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1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

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Wxsim with 6z data has around 1.0" of snow tomorrow evening and then for Friday - Snow arriving around 3am Friday becoming heavy pretty quickly with it tapering to a wintry mix before ending - Total Snow accumulation for NW Chesco 9" to 11" (should be all over by around 1pm

 

06 GFS is good run for all of SE Pa next friday except a small area near phl

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The last day or so. The 12z GFS run has been warm for this storm, the 00z cold and the 06z in between

 

It sure feels that the GFS sounding runs are following the directionality of the previous ECMWF runs with this one. The timing of this run is ugly too southeast of I78, most of the "liquid" precip occurring Thursday night, not good.

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It sure feels that the GFS sounding runs are following the directionality of the previous ECMWF runs with this one. The timing of this run is ugly too southeast of I78, most of the "liquid" precip occurring Thursday night, not good.

 Yeah that would probably end up pretty icy

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Maybe its :weenie: on my part,  but it seems hard to believe that this arctic air mass is going to get shoved aside that easily.  Oh I was told to get off the board yesterday and come to work early today, so I better go before Mitch yells at me...

 

HA...well I always point out that 1/3/99 event to people when they bring that one up, I think the 850s were -25C at 6am with lows in the single digits and it was 34 and raining by midnight...this storm won't be quite as amplified as that was but it seems that can remarkably happen.

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To the worriers...we have two disturbances upstream (Monday and Wednesday) that will define the reality of Friday.  The trend on the "warm" runs seems to be cooling slightly (hence the ice north of the city instead of just rain) while the "cold" runs have been nudging slightly warmer along the coast.

 

I think it's not surprising to see the model waffling between 0z and 12z with each model...if the Euro continues this flip-flop and shows snow it's par for the course.

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12z GFS fits the pattern of this winter. Still it wouldn't take much to make this a better solution.

 

 

We may be better off tossing this first storm and hoping for some sort of northern stream takeover where the first wave just blasts way north to Buffalo, this would not force the trof off the East Coast but position it just right so that he southern stream wave could redevelop and come up the coast...you get greedy and just hope for the front end snow change to rain with the 2 systems phasing and you lose any shot at perhaps something coming up the coast behind it.

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HA...well I always point out that 1/3/99 event to people when they bring that one up, I think the 850s were -25C at 6am with lows in the single digits and it was 34 and raining by midnight...this storm won't be quite as amplified as that was but it seems that can remarkably happen.

 

 

I seem to recall a few storms like that back in the late 80's/early 90's that were similar. Surface temps in the upper singles to low teens at the onset of precipitation. If I remember correctly, one of those storms had freezing rain/drizzle that started when the temp was in the low 20's.

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slower and a bit stronger on this one...euro slow bias at work?

 

need this to really come on in Thursday night or very early Friday for a good snow for most everyone.

i didnt think that bias would come into play, as the shortwave doesn't come out of the SW US?

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