NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z gfs is a little colder pre-storm. Reinforcing clipper a little stronger P-type issues as the mid levels warm-147-150-153 for I-95 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like a glorifies Fropa on the 18z gfs. Coastal doesn't take over till north of us. Looks like the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 +NAO allowing the flow to be progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Main low cuts through PA and causes changeover in SE Pa. A little colder and further SE than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like a glorifies Fropa on the 18z gfs. Coastal doesn't take over till north of us. Looks like the 0z euro. The 18z gfs was better than 12z, trended colder. People need to realize this isn't going to be a massive coastal. Its going to be a low moving west to east. The 2 storm idea on the gfs in my eyes is bogus. I thinks its one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 The 18z gfs was better than 12z, trended colder. People need to realize this isn't going to be a massive coastal. Its going to be a low moving east to west. The 2 storm idea on the gfs in my eyes is bogus. I thinks its one or the other. East to west!!??? Omg!! Haha jk. There's a lot going on. I'm not sure what to think other than potential is there. There will be a coastal, it just depends what latitude it wants to get going at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Much better front end than 12z. No back-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Fwiw 18z dgex has 2 events.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f144.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hey Tombo, I totally agree with you. I also disapprove of the two storm idea....shown by the GFS... East to west storm heads to Delmarva then would bomb out in route to New England.... Precip type issues may still be a problem especially near the city and points south and east due to water temps being above normal 44-48 ... this is January 19th right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 If we can get the NAO to be say -.5 we would be in business is that too much to ask....... probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 If we can get the NAO to be say -.5 we would be in business is that too much to ask....... probably. you don't need a -nao per se for this. That pv is acting as your block. If that is in the right position, no way will a storm cut into it, but rather go under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Water temp not really an issue - AC water temp now at 43 - only an issue for coastal areas Hey Tombo, I totally agree with you. I also disapprove of the two storm idea....shown by the GFS... East to west storm heads to Delmarva then would bomb out in route to New England.... Precip type issues may still be a problem especially near the city and points south and east due to water temps being above normal 44-48 ... this is January 19th right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Water temp not really an issue - AC water temp now at 43 - only an issue for coastal areas Myabe not for your location but an east wind off the ocean, with a temp of 43 will do damage to a lot of areas. If it was in the mid 30s maybe not. It all depends on the wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 gfs going towards euro solution. Well south of its 18z track with a stronger pv up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 gfs going towards euro solution. Well south of its 18z track with a stronger pv up north. Thermal fields through 129 similar. All snow event. Disturbance Wednesday helps keep the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 solid run on the gfs, .25-.5 for everyone 95 south .5-.75...though extreme southern jerz has temp issues... temps in the low to mid 20s from pa turnpike north, ratios would make up for lesser qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like a 4-8 or 5-10" system Tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I hate to be "that guy" but I'm not at home and can't see. What is the precip type for my backyard? Thank you in advance to those that reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I hate to be "that guy" but I'm not at home and can't see. What is the precip type for my backyard? Thank you in advance to those that reply. It's close to all snow but the bl gets very questionable after a modest dump in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 0z euro looks like the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah it's really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 the 6z GFS has the low straddling just south of 40N... south central PA/SE PA would be very borderline on precip types based on that track. looking at the 0z GEFS IND, they're all over the place. Some are super amp'd /North, some are south with nothing, and a few are decent hits. The mean really isn't helping here. lol. 0z euro take the SLP from the KY/IN/IL border to AC.... going off the 24 hr increment map of Allans site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I really hope the southern solution wins. After days of way below freezing temps I have to start wondering how warm it has to get for the rain to not freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ok it so happens this is the navy nogaps, but it shows the example of different clustering and that the ensemble mean is sometimes one of the least likely forecast tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ok it so happens this is the navy nogaps, but it shows the example of different clustering and that the ensemble mean is sometimes one of the least likely forecast tracks. Looking at 06 GEF, there is group that looks like 00/06 OP runs, there is a group with main low passing well to the NW and there are a couple suppressed that develop a coastal offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Here is the 00 Euro ensemble. Starting to get better clustering. Center is a touch south of OP run and not far from 06 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The Freezing rain threat appears to be increasing on this one for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This will be a long week of model roulette watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This will be a long week of model roulette watching Maybe its on my part, but it seems hard to believe that this arctic air mass is going to get shoved aside that easily. Oh I was told to get off the board yesterday and come to work early today, so I better go before Mitch yells at me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Maybe its on my part, but it seems hard to believe that this arctic air mass is going to get shoved aside that easily. Oh I was told to get off the board yesterday and come to work early today, so I better go before Mitch yells at me... I agree tony, i think you will see the models shift south at some point. Maybe a track through roa to cape may. I could see if the models were developing this low sub 1000mb, but the low is rather weak just is hard to imagine it gets that much latitude. Though i can see it happening if that pv is further north and east and the energy on the back side associated with the northerns stream digs a good bit raising hgts in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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