tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 still a ton of spread in the gefs obviously. If you were to take the mean its plenty cold enough for all snow/frozen, though one could argue the ens mean is usually always colder. I wonder if in future runs we see less trending from the northern stream and more energy in the southern storm? Basically, take the northern stream storm run that towards us but weakening as it comes east. Then the diving south of that northern branch links up with that southern stream energy, and that 2nd low is the real main player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Good call on the reinforcing clipper, not as strong on 12z. still a ton of spread in the gefs obviously. If you were to take the mean its plenty cold enough for all snow/frozen, though one could argue the ens mean is usually always colder. I wonder if in future runs we see less trending from the northern stream and more energy in the southern storm? Basically, take the northern stream storm run that towards us but weakening as it comes east. Then the diving south of that northern branch links up with that southern stream energy, and that 2nd low is the real main player. I think the clustering of the individual members one northwest, other suppressed and southeast make the ensemble average look "good". Separating the clusters into two camps the average track of both are not that great. Six, seven days away so really nothing is off the table anyway. We were just having a discussion that a super operational model blend approach may do us more accuracy than these poorer resolution ensemble members. A couple of points you have already made, the pv has to linger. The faster the system comes in, the better. Have to watch the ridging out west as much as the pv retreating. The ensemble trend with the nao is for it to remain about where it is, but the pna to become more positive. So there is a combination in there, you want the pv to retreat somewhat and the ridge to get pumped to increase the wavelength, but not to the point where it can go into the lakes and you don't want a pv to be so strong and belligerent and the ridging muted so that it whips the low through the carolinas and make DT happy. Like you said, there have not been too many cases where cold air will be in place at the start, so it might all fall apart like a house of cards, but its the best chance we have had this met winter so far.... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 the euro is looking pretty different than 0z. It has the northern stream storm a lot weaker and is putting more emphasis on the southern stream so far. Completely different than the 12z gfs. The hgt lines are also further south on the euro with more influnce from the pv. Though im not sure if in later runs the backside northern energy teams up with the southern stream and creates a big storm that cuts or what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 hr 138 sub 1012 low in tenneseee, this is not cutting north massive pv over great lakes...850 line down to nc precip now entering western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 hr 144 1012 low over knoxville. snow breaking out for nj, northern del, and pa... 850s still way down in north carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 hr 150 sub 1012 low over raliegh nc... lgt to mod precip over entire area .1-.25... mod precip .25-.5 from ilg south, snow for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 hr 144 1012 low over knoxville. snow breaking out for nj, northern del, and pa... 850s still way down in north carolina So this is looking like one storm and not two as the GFS showed? Interesting. What a fun week ahead of us...finally... Always apprecaite the pbp Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 should say hr 150 has .1 from nw chester co, ptw to abe on west... with .05-.1 for everyone from dover north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro is cold leading into storm. Has the reinforcing clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 hr 156 another .05-.1 from lns to rdg to stroudsburg... then .1 from northeast md, wayne, pa, dyl, white plains. .25-.5 along nj and del coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 storm is out of here hr 162 qpf totals .25-.5 for everyone... .5-.75 from 295 in nj and del canal bridge south and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 lol, should also add from northern del and 295 west and north, for those worried about the lighter qpf. It has temps below 20 degrees, 850s -8 by phl and north of pa tpk below -12. So definitely some high ratios if that would to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 EURO seems to bring down some stronger confluence/cold air...There is no 2nd storm developing on the front on the EURO, but that's fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 also should note, if the euro is right, phl would have their coldest low temp possibly since 04? gets to low single numbers. With lehigh valley, pocs and lanc county west and north below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Good call. Much rather have it a little SE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 also should note, if the euro is right, phl would have their coldest low temp possibly since 04? gets to low single numbers. With lehigh valley, pocs and lanc county west and north below zero That post storm or during? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 EURO seems to bring down some stronger confluence/cold air...There is no 2nd storm developing on the front on the EURO, but that's fine though. That's because it dampens out the northern stream energy. The gfs was 2 systems it had the northern stream which is what went way west, then the trailor was the southern stream. The euro dampens out the northern stream due to the confluence and then focuses on the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That post storm or during? post...while its snowing its in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Thanks for the pbp Tombo! I think I can speak for many on this sub-forum in saying that your pbp is one of the things most missed from the winter of '09-'10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Perfect! I love you Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The Euro has tended to have a man crush on cutters ever since the upgrade...its usually a very good sign when it loses them in the Day 4-6 range and its been generally suppressing this now the last 48 hours...the way this winter has gone I wouldn't bet on it but I'd feel better it isnt up near the GEM and NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 no problem guys, i like the look of this setup. As long as the pv is modelled just above the lakes, that will act as a -nao blocking the low from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 6-8" as modeled. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro is cold leading into storm. Has the reinforcing clipper. You might have to retract my good call. This may be the key to how its going to transpire. Have to follow that short wave, looks like it spins westward from the pv and its between Greenland and Canada at initialization time. This Euro run basically is in the southern clustering of the gefs members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 post...while its snowing its in the upper teens. upper teens and snowing? its probably been a while since that happened at phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 upper teens and snowing? its probably been a while since that happened at phl Nearly 3 years, 1/30/2010. 2.1" of snow with temps in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 storm is out of here hr 162 qpf totals .25-.5 for everyone... .5-.75 from 295 in nj and del canal bridge south and east.. I can't believe I am asking this, but what about right along 295? I am literally almost right along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I can't believe I am asking this, but what about right along 295? I am literally almost right along it. .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 euro ens looks pretty good, though their is a pretty good range in possibilities. The mean would be a nice event in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z gfs is a little colder pre-storm. Reinforcing clipper a little stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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