snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 At this early stage do the Parameters look good for lake effect? Normally with a low travelling so far south the winds would have too much of a northerly component to get us (better for Burlington, Hamilton, etc). However, the models are hinting at bagginess in the isobars across the lakes which gives me the impression that winds could maintain a 090 flow for at least a few hours. 850s are for sure going to be cold enough. Everything else I haven't checked and with LES pinning down details this early is useless. But we know there's at least potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The Gfs/Bufkit shows 5" for Indy, 7" for CMH and Cincy a combo ending as 3" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The Gfs/Bufkit shows 5" for Indy, 7" for CMH and Cincy a combo ending as 3" of snow... Anyone have qpf numbers from 12z Euro? I know it took a big shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anyone have qpf numbers from 12z Euro? I know it took a big shift south. 0.20" for CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 0.20" for CMH thank you very much. So with ratios that would be like 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z NAM pretty far north and stronger. 1008mb low south of Indy. Good snows across northeast IL. Really warm too. 850mb 0 deg isotherm gets up to I-80 in IL. Still 48hrs until the wave is fully onshore in the pac NW so I'm sure the models will continue to shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z NAM keeps breaking off a piece of the PV and phasing it with the southern wave, producing a further north sfc low track. GFS does likewise, but later, which keeps the storm track further south. EURO is like the GFS, but with a more disjointed partial phase, keeping the storm even more sheared out and suppressed. Phasing. As usual, it's all about phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Death sentence= long range NAM weenieing YBY with 2" of snow, and the regionwide bullseye being about 4-6" at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro Ensemble mean is kinda weird at 96. Main sfc low is down in the TN Valley but it has a "secondary" center over eastern IA with significant isobar bagginess to the NW. I'm guessing this is either a result of a significant number of the individual members focusing in on the northern stream wave, or a significant number of individual members having an earlier phase and producing a NAM like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Well, I've gone from 8" of snow to all rain to every combo in between several times over. I'm done worrying about it. Que sera... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 we're getting into that 96 hr timeframe.... I doubt we see any radical shifts on the euro moving forward. Usual wobbles in track and strength but concensus is pretty good for a weak storm thru the southern OV/ northern Tenn V. heading east. I'd put my money on a high end advisory or low end warning event for the i-70 corridor from IN east thru OH and the midatlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro Ensemble mean is kinda weird at 96. Main sfc low is down in the TN Valley but it has a "secondary" center over eastern IA with significant isobar bagginess to the NW. I'm guessing this is either a result of a significant number of the individual members focusing in on the northern stream wave, or a significant number of individual members having an earlier phase and producing a NAM like solution. From what I heard over at the NE forum, EC ENS QPF is farther north than the OP which means more northerly solutions ala the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 we're getting into that 96 hr timeframe.... I doubt we see any radical shifts on the euro moving forward. Usual wobbles in track and strength but concensus is pretty good for a weak storm thru the southern OV/ northern Tenn V. heading east. I'd put my money on a high end advisory or low end warning event for the i-70 corridor from IN east thru OH and the midatlantic. With that clipper-like looking system coming down from the NW, a phase is still not out of the question. Still think we are in for a few more days of model mayhem. Hopefully in the end we can at least get a region-wide snowcover back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z Nam has 3 inches at ORD per bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z will be north it looks like EDIT: maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z will be north it looks like That inverted sfc trough hanging back towards the western lakes is such an awesome LES signal. That would keep the winds from backing too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z GFS with several inches in northeast IL. So NAM/GFS/GEM all have a few inches in this area with the Euro pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z GFS with 2 inches or so in northeast IL. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IND is not committing to anything yet. lol THERE COULD BE A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THISSYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like most forecast offices are not talking up ratios yet which I think could beef up snow totals some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like most forecast offices are not talking up ratios yet which I think could beef up snow totals some. Meh, get a track down first then worry about ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Not a ton of spread. Biggest thing I notice is that a couple are a solid 24 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What Skilling showed tonight on air for snowfall. It is through the 10 day period, but most of that falls by Sunday. Showed a general 4-6" over NE IL and SE WI. He likes the idea of LEhS/LES as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 skilling is such a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 skilling is such a weenie Early congrats on the 7.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Lol. I'm pretty sure that was the RPM model output. My forecast is up to 50% of snow now for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Lol. I'm pretty sure that was the RPM model output. My forecast is up to 50% of snow now for this system. Yeah, I'm pretty sure he doesn't control the RPM model besides giving it the needed conditions and input to create a run. If he does, then it explains why it tends to be bullish at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I know this isn't the "DT/JB" thread, but this has to do with this potential storm. Last night in his video, DT said he saw similarities to the January 22, 2005 storm when a clipper combined with a southern low. That storm gave Toronto 4" of snow, with the temperature hovering around 0F. Do any of the mets here believe a similar set-up is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Local met posted an evening update...still likes 4-6" for LAF. Thinks ratios will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Local met posted an evening update...still likes 4-6" for LAF. Thinks ratios will be good. Shoot for the stars Chad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.