chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A little stronger cold air damming would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wxsim with 6z data has around 1.0" of snow tomorrow evening and then for Friday - Snow arriving around 3am Friday becoming heavy pretty quickly with it tapering to a wintry mix before ending - Total Snow accumulation for NW Chesco 9" to 11" (should be all over by around 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Wxsim with 6z data has around 1.0" of snow tomorrow evening and then for Friday - Snow arriving around 3am Friday becoming heavy pretty quickly with it tapering to a wintry mix before ending - Total Snow accumulation for NW Chesco 9" to 11" (should be all over by around 1pm 06 GFS is good run for all of SE Pa next friday except a small area near phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 not liking the trend so far on the 12z gfs with pulling the pv out faster compared to 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GFS is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Only a Miller B could save this run for I95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The last day or so. The 12z GFS run has been warm for this storm, the 00z cold and the 06z in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 A good amt of ice in the ptw-ukt territory. Never gets above freezing for extreme nw montco and bucks co on north and west after some front end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 First part of storm looks good from roughly I-78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The last day or so. The 12z GFS run has been warm for this storm, the 00z cold and the 06z in between It sure feels that the GFS sounding runs are following the directionality of the previous ECMWF runs with this one. The timing of this run is ugly too southeast of I78, most of the "liquid" precip occurring Thursday night, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Second part stays offshore. Track is similar to last nights Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It sure feels that the GFS sounding runs are following the directionality of the previous ECMWF runs with this one. The timing of this run is ugly too southeast of I78, most of the "liquid" precip occurring Thursday night, not good. Yeah that would probably end up pretty icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Maybe its on my part, but it seems hard to believe that this arctic air mass is going to get shoved aside that easily. Oh I was told to get off the board yesterday and come to work early today, so I better go before Mitch yells at me... Tony's looking forward to driving to Wendy's for lunch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Agree with the above we still have a ways to go with this. Faster timing may help us as well for snow and/or increase the ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Maybe its on my part, but it seems hard to believe that this arctic air mass is going to get shoved aside that easily. Oh I was told to get off the board yesterday and come to work early today, so I better go before Mitch yells at me... HA...well I always point out that 1/3/99 event to people when they bring that one up, I think the 850s were -25C at 6am with lows in the single digits and it was 34 and raining by midnight...this storm won't be quite as amplified as that was but it seems that can remarkably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 To the worriers...we have two disturbances upstream (Monday and Wednesday) that will define the reality of Friday. The trend on the "warm" runs seems to be cooling slightly (hence the ice north of the city instead of just rain) while the "cold" runs have been nudging slightly warmer along the coast. I think it's not surprising to see the model waffling between 0z and 12z with each model...if the Euro continues this flip-flop and shows snow it's par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GFS fits the pattern of this winter. Still it wouldn't take much to make this a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 12z GFS fits the pattern of this winter. Still it wouldn't take much to make this a better solution. We may be better off tossing this first storm and hoping for some sort of northern stream takeover where the first wave just blasts way north to Buffalo, this would not force the trof off the East Coast but position it just right so that he southern stream wave could redevelop and come up the coast...you get greedy and just hope for the front end snow change to rain with the 2 systems phasing and you lose any shot at perhaps something coming up the coast behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 HA...well I always point out that 1/3/99 event to people when they bring that one up, I think the 850s were -25C at 6am with lows in the single digits and it was 34 and raining by midnight...this storm won't be quite as amplified as that was but it seems that can remarkably happen. I seem to recall a few storms like that back in the late 80's/early 90's that were similar. Surface temps in the upper singles to low teens at the onset of precipitation. If I remember correctly, one of those storms had freezing rain/drizzle that started when the temp was in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 its snow or bust for me ... i'll go craazy// GGEM is N&W of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 so far through hr 90 euro is holding onto the pv better than the gfs, also isn't digging the northern stream as much, though that could just be timing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 12 GEFs look like they;re leaning towards the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 534 h5 height @ 12z v 546 @ 0z hour 96 at philly.. little colder out ahead.. would argue for a more south than 0z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This run is definitely slower that the gfs and the 0z euro, so that isn't good, allows more time for the pv to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 slower and a bit stronger on this one...euro slow bias at work? need this to really come on in Thursday night or very early Friday for a good snow for most everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 hr 120 it took the ggem route, sitting the low right over cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 looks like the 12z gfs/ canadian maybe some front end thump @ hour 120 for SE PA.. interior is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 slower and a bit stronger on this one...euro slow bias at work? need this to really come on in Thursday night or very early Friday for a good snow for most everyone. i didnt think that bias would come into play, as the shortwave doesn't come out of the SW US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 well, that stinks.... 1000mb low over syracuse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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