A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 You realize I'm satirizing? I did and I think Tim did as well. There is room for everyone on Debbie Downer Lane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Model continuity not the greatest with this storm. Looks like the 12z GFS is going to partially recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is back at it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Model continuity not the greatest with this storm. Looks like the 12z GFS is going to partially recover. Yeah it took a small step back, still having phasing/stream dominance issues though. Plus it is completely being cheap on the moisture, however I'd take whatever small gain we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah it took a small step back, still having phasing/stream dominance issues though. Plus it is completely being cheap on the moisture, however I'd take whatever small gain we got. Good news is we still got plenty of time for improvements.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah it took a small step back, still having phasing/stream dominance issues though. Plus it is completely being cheap on the moisture, however I'd take whatever small gain we got. looks to be cold during the event, though, so wouldn't that make for good snow ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 looks to be cold during the event, though, so wouldn't that make for good snow ratios? Yes but you still need moisture to get snow, it just won't take a whole lot to get a good amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Some of the COLDEST events you can actually see 10:1 ratios if the flake size is small. Regardless, I will be in Frankemuth Saturday for the SnowFest but mby is still my top priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 From what I can tell it looks like the new GEM would be nice for Indiana into Ohio. Southern low deepens from Arkansas to Kentucky, and then into West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Some of the COLDEST events you can actually see 10:1 ratios if the flake size is small. Regardless, I will be in Frankemuth Saturday for the SnowFest but mby is still my top priority. Yea. Below about 25 degrees surface temperature isn't as important as crystal structure. When the entire atmospheric column is below 25 degrees, the location of the dendrite growth zone relative to the vertical ascent is what determines ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Gladly will take the few inches here the GFS is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 From what I can tell it looks like the new GEM would be nice for Indiana into Ohio. Southern low deepens from Arkansas to Kentucky, and then into West Virginia. It's been fairly consistent painting 0.30-0.50"-ish for LAF. Gonna have to ride it til the bitter end. And for kicks, 12z LOLgaps is close to a rainer for LAF. Probably 5-6" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's been fairly consistent painting 0.30-0.50"-ish for LAF. Gonna have to ride it til the bitter end. And for kicks, 12z LOLgaps is close to a rainer for LAF. Probably 5-6" for ORD. I think it's a good sign that even the NAM isn't flipping us over to plain rain (though comes close). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's been fairly consistent painting 0.30-0.50"-ish for LAF. Gonna have to ride it til the bitter end. And for kicks, 12z LOLgaps is close to a rainer for LAF. Probably 5-6" for ORD. Yeah the northern half of IN, much of Ohio and southern MI look pretty good to me taking in an average of all the guidance. I'm thinking an inch or two or so for the QC for an early guess. Hopefully the lake adds to whatever Chicago gets, as some of the models have advertised. I'm thinking 1-3 for an early guess for Chitown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think it's a good sign that even the NAM isn't flipping us over to plain rain (though comes close). Those 850 temps are scorching. At this point, I'd be very surprised if LAF sees 34º and rain. Might want to save this post though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Those 850 temps are scorching. At this point, I'd be very surprised if LAF sees 34º and rain. Might want to save this post though. The thing is, worst case scenario with a temp poking just above freezing could still have some icy issues since we'll be coming off of a cold airmass. I'm with you...plain rain not really a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro continues to be weak and south. Nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Certainly not the storm of the winter, but probably good for a relatively widespread couple of inches, meaning like 1" to maybe 2"...getting better as you head east in the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro continues to be weak and south. Nothing here. Still showing the LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Clearly I'm reaching here, but the 12z FIM is the lolz for LAF. Probably on the order of 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Haven't really looked into the details but prima facie it's a good LES (off Ontario) setup on Friday for YYZ. So even if the synoptic snow whiffs we have a plan B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wow, I have got to follow things more closely... had no clue at all of a system coming in.... thanks a lot helping move parents plus school starting back up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Those 850 temps are scorching. At this point, I'd be very surprised if LAF sees 34º and rain. Might want to save this post though. congrats for jinxing yourself now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This will be a good litmus test of the Euro's ability (or inability) to pick up on smaller impulses. The Euro is showing no precip north of Midway, while almost all of the other models are showing light precip at least in much of Wisconsin and Northern Illinois tied to what looks like a northern stream clipper system. Who will win out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 @ work and can only navigate a few non-work related websites. Can anybody describe to me the 12z UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If winds are northeasterly off the lake, that'll help Chicago to Sheboygan get in on the game as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 @ work and can only navigate a few non-work related websites. Can anybody describe to me the 12z UKIE? 96 and 120 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Haven't really looked into the details but prima facie it's a good LES (off Ontario) setup on Friday for YYZ. So even if the synoptic snow whiffs we have a plan B. At this early stage do the Parameters look good for lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We do have time for models to change, which they will. I am concerned about zr potential with shallow cold air still entrenched for LAF on ne up my way if the southern solution fails to pan out. We are getting into the time of year climo wise when I begin to watch for zr. And I did not get any appreciable LES as originally anticipated here in Michiana with more westerly winds so what did fall was mainly n of the MI state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 96 and 120 hour maps. 1:21 12z UK 96.gif 1:21 12z UK 120 hours.gif Thanks. Trends not my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.