DAFF Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Due to the cold nature of the event a 2" snow should be at the bottom of the scale. Snow ratios wil be high (dtw) for our region. Would not be suprised to see some 5"++ totals. I'll have a Tim's double double with a splash of Baileys, since everyones thirsty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Due to the cold nature of the event a 2" snow should be at the bottom of the scale. Snow ratios wil be high (dtw) for our region. Would not be suprised to see some 5"++ totals. I'll have a Tim's double double with a splash of Baileys, since everyones thirsty.... Pixie flake size can cause lower ratios. I mean, it would be plowable snow for sure because it is so cold, but say you get 0.20" of liquid....if it comes in the form of pixie flakes, you are plowing 2" of sugar, if its big or decent flake size, you have 3-5" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't see anything drastically different on the 0z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Remember about 5 days ago...many were so sure this would be a torchy rainstorm following the arctic cold. Who said that? Posting model runs doesn't necessarily mean it is what the person thinks will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 wrt ratios: Anything higher than, say, 12:1, is pretty hard to sustain, from my experience. I've seen people mention that if it's too cold, flake size decreases, which is true. Also, a decent amount of wind can break the dendrites, and you end up with ratios that are much lower than expected. I always assume 10:1, and allow myself to be surprised by anything better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With respect to the above (UK), what a cluster. Pieces of energy giving these models fits. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With respect to the above (UK), what a cluster. Pieces of energy giving these models fits. Stay tuned. We might have to ride your T-5" call for the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We might have to ride your T-5" call for the next day or two. Seriously. The run-to-run range of solutions has been somewhat fascinating. Granted it's not a major event or anything, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 wrt ratios: Anything higher than, say, 12:1, is pretty hard to sustain, from my experience. I've seen people mention that if it's too cold, flake size decreases, which is true. Also, a decent amount of wind can break the dendrites, and you end up with ratios that are much lower than expected. I always assume 10:1, and allow myself to be surprised by anything better. Out East yes, in the Great Lakes it is a bit easier to get ratios closer to 15:1, higher than that naso much, at least not consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Who said that? Posting model runs doesn't necessarily mean it is what the person thinks will happen. I was being facetious, no one actually forecasted what would happen. Just funny as this timeframe has been on the radar for at least a week now, and some are sometimes apt to buy an unfavorable solution in lala land (the mantra, "if it looks good it wont happen, if it looks bad it will") when in this case the models have done a complete about face in less than 5-days. It literally went from looking like a torch/rain to cold/light snow scenario. From Jan 17th "lol @ the rain storm late next week. even fresh on the heels of serious cold we warm right back up. I should have seen this coming." "Not at all shocked to see this type of incoming cold end with rain....it's not retreating north, it's exiting stage right which means sw winds slam the door on it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Out East yes, in the Great Lakes it is a bit easier to get ratios closer to 15:1, higher than that naso much, at least not consistently. What's the difference in region? Is it just that we don't have as cold air aloft on the east coast? Or a thinner DGZ? (I'm not grilling btw, I'm seriously curious.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From Jan 17th "lol @ the rain storm late next week. even fresh on the heels of serious cold we warm right back up. I should have seen this coming." "Not at all shocked to see this type of incoming cold end with rain....it's not retreating north, it's exiting stage right which means sw winds slam the door on it" Let me guess... Alek quote #1 and buckeye quote #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What's the difference in region? Is it just that we don't have as cold air aloft on the east coast? Or a thinner DGZ? (I'm not grilling btw, I'm seriously curious.) Both of those are factors, plus it normally isn't that cool out East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Regarding ratios....I have read before that climo for this area is 13:1. This of course is an average for the season, which takes into account the wetter snows, so 15-20:1 snow ratios are quite common, and for lake belts, 40:1 is certainly not unheard of. This season we have not really had any wet snows...and its actually very easy to calculate my water and snow because no events have been mix events (just some rain to snow events where I could separate the rain and snow water). Nov 23: 0.1" - 0.02" (5:1) Nov 25: 0.3" - 0.01" (30:1) Dec 21: 1.2" - 0.08" (15:1) Dec 24: 0.9" - 0.07" (13:1) Dec 26/27: 6.3" - 0.44" (14:1) Dec 29: 2.7" - 0.20" (14:1) Dec 30: 0.3" - T (N/A) Jan 6/7: 0.6" - 0.03" (20:1) Jan 21: 1.3" - 0.05" (26:1) Total: 13.1" - 0.90" (14.5:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z GEFS mean at 84 and 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Let me guess... Alek quote #1 and buckeye quote #2. you are good! I wasnt trying to troll anyone btw, just answering hoosiers question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 you are good! I wasnt trying to troll anyone btw, just answering hoosiers question. I know, I wasn't either. Just know my Lakes/OV posters like the back of my hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z GEFS mean at 84 and 96 hours. Hot mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hot mess Sorta. But I think the GFS and its ensembles are trying to make this into an old fashioned clipper. If it's right, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Sorta. But I think the GFS and its ensembles are trying to make this into an old fashioned clipper. If it's right, who knows... Quite possible, which is why there are more questions than answers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Due to the cold nature of the event a 2" snow should be at the bottom of the scale. Snow ratios wil be high (dtw) for our region. Would not be suprised to see some 5"++ totals. I'll have a Tim's double double with a splash of Baileys, since everyones thirsty.... What do you think for Toronto? Maybe 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Quite possible, which is why there are more questions than answers now. Yep, I have no idea. There's been a myriad of solutions, but most have led to LAF getting about 2" or so. So I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yep, I have no idea. There's been a myriad of solutions, but most have led to LAF getting about 2" or so. So I guess we'll see. Yeah I am looking at the bottom line here too, the method to the madness of this system is too much to micro analyze, as long as I get something I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah I am looking at the bottom line here too, the method to the madness of this system is too much to micro analyze, as long as I get something I am happy. For real. Euro up next to close out the night. And I've had enough to drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro is a bit different. Throws precip back further west, though light amounts. Looks like a merger further east. A little for everyone, but not a lot at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z Euro is a little better, precip gets further north overall. It develops some snow in eastern IA late Thursday night and better precip fills in by Friday morning up to near Chicago while the southern sfc low is near Nashville lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro is a bit different. Throws precip back further west, though light amounts. Looks like a merger further east. A little for everyone, but not a lot at the same time. IKK gets .16" LAF with .20" You're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 IKK gets .16" LAF with .20" You're golden. Euro has like the most widespread 1-2" ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 IKK gets .16" LAF with .20" You're golden. Dayton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.