Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Skilling is going with a widespread 2" event by the sounds of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Skilling is going with a widespread 2" event by the sounds of it. This would double my SEASON total. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 skilling has busted high on every event this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 skilling has busted high on every event this year Who hasn't busted high multiple times in Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Who hasn't busted high multiple times in Chicago? Maybe Chistorm...but I think that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 skilling has busted high on every event this year Who hasn't busted high multiple times in Chicago? Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 skilling has busted high on every event this year Skilling/Alek blend is the best course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Alek nah, I've busted high at least a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Skilling/Alek blend is the best course. So 1.3" it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So 1.3" it is Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Oops sorry, I mean take it to the bank (clock). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Alek nah, I've busted high at least a couple times. Thought it was just that mid Dec "blizzard". Then again busting high is pretty easy when you can be off by just an inch and still be off by a over 100% Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This event is looking more and more like a widespread light snow event, nothing major....and now both the Euro/GFS say get the shovels out Monday morning! What an absolute and utter mess the models are! A while back this, looked like a warm storm, tracking into Michigan. Then, it looked like it was going to be a complicated clipper system tracking from the mid-Plains to Columbus, with snow for Toledo and Cleveland. Now it looks like it will be a clipper that won't concentrate on anybody in the lakes,as the circulation is weak and the snow looks to be weak. Maybe bring 4-6" snow to West Virginia and Virginia. (Cape Cod maybe) Sheesh. The ECMWF is supposed to be more consistent than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So 1.3" it is RPM showed 2.5-3" along the lake. 2.2" for ORD I believe. So 1.3" is right in the middle about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Probably because most people don't really care what happens after the fact, they are much more concerned about the storm itself. I certainly wouldn't call 6" stat padding either. That's not really the reason I called it stat padding. 12" of 20:1 ratio lake effect spread out over 48 hours is nothing like 12" of 12:1 ratio synoptic snow falling in 18 hours. Because LES settles like crazy, you might measure a fresh 3" of new flakey fluff every 12 hours but when you measure the depth on the ground after all is said and done it's really only 8" deep, and then it settles to 6" as soon as the temperature touches 32 the next day. The piles aren't nearly as big and it just doesn't feel like as much snow, because going by actual weight it really isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 RPM showed 2.5-3" along the lake. 2.2" for ORD I believe. What did it have for Milwaukee (not that it matters, it probably has busted all winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What did it have for Milwaukee (not that it matters, it probably has busted all winter). 2.5-3". And I think there was even more near Sheboygan. The higher totals near the lake expanded westward as you went north. So in Chicago it was only 5 miles wide, by the time you get to Milwaukee it was 15 miles or so inland. If frontogensis is better then who knows. This will probably be one of those system that has persistent light snow that accumulates like 1/4" an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 2.5-3". And I think there was even more near Sheboygan. The higher totals near the lake expanded westward as you went north. So in Chicago it was only 5 miles wide, by the time you get to Milwaukee it was 15 miles or so inland. If frontogensis is better then who knows. This will probably be one of those system that has persistent light snow that accumulates like 1/4" an hour. I hope, hopefully the Euro is just late to the party with the light precip like it was with the sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM trending drier again. My call is looking good.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM trending drier again. My call is looking good.- Verifying calls 2-3 days out via the NAM FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Verifying calls 2-3 days out via the NAM FTL. Yeah, really the off-hour NAM is not a good model to hump to prove one's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 2.5-3". And I think there was even more near Sheboygan. The higher totals near the lake expanded westward as you went north. So in Chicago it was only 5 miles wide, by the time you get to Milwaukee it was 15 miles or so inland. If frontogensis is better then who knows. This will probably be one of those system that has persistent light snow that accumulates like 1/4" an hour. This is a rhetorical question but since it changed a ton since just yesterday, why would I trust Skilling's (apparently weenie) RPM? I wish there was one model out there I could feel decently confident in, but that is not the case these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, really the off-hour NAM is not a good model to hump to prove one's point. If the NAM shows a snow hole for Chicago that will be the only time it verifies. If it was calling for an actual event OTOH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 For LES here in Toronto you don't want the sfc reflection to travel as far north as the 18z NAM. That'll keep the winds westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, really the off-hour NAM is not a good model to hump to prove one's point. stop with the off-hour NAM stuff. No model is "off-hour". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 stop with the off-hour NAM stuff. No model is "off-hour". The NAM in general is not very reliable until within 48 hours or so, so the "off-hour" is a small part of the NAM issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 stop with the off-hour NAM stuff. No model is "off-hour". claps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The NAM in general is not very reliable until within 48 hours or so, so the "off-hour" is a small part of the NAM issues. the drying trend has been evident across all models over the last 24 hours or so, it's not just NAM fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Maybe Chistorm...but I think that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Text from Caplan about their microcast...2-6" I-80 north to IL/WI border, highest further north and downwind of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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