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January 24-25th Potential Winter Weather Event

dmc76

By dmc76,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted

Out East yes, in the Great Lakes it is a bit easier to get ratios closer to 15:1, higher than that naso much, at least not consistently.

 

I don't understand people getting excited about high ratios for anything but stat padding.  It only takes a single day slightly above freezing to turn 6" of lake effect into 2-3" wet glop.  Real snow definitely has more staying power because it isn't just air.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I don't understand people getting excited about high ratios for anything but stat padding.  It only takes a single day slightly above freezing to turn 6" of lake effect into 2-3" wet glop.  Real snow definitely has more staying power because it isn't just air.

 

Probably because most people don't really care what happens after the fact, they are much more concerned about the storm itself. I  certainly wouldn't call 6" stat padding either.

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

IND AFD is a Novel.

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013





.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TWO SYSTEMS OF INTEREST...THE FIRST
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND AND MORE
IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALOFT TONIGHT AND THIS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY DENSE CANOPY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN SOME HINTS
DEVELOPING ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW OF MOISTENING INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY ENHANCED BY WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY
FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A VERY NICE HANDLE ON ANOTHER PIECE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX POISED TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION AND BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY EARLY
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT DIVING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR
PRESENT OVER THE REGION...THERE ARE GROWING SIGNS THAT THIS FEATURE
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES AS FORCING ALOFT HAS
INCREASED. PRESENCE OF SUBTLE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT IMPACTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE CHOSEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAFAYETTE TO NEW
CASTLE LINE WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED SNOW RATIOS
CLOSER TO 20 TO 1 ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD EASILY SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH IN THESE AREAS OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DISTURBANCE TURN TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ONLY
SLOWLY ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SYSTEM NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHIFT SOUTH
ON THE SYSTEM TRACK CONTINUES WITHIN ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
THE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY
FRIDAY. THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS TO HOLD BACK
THE SECONDARY PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX AS TO WHERE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE HOLDS
OFF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.

STILL SOME NUANCES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS TO BE
WORKED OUT BUT IN GENERAL...THESE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT COLDER TREND
WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO GROW TOWARDS SNOW BEING THE MAIN
IMPACT IN CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE HELD ONTO A CHANCE FOR SLEET TO
ACCOMPANY SNOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS OP GFS AND GGEM
CONTINUE TO BRING 0C 850MB TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS KEEPING ENTIRE
COLUMN SUBFREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION AS IT LOOKS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING ALOFT AND WITH
MODIFYING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE
STORM. WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED ALL THE WAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...HAVE A LOT OF DIFFICULTY SEEING TEMPS MODIFY TO THE DEGREE
THAT THE NAM SUGGESTS. WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE NEAR 15 TO 1
FOR THIS EVENT...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 12 TO 1 IN THE SOUTH IF SLEET
CAN MIX FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...POTENTIAL FOR A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS.

TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAVMOS FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING INTO
THE LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA. GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT THINK IT IS BRINGING WARM AIR
TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN THE ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS. PREFER THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. MODELS HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE
SYSTEM A TAD AND THUS INCREASED THE ALLBLEND POPS IN THE EAST TO
HAVE LIKELY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING. USING THE PREFERRED SOUTHERN
SOLUTION PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE THAT GFS
DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET TO BRIEFLY MIX IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. COULD SEE A BIT OF MEASURABLE
SNOW HOLDING ON IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. BY SATURDAY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SOUTH. WITH WARM ADVECTION
AMPING UP SHOULD SEE PRECIP TYPE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ALL ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES CUT THE ALLBLEND BY A COUPLE DEGREES EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM TO PHASE OUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN LOW
SOLUTION...AND THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCEPTED ALLBLEND FROM SUNDAY ON AS IS WITH
WARM ADVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO AMP UP.

 


 

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

ILN AFD

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO BE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LESS TONIGHT
THAN THEY ARE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE QUITE AS BAD. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH MAY COME CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
SIX MPH WINDS OR GREATER AND WIND CHILL VALUES OF NEGATIVE TEN
DEGREES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE FA
DURING GENERALLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A QUICK HALF INCH TO UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DUE TO PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN MOVING THIS FEATURE INTO
THE AREA INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...MODELS HAVE COME BETTER INTO LINE WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM. DUE TO SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS EVENT. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH. THE ECMWF
WOULD INDICATE MORE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE FA WHILE
THE GFS POSITION OF THE LOW WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. THIS BLEND OF THE TWO KEEPS LOCATIONS NORTH OF
CINCINNATI AS ALL SNOW AND SOUTH OF CINCINNATI HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

 

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

I don't understand people getting excited about high ratios for anything but stat padding.  It only takes a single day slightly above freezing to turn 6" of lake effect into 2-3" wet glop.  Real snow definitely has more staying power because it isn't just air.

 

Although snow is snow to those who simply want to have a wintry look outside, the ratio crap is overplayed.

 

People only tend to bring up ratios when overcompensating for an otherwise "meh" system.

 

And the funny thing is these high ratio events are so uncommon around these parts anyway. People fail to realize ratios is depedent upon snow production aloft versus surface temperatures. If the best lift/moisture is disjointed from the DGZ, then you can stil have poor snow ratios.

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

Although snow is snow to those who simply want to have a wintry look outside, the ratio crap is overplayed.

 

People only tend to bring up ratios when overcompensating for an otherwise "meh" system.

 

And the funny thing is these high ratio events are so uncommon around these parts anyway. People fail to realize ratios is depedent upon snow production aloft versus surface temperatures. If the best lift/moisture is disjointed from the DGZ, then you can stil have poor snow ratios.

 

Never thought of the dynamics of the snow producing cloud like this before. It make sence how it plays such a key roll in the formation of the flake. Better to say the 2m temperatures are only one piece of the equasion for snow ratios. So, what is the best ratio ever recorded in this region ?? 

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

I always laugh when I hear someone say that....anyone would prefer 6" over 2", but I dont know of many snowlovers who would rather have nothing than 2".

 

I used to be the same way, but these last 2 winters have changed my tune and I now enjoy the 2" events much more.  I guess that's a muted positive of these less than stellar winters of the last year and a half.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Probably because most people don't really care what happens after the fact, they are much more concerned about the storm itself. I  certainly wouldn't call 6" stat padding either.

I know I don't get it. I love how everything is "stat-padding" now, a term that was coined here last year in reference to snows that melt quickly (and it was coined by those who don't care for snowcover anyway :lol:). Fluffy snow that settles is stat-padding.....snow that melts quickly is stat-padding (which apparently means nearly all east-coast snow is stat-padding)....nickel/dime snow is stat-padding. I joked that I guess our late-December snow was stat-minimizing because it stayed on the ground for a long time with hardly any new snow falling.

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