wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's one tenth here over 24 hours+...it's a 1" event tops. No, if you look at Wxcaster maps at least, it looks like about .2", you get over .1" in a six hour period alone. http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_ETA_SFC_ACCUMPRECIP_84HR.gif You can see the .2-.3" contour hugging most of the L Michigan shore, so just under .2" QPF I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No, if you look at Wxcaster maps at least, it looks like about .2", you get over .1" in a six hour period alone. 'copter...I was too high. Only .9" at ORD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KORD.txt EDIT: bonus lol @ weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I used to be the same way, but these last 2 winters have changed my tune and I now enjoy the 2" events much more. I guess that's a muted positive of these less than stellar winters of the last year and a half. I suppose if you are, say, more of a severe lover who likes a good snowstorm but not the length and repetition of winter (in fairness I do know several from this area like that)...but if you like winter, how bare ground is better than 2" of snow is beyond me. I remember a discussion several years back during one of the epic late 2000s winters (before everything was subforums) some Great lakes and east coasters got into a bit of a discussion on the subject, several of those ECers insisting the same thing...anything less than 6" is a waste of time. Well, once their jeckyl and hyde winters showed their face, the SAME posters who said this were losing sleep over a potential 1" clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 'copter...I was too high. Only .9" at ORD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KORD.txt EDIT: bonus lol @ weenie maps The snowfall on those NAM text outputs never makes sense. Better going by qpf...which has 0.13" at ORD (0.11", then a break, then 0.02"). Actually, the biggest problem here is analyzing the NAM past 60 hours...it will change 20 times, starting at 3:30 this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 'copter...I was too high. Only .9" at ORD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KORD.txt EDIT: bonus lol @ weenie maps More like .13, but who's counting in an overall pathetic event. It will be a tad more near you closer to the lake and .2" contour. With even 12:1 ratios it would be 1.5, and 15:1 ratios would be close to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 final IMBY call of .4" take it to the bank folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 final IMBY call of .4" take it to the bank folks OK, fly in the face of guidance and assume the worst (though good in the case of futility). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if it was first, but the GFS seems content to make this mostly northern stream influenced for most. Though I recall SSC posting an image of the Euro ensembles touting the same thing. Either way, looks like a widespread very light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 final IMBY call of .4" take it to the bank folks I'll put it in a savings account so interest will bump it up to an inch by the time the storm gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z UK is probably going to nice for someone...probably the eastern portions of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 'copter...I was too high. Only .9" at ORD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KORD.txt EDIT: bonus lol @ weenie maps DId you even read the rest of that link or just read the useless snow output? QPF of .13" isn't going to =.9" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DId you even read the rest of that link or just read the useless snow output? QPF of .13" isn't going to =.9" snow. His place might not drop below freezing...you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 His place might not drop below freezing...you never know. Nah he is going to go outside his place and stomp down all the snow and say, DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DId you even read the rest of that link or just read the useless snow output? QPF of .13" isn't going to =.9" snow. lol stebo...bickering over an additional couple of tenths. This is a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 lol stebo...bickering over an additional couple of tenths. This is a non-event. .8" vs 1.3" even at a 10 to 1, which isn't happening this event. It isn't a non event when some of your futility records go by the wayside as much as you insist on downplaying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 .8" vs 1.3" even at a 10 to 1, which isn't happening this event. It isn't a non event when some of your futility records go by the wayside as much as you insist on downplaying it. This. It'll feel like a big event because we haven't had any. It'll probably lead the Chicago newscasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This event is looking more and more like a widespread light snow event, nothing major....and now both the Euro/GFS say get the shovels out Monday morning! What an absolute and utter mess the models are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't understand people getting excited about high ratios for anything but stat padding. It only takes a single day slightly above freezing to turn 6" of lake effect into 2-3" wet glop. Real snow definitely has more staying power because it isn't just air. So true! Going back through monthly stats for Muskegon over the years, it amazes me how the area has 20s and an 18 inch base for three weeks and then in one day with 30s and rain the total can go down to almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if it was first, but the GFS seems content to make this mostly northern stream influenced for most. Though I recall SSC posting an image of the Euro ensembles touting the same thing. Either way, looks like a widespread very light event. Seems like that's the way its going. But I think the GFS is skimping on the QPF over northern IL because all the models are showing some nice warm advection which should yield decent frontogenesis. This would support the slghtly higher qpf on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Seems like that's the way its going. But I think the GFS is skimping on the QPF over northern IL because all the models are showing some nice warm advection which should yield decent frontogenesis. This would support the slghtly higher qpf on the other models. I would agree with this, what little moisture in the atmosphere should be pretty efficient with decent frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 .8" vs 1.3" even at a 10 to 1, which isn't happening this event. It isn't a non event when some of your futility records go by the wayside as much as you insist on downplaying it. Alek is growing jaded and bitter. poor 'ting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z Euro is taking the northern stream further north, through 66 hours. Needless to say, it's going to look a bit different from the 0z run. Oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GGEM is hitting the LES for NW IN pretty nicely. Nice 5 mm + bullseye for Lake & Porter, which is a pretty good signal from a global model. This is what falls after 12z Friday, by which point the synoptic snowfall should be done with. Hope springs eternal, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty much all northern impulse for the majority of us on the Euro. Still somewhat widespread precip, but pretty light. These models are something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty much all northern impulse for the majority of us on the Euro. Still somewhat widespread precip, but pretty light. These models are something... Maybe we can start narrowing down the T-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 RGEM showing the LES plume drifting west and the system approaches on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Maybe we can start narrowing down the T-5. T-1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 T-1"? 1-2 might be the most realistic at this point unless we see some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 1-2 might be the most realistic at this point unless we see some changes. Yep. No reason to sweat the details right now. Every model run is different, to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yep. No reason to sweat the details right now. Every model run is different, to an extent. The Euro tends not to pick up on these subtle northern wave disturbances that well. It struggled to show anything with the small sleet event that Milwaukee/Chicago had a week and a half ago until we were about 48-72 hours out. Wasn't much of an event, but the Euro went from showing nothing to 0.25"QPF in a couple of runs. In other words, I think it is slightly underdoing precip. 1-2" in general in the region sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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