mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 gfs says nyet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 gfs says nyet I'd like to say I'd trust the NAM for this, but its hard. GFS has lower res and this event will be hard to pick out the small batch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'd like to say I'd trust the NAM for this, but its hard. GFS has lower res and this event will be hard to pick out the small batch of snow.Definitely lean toward the NAM. This is more like a summer line of storms line than a synoptic winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Definitely lean toward the NAM. This is more like a summer line of storms line than a synoptic winter storm. Got a shot at 20* temp drop in 12 hours which can kick off some squallies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NAM over .1, maybe over .15 at BWI, its 330 and I'm busy with some things but I'd say part of it is squall related, part is enhancement from the deepening of the clipper. If the vort track ends up just a bit more favorable, we could climb up to .2-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam seems to be holding steady with some moisture Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 4km nest NAM and WRF-NMM for tomorrow evening Another interesting thing to watch will be the temps Tuesday. The NAM/GFS have us staying in the low 20s for afternoon highs. The Euro is upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 LWX still really likes the idea of squalls and/or an area of light snow with the front tomorrow. Hopefully, we'll get at least a good dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Approx high temp forecasts for Sun/Mon: Albany 37/19 Boston 46/29 Chicago 19/09 Dallas 66/49 Des Moines 20/11 Fargo -04/-12 Harrisburg 42/29 Hartford 42/27 KC 38/23 MKE 16/06 Minneapolis 07/-07 OK City 56/39 Portland, Me. 42/23 STL 36/20 Montreal 35/-02 Toronto 24/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 NAM a little drier out here....didn't check for you guys to east...pretty typical for west to east systems in the shadow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 WTF is up with this wind. My house sounds like it's being blown apart. These gusts are every bit as bad as Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 WTF is up with this wind. My house sounds like it's being blown apart. These gusts are every bit as bad as Sandy. Hummm - interesting. Nearly dead calm here in Vienna. 50 F and really nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Approx high temp forecasts for Sun/Mon: Albany 37/19 Boston 46/29 Chicago 19/09 Dallas 66/49 Des Moines 20/11 Fargo -04/-12 Harrisburg 42/29 Hartford 42/27 KC 38/23 MKE 16/06 Minneapolis 07/-07 OK City 56/39 Portland, Me. 42/23 STL 36/20 Montreal 35/-02 Toronto 24/11 My temp is already higher than forecast today....50 now 47 was forecast.....40 for tomorrow...add about 5 degrees to any high temps this week I bet...someone should start a contest asking if DCA has a high below 32 this week. My guess is no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 My temp is already higher than forecast today....50 now 47 was forecast.....40 for tomorrow...add about 5 degrees to any high temps this week I bet...someone should start a contest asking if DCA has a high below 32 this week. My guess is no Yea dave, we've ran either too high on cold shots or too low during the heat ie last weeks supposed torch ruined by fog and rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 My temp is already higher than forecast today....50 now 47 was forecast.....40 for tomorrow...add about 5 degrees to any high temps this week I bet...someone should start a contest asking if DCA has a high below 32 this week. My guess is no Yeah, funny how we now call a benign week of near normal temps a "cold shot." It will soon be a very rare occurrence when DCA gets below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah, funny how we now call a benign week of near normal temps a "cold shot." It will soon be a very rare occurrence when DCA gets below freezing.Precisely phin, and the GW monguls can rear their heads all they want, it might be real maybe not. I call it climate change, patterns change, upper air connections, that sort of thing. Climo is just being altered by a long term climate change, somewheres probably getting colder in correspondence with our warmer changes. Or its a cycle, but that debate is for another thread. As for this front, the temps will only be so impressive in complaince with the fact that the metro folks are simply not acquainted with good cold in the past few years, and really in the past decades. Cold like 85 and 94 is anamolous regardless of climo stats, but a chilly winter with AOB temps shouldn't be too much to ask for. Now I find the only time we get really cold is through a SSW and not all of those produce. This front will be "relatively" impressive because we're acclimating to the warmer temps, but nothing like what you've experienced or mitch/wes/bob have in the past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wind ripping here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 54 about 7 degrees over forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 54 about 7 degrees over forecast Mentioned in the over thread but I figured it was worth mentioning here too - temps often bust high ahead of strong fronts. This is especially the case with the stronger fronts. I still think the cold performs. Maybe not in an "extreme" fashion but we should still be pretty cold this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 58 fun loving degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 55° at 2:00pm Sunday. I recall driving from Annapolis to Columbia during an Arctic frontal passage (it seems like) about 10 yrs ago . It was in the 50s during the day. Front came thru w/rain around 6:00pm with a bit of lightning/thunder, but precip turned fairly quick to snow as I was passing thru the BWI region. Heavy non-stop snow for about 5 hrs left about 4" or 5" IMBY in Columbia. Lesser amounts down toward BWI as I recall. By midnite it was clear and pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's interesting, pulling back on the wunderground wundermap so you can see temps from here to Wisconsin, you can clearly see the two fronts - 60 in DC, 30s in WV and wPA, teens in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Right on cue, just like that, the NAM completely eliminates the snow showers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Right on cue, just like that, the NAM completely eliminates the snow showers tomorrow. I just want to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It was absolutely ripping wind around 1:30 PM. I was slowed walking into it. Calmed a bit now. Expect another round as the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Had a dramatic temperature rise here this morning with strong southwesterly winds. Jumped 15 degrees in an hour and peaked at 53. Winds turned to the WNW around noon, and its dropped back to 46 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 down to 38.4 here in WV after earlier high of 46.9... peak wind gust here of 26 but constant winds all day. Interesting the ground still frozen this afternoon even in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Front is through. NNW wind and temps,are dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MN Transplant needs to find us a radar that works for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 MN Transplant needs to find us a radar that works for tomorrow. NAM RH at 700mb? I'm desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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