Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 not surprising looks like the models are now going with the +NAO keeping things moving and zipping right along causing nothing really to get locked in most likely leaving us with a 2-4" or perhaps 3-6" event... the NAO holds the key to a bigger storm ... At least we are not so positive with the NAO that we are going west of the Philadelphia area. Keep the faith I think we are bouncing around but looks to me it is snow or no I-295 Wilmington points N and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z gfs through 69 hours looks more like the 0z gfs than 6z gfs. weaker with thurs pm clipper . guessing this wont be like the 6z gfs suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS not as enthused with the Wednesday clipper. Should be well north of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks good so far. Still a little strong with N end of trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 that clipper on Wednesday needs to stay north otherwise the 6z GFS would be the result a drier storm on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This 12z gfs run looks like the low would move ene from its position at 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Low in S plains is more like 00z. than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hey Bri looking at 500... this does look like it is going to shoot more east...I think we can safely say that Cleveland and Syracuse are out... Thanks Tombo because that was his thinking a few days ago the PV acts like the block... just can't block too much or suppression depression but I don't think that will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 102, mod precip into the entire are. looks a little north of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks good at hour 96 for a 3-6" type of event perhaps 4-8"+ if Atlantic gets involved.....if you extrapolate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 the h5 field, there's a little more emphasis in how strong that northern vort is in the trough.. 0z was weaker all around, the 12z a little stronger on the N side of the trough. very close p=type for mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 duh... it is further north and rain snow line is straddling I-295 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks good at 102. Low in WV will probably jump SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yea Bri... straddling Mason Dixon line for sure very uncomfortable to watch southern Chester, and Delaware County for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 105 to 108, the 850 line makes a brief appearance in the very extreme se corner of pa..... 925's are cold enough throughout though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Oh Doggy... wow that rain snow line just did not want to go any further northwest than the Delaware River... thank god you know this will change ... but it is a nice hit basically the Delaware River points north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Most of the precip is over before the 850s warm to zero. 6" near phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Haha Bri yea those people down there south or along the Comm Barry Bridge will be able to see the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 SV maps has 4-8 for Se pa to lehgih valley... 2-4 everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 34 and rain. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 For Philly remember most of the precip has fallen before the freezing line comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 34 and rain. What a winter. Keep it positive fella. Still 5 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z GFS had stronger phasing in northern portion of trough than 00z. This results in a little stronger storm but also a shift N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 whens the last time philly got a 4-8" storm? seems like it was either 12"+ (how spoiled) or .5" of snow by .10" an inch of ice. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This will be snow or no - this will be a front end thump and end as some -ZR For Philly remember most of the precip has fallen before the freezing line comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 whens the last time philly got a 4-8" storm? seems like it was either 12"+ (how spoiled) or .5" of snow by .10" an inch of ice. lol yeah this is more like our typical storm a good medium-sized warm advection thump and then drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Also continues the pattern of 12z warm and 00z cold. However differences are narrowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z ens look pretty darn good.. very 0z/12z gfs'ish like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Not a bad run north of the PA/MD line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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