tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the meso models are right, cause the rgem has the same. The screw zone may be lessened for this area do to the coastal forming off nc/va coast instead of nj. Nam has .15-.2 for the region as well as the 6z rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ilg? ill do a run down in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 phl .17 ilg .16 ptw .17 ukt .16 pne .17 dyl .17 nxx .17 ged .17 dov .16 lom .17 abe .14 mpo .11 lns .17 rdg .18 acy .14 miv .15 ttn .16 eko .2 conshy 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the meso models are right, cause the rgem has the same. The screw zone may be lessened for this area do to the coastal forming off nc/va coast instead of nj. Nam has .15-.2 for the region as well as the 6z rgem. Yes, at this point, the later the better for secondary redevelopment. The flow obviously won't allow for something closer to the coast so we might as well hope for a later/weaker transfer. Let's see how the GFS goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 phl .17 ilg .16 ptw .17 ukt .16 pne .17 dyl .17 nxx .17 ged .17 dov .16 lom .17 abe .14 mpo .11 lns .17 rdg .18 acy .14 miv .15 ttn .16 eko .2 conshy 1.6 Score one for Conshokhocken!!!! 1.6 with 15:1 ratios!!!!!!! 2 footer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 conshy 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 That's it I'm packing up and moving to Conshokhoken!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 The conshy 1.6 was a conversion error. He measured Your's not in Qpf, but FLAKES* Anyhow, still sticking with my coating-2" For most the area except Delmarva. Although, according to the mid-ATL people, Some places in MD got up 4-4" from that clipper last night. High ratios wildcard? (Also, posting from my iPhone, but in the regular skin/theme. Posting issues Seem to only affect the mobile skin and tap-a-talk. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Where is the global superjet to help?!?! I just love weakening front-running vort maxes in a semi-progressive flow. If we could get any type of fronto forcing in the mid levels, we would have no problem pulling off an advisory event. I haven't checked the soundings on the new GFS but it's almost like, "why bother?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS continues to be flatter with sytem than NAM. GFS starts out stronger with trough in NW but ends up weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Where is the global superjet to help?!?! I just love weakening front-running vort maxes in a semi-progressive flow. If we could get any type of fronto forcing in the mid levels, we would have no problem pulling off an advisory event. I haven't checked the soundings on the new GFS but it's almost like, "why bother?" Yeah Its a shame to waste that 850 temp gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Where is the global superjet to help?!?! I just love weakening front-running vort maxes in a semi-progressive flow. If we could get any type of fronto forcing in the mid levels, we would have no problem pulling off an advisory event. I haven't checked the soundings on the new GFS but it's almost like, "why bother?" Isn't this still going to be advisory-level for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Isn't this still going to be advisory-level for some? The HWO from early this morning mentioned that totals look to be in the 2-3" range, so that should generate a WWA for us unless their thinking/guidance changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 phl .17 ilg .16 ptw .17 ukt .16 pne .17 dyl .17 nxx .17 ged .17 dov .16 lom .17 abe .14 mpo .11 lns .17 rdg .18 acy .14 miv .15 ttn .16 eko .2 conshy 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z euro brought up qpf compared to 0z, everyone over .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The HWO from early this morning mentioned that totals look to be in the 2-3" range, so that should generate a WWA for us unless their thinking/guidance changes... Possibly...advisory fatigue....timing, if its slow enough to only be on back end of evening commute...well advertised event already, so not like a later issuance catches anyone by surprise...avoid issuing only to retract in case models go last minute totally dry/all snirga....or it just to make weenies more grateful if one is issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 No change to my guess for TTN from yesterday, 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 No change to my guess for TTN from yesterday, 1-3". could you post the 12z euro qpf when you get a chance Mr Martin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z euro brought up qpf compared to 0z, everyone over .1 I don't think if you'd showed 10 mets just the 500mb and 850 mb progs for tomorrow evening that you'd get many less than one inch forecasts (south). On the other hand I know one of the guys who would go close to a 10:1 ratio for domani. He is big on strong winds fracturing the snow crystals in dendritic growth zones and there will be plenty wind aloft tomorrow. But if this ends up being a 1-3" event, I dont know if there is enough there to support or disprove the thoughts. Its easier to fluff when the accums are light. -----------> (I did order a Captain Obvious tee shirt.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 could you post the 12z euro qpf when you get a chance Mr Martin AVP: 0.11 MPO: 0.11 ABE: 0.12 EWR: 0.10 RDG: 0.15 TTN: 0.12 MDT: 0.15 PHL: 0.14 ILG: 0.15 BWI: 0.11 ACY: 0.15 GED: 0.12 SBY: 0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 AVP: 0.11 MPO: 0.11 ABE: 0.12 EWR: 0.10 RDG: 0.15 TTN: 0.12 MDT: 0.15 PHL: 0.14 ILG: 0.15 BWI: 0.11 ACY: 0.15 GED: 0.12 SBY: 0.13 Pretty uniform. No big stickouts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z euro brought up qpf compared to 0z, everyone over .1 How about Monday's minor event yesterday's euro was showing? Still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 How about Monday's minor event yesterday's euro was showing? Still there? It's mehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How about Monday's minor event yesterday's euro was showing? Still there? Yea snow to ice esp burbs for ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea snow to ice esp burbs for ice Epic ice or run-of-the-mill glazing? And is there support from any other model? Sorry, at work. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 343 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-102-104- 106-250900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.130125T2100Z-130126T0600Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- 343 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY 3 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING, IT SHOULD BE SNOWING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS...GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY. THE START TIME OF THE SNOW SHOULD AFFECT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. WHILE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS, FALLING SNOW AND TIMING SHOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. DRIVE AT A SLOWER SPEED AND USE EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY WHEN TRAVELING ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY TEND TO BECOME EVEN MORE SLIPPERY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Epic ice or run-of-the-mill glazing? And is there support from any other model? Sorry, at work. Thanks. around a tenth or so...best shot per euro is mmu-dyl-ptw on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 C-1" above 195 in NJ, 1-3" south of a AC-Dover line, 1-2 everywhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 C-1" above 195 in NJ, 1-3" south of a AC-Dover line, 1-2 everywhere else? Yeah, looks like the depiction on the models shows dry air trying to wedge southwestward from New England. Maybe lowest numbers from ABE/TTN on northeast with 1-2 most other places. I think a shore location south of ACY could squeeze out 3" if all the planets align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At 15/18z the GFS+SREF increased a little while the NAM decreased. Mt Holly's call looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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