euro now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 No I was talking PNA. If the system in question is for the 24-25th, the chart you posted was positive right up before the system on the 23rd, then falls thereafter. Of course it's vice versa with respect to the NAO. Eh, indices. Still much time left to let this all shake out. It'd be nice if this took a turn for the historic and went all Jan 1978 on us, or something. 35th year anniversary is quickly approaching. We can atleast still dream. And wow on it now being 35yrs. Ugh i am getting old. I see the 00z GFS has gone the euro route. Now watch the euro switch back. lol Anything to torture people more. Nothing ever comes easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Tim the GFS makes your case very well for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We can atleast still dream. And wow on it now being 35yrs. Ugh i am getting old. I see the 00z GFS has gone the euro route. Now watch the euro switch back. lol Anything to torture people more. Nothing can never be easy. Yup. Tis the season of laughable model watching and hair pulling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 No I was talking PNA. If the system in question is for the 24-25th, the chart you posted was positive right up before the system on the 23rd, then falls thereafter. Of course it's vice versa with respect to the NAO. Eh, indices. Still much time left to let this all shake out. It'd be nice if this took a turn for the historic and went all Jan 1978 on us, or something. 35th year anniversary is quickly approaching. Yeah, I mentioned the 35th anniversary yesterday. What would have to happen to get the two systems to phase? Is that even possible at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We can atleast still dream. And wow on it now being 35yrs. Ugh i am getting old. I see the 00z GFS has gone the euro route. Now watch the euro switch back. lol Anything to torture people more. Nothing ever comes easy. I was two months shy of 3 years old for that one. Quite the shift on the models the past couple of days. I fear filtered sun much more than I do 36º and rain. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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