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Clipper Threat 1/21/13-1/22/13


AlexD

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The srefs drop snow in about -8 to -12 850's, so this will be pure fluff, broom swept snow removal if anything falls.

someone could get enhancement from an inverted trough feature shown on the nam and srefs quite nicely.. right now, somewhere around NYC could be the target..... something to keep an eye on as they are very tough to pin point location.

(for the amatuers, to look for an norlun/inverted trough, you look for a lag in the isobars that make this look "<") hope this helps.

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The srefs drop snow in about -8 to -12 850's, so this will be pure fluff, broom swept snow removal if anything falls.

someone could get enhancement from an inverted trough feature shown on the nam and srefs quite nicely.. right now, somewhere around NYC could be the target..... something to keep an eye on as they are very tough to pin point location.

(for the amatuers, to look for an norlun/inverted trough, you look for a lag in the isobars that make this look "<") hope this helps.

 

the euro ens mean looks the best in my eyes, with the low going off delmarva. Not sure what precip it throws out though. I still favor sne for best amounts with the emerging coastal and inverted trof

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The srefs drop snow in about -8 to -12 850's, so this will be pure fluff, broom swept snow removal if anything falls.

someone could get enhancement from an inverted trough feature shown on the nam and srefs quite nicely.. right now, somewhere around NYC could be the target..... something to keep an eye on as they are very tough to pin point location.

(for the amatuers, to look for an norlun/inverted trough, you look for a lag in the isobars that make this look "<") hope this helps.

the euro ens mean looks the best in my eyes, with the low going off delmarva. Not sure what precip it throws out though. I still favor sne for best amounts with the emerging coastal and inverted trof

I'd have to agree the further N you head, the better probs of getting ocean enhancement off the norlurn(spell check?) feature...

here's 63hr skew T of PHL. precipitable water value of .26, so minus evap cooling, .10 of an inch looks decent on the NAM here, maybe slightly more.

napa8a5a.jpg

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Does anyone remember what that inverted trof that impacted NJ in the later 90s was?  I know there was an event during the morning hours that hit Monmouth/Ocean counties once and want to say maybe 1996-1999 but cannot find it.

 

It was December, 1996, not sure of the exact date but somewhere around the 10th or so.

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It was December, 1996, not sure of the exact date but somewhere around the 10th or so.

You were almost exactly right...the 9th...this looks like it...

 

 

edit...definitely  it....KNEL reported 5 inches...

 

METAR KNEL 091228Z 29005KT 3SM -SHSN SCT020 OVC030 02/01 A2973 RMK SLP068 T00210008

METAR KNEL 091255Z 29006KT 4SM -SHSN BR SCT020 OVC030 02/01 A2973 RMK SLP068 T00170007

METAR KNEL 091355Z 31006KT 5/8SM SHSN BR OVC010 01/01 A2976 RMK SLP079 T00140006

METAR KNEL 091655Z 32006KT 1SM -SHSN BR OVC005 01/01 A2980 RMK SLP091 T00080006 LSR// BA POOR

METAR KNEL 091755Z 33007KT 1SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC008 01/01 A2980 RMK SLP091 6008/ 4/005 8/5// T00130012 LSR// BA

 

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us1209.php

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You were almost exactly right...the 9th...this looks like it...

 

 

edit...definitely  it....KNEL reported 5 inches...

 

METAR KNEL 091228Z 29005KT 3SM -SHSN SCT020 OVC030 02/01 A2973 RMK SLP068 T00210008

METAR KNEL 091255Z 29006KT 4SM -SHSN BR SCT020 OVC030 02/01 A2973 RMK SLP068 T00170007

METAR KNEL 091355Z 31006KT 5/8SM SHSN BR OVC010 01/01 A2976 RMK SLP079 T00140006

METAR KNEL 091655Z 32006KT 1SM -SHSN BR OVC005 01/01 A2980 RMK SLP091 T00080006 LSR// BA POOR

METAR KNEL 091755Z 33007KT 1SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC008 01/01 A2980 RMK SLP091 6008/ 4/005 8/5// T00130012 LSR// BA

 

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us1209.php

 

Yup, bitter memory of that one....just flurries/light snow at BLM, missed it by about 15 miles

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