tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm sorry not trying to be rude, he did say half inch. Which would be .5? I would think my SV maps would show that half inch of snow, so .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS shows .04-.06 qpf = half inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS shows .04-.06 qpf = half inch of snow. I'm sorry. I thought you meant that in the form of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That event gave Chester County PA - 2.2" of snow You were almost exactly right...the 9th...this looks like it... edit...definitely it....KNEL reported 5 inches... METAR KNEL 091228Z 29005KT 3SM -SHSN SCT020 OVC030 02/01 A2973 RMK SLP068 T00210008 METAR KNEL 091255Z 29006KT 4SM -SHSN BR SCT020 OVC030 02/01 A2973 RMK SLP068 T00170007 METAR KNEL 091355Z 31006KT 5/8SM SHSN BR OVC010 01/01 A2976 RMK SLP079 T00140006 METAR KNEL 091655Z 32006KT 1SM -SHSN BR OVC005 01/01 A2980 RMK SLP091 T00080006 LSR// BA POOR METAR KNEL 091755Z 33007KT 1SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC008 01/01 A2980 RMK SLP091 6008/ 4/005 8/5// T00130012 LSR// BA http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us1209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 the euro is either dry or less than .05 for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 the euro is either dry or less than .05 for the clipper. I think as dry as it is, the apps could chew up whatever moisture comes from the clipper. It seems that the wetter models come off the low off the coast throwing back precip. That's what we need to bank on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SREF remains the most robust guidance with 0.1 - 0.25 qpf accross area on 15z. 18z NAM has backed-off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 SREF remains the most robust guidance with 0.1 - 0.25 qpf accross area on 15z. 18z NAM has backed-off a bit. once in their range i think you will see them back off some. This looks like a lot of coatings to an inch maybe a lucky spot to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 once in their range i think you will see them back off some. This looks like a lot of coatings to an inch maybe a lucky spot to 2 inches. Wouldn't be surprised they are not getting any support from other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam has a nice 1-2 snow for most. ! However it all relies on the formation of a coastal low. This one could easily be a period of snow showers and flurries Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice write up by my holly. Going 0.5-1 of snow mainly from Ttn-new Brunswick. Tossing the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The best part about this snowfall is it can be removed via a small leafblower. Friday/Saturday, on the otherhand, may take one of those ones w/ a jet pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 kinda like the flizzard to 1...I think north of city gets a shot at an inch...rest of us may flizzard on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nam and 03z srefs are nice.. quick dusting to an inch posibly. (city proper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This one is convective, I bet there are TT(s) on the nam over 50. So a few (but not most) are going to do better. Looks like there is alot of love for Monmouth County so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This one is convective, I bet there are TT(s) on the nam over 50. So a few (but not most) are going to do better. Looks like there is alot of love for Monmouth County so far. yawn.... wouldn't be surprised if areas that get under that inverted trough feature see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This one is convective, I bet there are TT(s) on the nam over 50. So a few (but not most) are going to do better. Looks like there is alot of love for Monmouth County so far. awww and we love you guys too! Hahaha thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 An interesting thing I'm noticing is the nice MPV anomalies showing up on the SREF guidance in the low-mid levels. A decent convective signal is showing up as this passes through. It could bring a quick covering to the area between 00z-06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 An interesting thing I'm noticing is the nice MPV anomalies showing up on the SREF guidance in the low-mid levels. A decent convective signal is showing up as this passes through. It could bring a quick covering to the area between 00z-06z. i take it that's for areas more TTN north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 i take it that's for areas more TTN north? Sure looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i take it that's for areas more TTN north? It looks like it will take on a convective / summertime line of thunderstorms type of look. So even though the window is brief and the snow squalls won't last long south of TTN, they could be particularly intense. I think a lot of people are going to enjoy these things tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Of this mornings models, SREF/NAM/Ukie look most robust and would give 1-3" near phl with good ratios, Euro is least robust maybe a dusting/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 An interesting thing I'm noticing is the nice MPV anomalies showing up on the SREF guidance in the low-mid levels. A decent convective signal is showing up as this passes through. It could bring a quick covering to the area between 00z-06z. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=12ℑ=nam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_sim_reflectivity.gif. NAM sim radar shows it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Well it is silly to try to guess what an areal averaged accumulation will be when we are dealing with something like this. Issues like temperatures could become a problem with a faster arrival of the squalls for example. But anyway, MPV in a favorable jet / gradient means that a low is going to take shape and give quite the rotation on the radar as the system leaves. This is why model QPF increases as you head into NE NJ / NYC, where frontogenesis help and vorticity may keep snow bands going. The other issue will be who gets into the heavier bursts and who misses...just like in the summer. So, keep expectations low and just hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam/sref pretty dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Are there going to temp issues upstairs with tomorrow's "event"? Here is my local NWS forecast and it indicates some rain may fall. M.L.King Day: Rain and snow showers likely before 4pm, then snow showers. High near 28. West wind around 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Are there going to temp issues upstairs with tomorrow's "event"? Here is my local NWS forecast and it indicates some rain may fall. M.L.King Day: Rain and snow showers likely before 4pm, then snow showers. High near 28. West wind around 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Reading CTP's AFD says they are worried about the surface. Might just be a mis-gridded p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Latest Wxsim still shows near an inch of snow around "rush hour" tomorrow for NW Chesco....but this will be hit and miss snow squalls in all liklihood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 00z NAM is a disaster. Good start to the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 00z NAM is a disaster. Good start to the evening. .01-.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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