SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Ggem is still north Uk has gone south http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif The GEM's timing is way early with the system, not sure whats up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 0z GEFS look nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 the differences between the 0z gfs (left) and 12z GFS (right) @ 18z thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 That UKMET track, cant see precip, but that would be ideal for us IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 so far the euro is following along with the gfs in holding the pv in longer. Though, the northern stream energy diving down is a little stronger than the gfs, but not as strong as the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wunderground says 9" Thursday night for Allentown lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 euro way south of 12z run... looks like 18z gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 108 lgt snow starting to move into region, everyone is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 114 mod to hvy snow over the whole region .25-.5 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 beauty.. a little faster with the shortwave... but no where near as ampd as the 12z euro.. it actually looks colder than the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 hr 120 another .05-.1 from paul to scranton on east... .1-.25 from sw del corner phl to dyl to dingmens ferry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 tom, any BL issues down here? Sounds like a great run region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 quick hitting 3-6" type event here.. -4 to -8c 850's for SE pa, -8 + lehigh valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Tombo if u could, what are the start times and end time looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 fri 12z on the western burbs to sat 0z precip is ending eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Thanks irishbri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 tom, any BL issues down here? Sounds like a great run region-wide. yea your surface gets a little to warm, but you probably get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 nogaps fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NOGAPS looks a bit warm for a "win"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 FWIW the 6z GFS is ramping up the Wednesday night clipper -- 1-2" type swath across DE. This results in a more southerly, modest event for Friday which is light snow for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 DGEX says merry late chrismas to SEPA. That yellow is 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 FWIW the 6z GFS is ramping up the Wednesday night clipper -- 1-2" type swath across DE. This results in a more southerly, modest event for Friday which is light snow for most of us. Probably a bad run. The NAM which was strong with the wed clipper at 00z was much weaker at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It looks like the current closed low associated with the Wed (now stronger) clipper moved into better sampling with the 00z run and all the models trended south. I'll take a leap of faith (oh no ) and say that the colder air staying in longer east will win. This leaves the last unknown how much western amplification occurs behind the Friday low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Probably a bad run. The NAM which was strong with the wed clipper at 00z was much weaker at 06z You missed the point. Wednesday's "clipper" and its associated 500 mb vort will lay the pavement for Friday. If Wednesday's system is weak, Friday's system may nudge farther north since there's little reinforcing dig with the clipper and the associated vort. What's critical here is the strength of this system, how much dig it generates behind the wave. You want a stronger...but not too strong...system on Wednesday if everyone's going to cash in. If this wave is too weak and relaxed, then you have to worry about some of those bad runs where it's rain south of I-80. If it's too strong, like Wednesday's clipper...then you have a suppression scenario at hand. It isn't about the shift between runs so much as what ultimately happens...and understanding that if X happens, Y is the result. You want Wednesday's system to have a bit of dig to it but not too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Is it possible for that Wednesday clipper to blow up next to the coast and deliver some goods or is the pattern too progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Is it possible for that Wednesday clipper to blow up next to the coast and deliver some goods or is the pattern too progressive? you can never say its impossible, but i would favor it not happening without a good -nao to block it from zooming on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Is it possible for that Wednesday clipper to blow up next to the coast and deliver some goods or is the pattern too progressive? +NAO = progressive....thus why the Friday system is a relatively minor threat as well . . . 2-4/3-6 type system, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 ou missed the point. Wednesday's "clipper" and its associated 500 mb vort will lay the pavement for Friday. If Wednesday's system is weak, Friday's system may nudge farther north since there's little reinforcing dig with the clipper and the associated vort. What's critical here is the strength of this system, how much dig it generates behind the wave. You want a stronger...but not too strong...system on Wednesday if everyone's going to cash in. If this wave is too weak and relaxed, then you have to worry about some of those bad runs where it's rain south of I-80. If it's too strong, like Wednesday's clipper...then you have a suppression scenario at hand. 012113-COLD.jpg It isn't about the shift between runs so much as what ultimately happens...and understanding that if X happens, Y is the result. You want Wednesday's system to have a bit of dig to it but not too much... I understood the point however until we see other models have the clipper too strong am not too concerned. There were other aspects of the 06z run that were problematic. It kept the northern end of the trough stronger which lead to a weak low in S Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM looks like it would be warm and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z GFS was fairly weak. It trended stronger with the pre event clipper mid week, reinforcing the confluence. Fine line to walk here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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