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1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

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with this north trend would that tend to screw us or help us out snow wise?

It's better to go off the gfs and euro. The nam has been horrible of late. This run is basically just going towards the others. But in reality you want that northern stream energy to dig further south and the ridge out west to rise.

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Doesn't the NAM usually go overboard with QPF right before a storm tho?

 

Most models are usually too high, this is a classic event where they can be too high, a quick developing surface low that moves fast, sometimes you'll lose alot of QPF in the short range inside 24 hours as we often see...this NAM though is showing reasonable amounts to me, if it starts tossing out 0.50s tomorrow with no substantial NW track shift then I'd be wary.

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Most models are usually too high, this is a classic event where they can be too high, a quick developing surface low that moves fast, sometimes you'll lose alot of QPF in the short range inside 24 hours as we often see...this NAM though is showing reasonable amounts to me, if it starts tossing out 0.50s tomorrow with no substantial NW track shift then I'd be wary.

 

would like to see the other models bounce up to, which would give more credit to the nam's numbers.

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