SmokeEater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ugh, we lost the JMA. Good, means game on now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Good, means game on now, lol. that's what I was thinking, thanks for saying it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 FIFY -- grab a beer and enjoy it...his AFD's are solid reading. Tomorrow it's a doubleheader Gaines and Gorse ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Tomorrow it's a doubleheader Gaines and Gorse ! Woohoo!! Now I know who I've been reading all these years Got the beer chilling and looking forward to a "good read". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The G's, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM coming in, nothing really different so far to think there would be any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM coming in, nothing really different so far to think there would be any changes. the thing i have noticed so far that's a little different is the ridge out west is a little stronger causing the northern stream to dig ever so more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 the thing i have noticed so far that's a little different is the ridge out west is a little stronger causing the northern stream to dig ever so more. True. It's definitely pumping the ridge a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This baby's coming north it was already way south of all the guidance so it makes sense it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 it was already way south of all the guidance so it makes sense it would. with this north trend would that tend to screw us or help us out snow wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 the nam is definitely digging that northern stream better, but that could be it finally realizing how bad its previous runs were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 with this north trend would that tend to screw us or help us out snow wise? Help. We don't want it surpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 with this north trend would that tend to screw us or help us out snow wise? It's better to go off the gfs and euro. The nam has been horrible of late. This run is basically just going towards the others. But in reality you want that northern stream energy to dig further south and the ridge out west to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Will be a good run for DT land it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's better to go off the gfs and euro. The nam has been horrible of late. This run is basically just going towards the others. But in reality you want that northern stream energy to dig further south and the ridge out west to rise. so then we are looking better then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 so then we are looking better then. its just trending towards the gfs, thats all. It was so far away from the globals it was scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 its just trending towards the gfs, thats all. It was so far away from the globals it was scary. The GFS was not bad for us 2-4 inch event right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The GFS was not bad for us 2-4 inch event right? it was like .1-.12 qpf more like 1-2, since we would probably lose some to virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not a bad run of the NAM. Went from the driest guidance to the wettest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 hr 54 best run in 24-36 hours for the nam for this event no biggie, but lots of .1 - .25 from I-195 south in NJ and well into PA west of Philly .25+ just offshore can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Precip totals NAM: MIV: 0.21" ACY: 0.23" PHL: 0.16" WWD: 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Doesn't the NAM usually go overboard with QPF right before a storm tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 700mb temps are in the -12 to -16 range, probably a 15-20:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 700mb temps are in the -12 to -16 range, probably a 15-20:1 ratio. Thats good and being .16 could be 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Precip totals NAM: MIV: 0.21" ACY: 0.23" PHL: 0.16" that is a nice bump up, if we didn't get much virga philly could push 3 with that...also have to see what other models show cause the nam does have a wet bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Doesn't the NAM usually go overboard with QPF right before a storm tho? Most models are usually too high, this is a classic event where they can be too high, a quick developing surface low that moves fast, sometimes you'll lose alot of QPF in the short range inside 24 hours as we often see...this NAM though is showing reasonable amounts to me, if it starts tossing out 0.50s tomorrow with no substantial NW track shift then I'd be wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Most models are usually too high, this is a classic event where they can be too high, a quick developing surface low that moves fast, sometimes you'll lose alot of QPF in the short range inside 24 hours as we often see...this NAM though is showing reasonable amounts to me, if it starts tossing out 0.50s tomorrow with no substantial NW track shift then I'd be wary. would like to see the other models bounce up to, which would give more credit to the nam's numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does anyone have nam QPF for GED, or know where I can find it online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does anyone have nam QPF for GED, or know where I can find it online? 0.27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0.27" ILG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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