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1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

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I still think this is a rather disorganized event. The best isentropic lift ( best chance for overrunning precip) is in the tn valley and the northern piece is staying over the great lakes. I'm skeptical of the higher qpf's with the new guidance. Main glaring reason is the mos output for RH is only near 40-45% at 18z Friday with a very dry sounding. We saw with the great virga event of 2013 that 50-55% did not get most precip.  A lot of what limited moisture is around will have to go toward saturation. However the surface and air temps in the 20's will create a nice fluff factor. Ratios of 15:1 on the 12z GFS for those wondering. 

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I still think this is a rather disorganized event. The best isentropic lift ( best chance for overrunning precip) is in the tn valley and the northern piece is staying over the great lakes. I'm skeptical of the higher qpf's with the new guidance. Main glaring reason is the mos output for RH is only near 40-45% at 18z Friday with a very dry sounding. We saw with the great virga event of 2013 that 50-55% did not get most precip.  A lot of what limited moisture is around will have to go toward saturation. However the surface and air temps in the 20's will create a nice fluff factor. Ratios of 15:1 on the 12z GFS for those wondering. 

:lol:

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I still think this is a rather disorganized event. The best isentropic lift ( best chance for overrunning precip) is in the tn valley and the northern piece is staying over the great lakes. I'm skeptical of the higher qpf's with the new guidance. Main glaring reason is the mos output for RH is only near 40-45% at 18z Friday with a very dry sounding. We saw with the great virga event of 2013 that 50-55% did not get most precip.  A lot of what limited moisture is around will have to go toward saturation. However the surface and air temps in the 20's will create a nice fluff factor. Ratios of 15:1 on the 12z GFS for those wondering. 

Don't the models take the virga into consideration? Your analysis is great though, and probably very realistic on what may happen.

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Hello all. Just trying to get a better handle on this. The start time has been pushed back several times with this event. Are we now looking at later afternoon start on Friday? Is duration short quick hitter type? Thanks and really enjoy reading this forum.

yea if we get the precip it would be friday afternoon till about midnight...a 6 hr shot.

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