wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the drying trend has been evident across all models over the last 24 hours or so, it's not just NAM fantasy. Have not seen it on the GEM or GFS really. Euro barely had anything for us from the start so no change there. The NAM had really light amounts except for its first run which we all knew was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 dog **** froster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is a rhetorical question but since it changed a ton since just yesterday, why would I trust Skilling's (apparently weenie) RPM? I wish there was one model out there I could feel decently confident in, but that is not the case these days. It seems to be in line with the GFS and the last run of the NAM. So fwiw: it's not way out in lala land like the nogaps was yesterday and it's not as bullish as the GGEM either. Looks like the NAM beefed up accumulations for SE WI. 0.2"+ for you and BowMe. Between 0.1-0.15" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 dog **** froster You're right about that. Even my inkling at a 1-2" call is likely to be too bullish with the negative feeling I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the drying trend has been evident across all models over the last 24 hours or so, it's not just NAM fantasy. 18z run still spits out .15" liquid so with good ratios you're talking close to 2" possibly as it will have no problem sticking with the cold sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Text from Caplan about their microcast...2-6" I-80 north to IL/WI border, highest further north and downwind of the lake. Just as bad as Skillings RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 off of the SREF for probs of a 100mb or greater DGZ, some models have hinted at a pretty nice one for a 3-6hr period around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just as bad as Skillings RPM. If you go with DAB and nail it you will deserve an award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If you go with DAB and nail it you will deserve an award. Pretty sure he went with DAB for GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty sure he went with DAB for GHD. always good for a solid one liner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If you go with DAB and nail it you will deserve an award. 3rd and 5 at the 10, Falcons season on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty sure he went with DAB for GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 always good for a solid one liner. I'm disappointed I won't be able to troll you tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm disappointed I won't be able to troll you tonight. Ice fishing with BowMe instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Chad Evans still thinks 3-6" for LAF and 18:1 ratios. I'm having trouble seeing those kind of ratios...the DGZ does approach 100 mb depth but uvv just isn't that strong. Then there's the model qpf...assuming 18:1, we would need at least .17 to even get to the lower end of that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Microcast! Lock it in. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Verifying calls 2-3 days out via the NAM FTL. +∞ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 from a great forecaster friend of mine.. for my area "I honestly don't buy the models' solution for Thursday Night/Friday. I'd guess we'll get 2-4" of snow. ratios/length of event, think vert motion, per s/wv trof & associated waa will be sufficient here for one or two decent hours of snow..experience from s/wv's coming this path in this situation from artic air to pretty substantial (relative) wamrth says this will be more than progged. Weird thing is ..WAA much different w/o snow cover (plays havoc in BL). But I'd put money on 3", give or take. Going on a limb, but I'm pretty confident in it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 from a great forecaster friend of mine.. for my area "I honestly don't buy the models' solution for Thursday Night/Friday. I'd guess we'll get 2-4" of snow. ratios/length of event, think vert motion, per s/wv trof & associated waa will be sufficient here for one or two decent hours of snow..experience from s/wv's coming this path in this situation from artic air to pretty substantial (relative) wamrth says this will be more than progged. Weird thing is ..WAA much different w/o snow cover (plays havoc in BL). But I'd put money on 3", give or take. Going on a limb, but I'm pretty confident in it." Our LOT friend and Stebo agree...so your friend isn't alone. Anything more than 2" would surprise me...especially if it's more than some hyper local reports from areas under enhanced bands. My guess is that .5-1.5" amounts will be the norm across LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For consistency sake I'll continue to ride my 1-2" call for here and the QC, but favor the lower amounts at this point. 12z and 18z GFS both show <0.1 precip here, and the both NAM runs only around 0.1". Normally a non-event, but in this case might have a chance at being the #2 event of the winter so far. Would only have to top 0.8" to achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Our LOT friend and Stebo agree...so your friend isn't alone. Anything more than 2" would surprise me...especially if it's more than some hyper local reports from areas under enhanced bands. My guess is that .5-1.5" amounts will be the norm across LOT. IWX is thinking 2"-3" and IND is calling for 1"-3" across their area with both offices thinking at or slightly than higher than climo ratios (12:1). I might actually break into double digits for seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When's this system being sampled... tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 1"-3" sounds about right for Chicago, Personally I hope 3" as that breaks several streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Our LOT friend and Stebo agree...so your friend isn't alone. Anything more than 2" would surprise me...especially if it's more than some hyper local reports from areas under enhanced bands. My guess is that .5-1.5" amounts will be the norm across LOT. Yeah I'm with you as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When's this system being sampled... tonight? no no, it won't be fully on shore till after 0z tomorrow. 12z runs Thursday will be best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If we get this, say 3", the 9 and 7 we have had will put us almost normal for the year. I know, alone in the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If we get this, say 3", the 9 and 7 we have had will put us almost normal for the year. I know, alone in the sub forum.We've had almost that much down here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 00z NAM is an absolute disaster...0 qpf for like all of IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAM is trolling us big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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