Voyager Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I know it's the 6z GFS and it's 180 some hours out, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That Wednesday night disturbance, if it's reality, will probably help Friday out since it's a reinforcer... I have low confidence about that one because it popped up first on an 18z run. Regardless for the first time in a long long long time, cold air in place, no need to hope for October 1987 type dynamic cooling or the fastest deepening post cold frontal secondary on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Now a thing we need to look at is the neutral to +NAO... this could do one of three things: 1. a track further northeast too close (not really thinking west at this time but the way this winter has gone)to the Philadelphia area for our friends in South Jersey, Delaware and also the immediate Philadelphia area. 2. warmer air in off the Atlantic from the Ridge out in the Atlantic. 3. The two pieces of energy remain separate until it is too late the storm blows up just ene of ACY pounding New England instead I think this may be the more realistic outcome. What does it mean for Philadelphia... well thinking snow to sleet and freezing rain ... with sleet and freezing rain dominating... then back to snow as the storm pulls away not getting into totals due to precip issues. I am looking beyond the models and into the pattern we have had and perhaps going into. The warm air is just poised not too far away to our south and east. South Jersey and Delaware well certainly precip issues We shall see what happens anything over 100 hours especially this year I don't get too excited before but this is the thing to remember right now...WE DO HAVE COLDER AIR COMING AND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...SO WINTERY WEATHER IN SOME FORM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY I-95 NORTH AND WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I have low confidence about that one because it popped up first on an 18z run. Regardless for the first time in a long long long time, cold air in place, no need to hope for October 1987 type dynamic cooling or the fastest deepening post cold frontal secondary on record. Not seeing this disturbance anymore thus the somewhat warmer solutions overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That Wednesday night disturbance, if it's reality, will probably help Friday out since it's a reinforcer... That it did on the GFS. EC didn't have this and it shows precip type issues philly and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This could be the thread of the year, well only 3 weeks in to it. Cold air will continue after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Nice shift south on Euro Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here's kphl on 06 GFS. 50/50 snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 reallly concerend this doesnt dig past our lat...if so, we;ll have precip issues and have to worry about dry slots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 reallly concerend this doesnt dig past our lat...if so, we;ll have precip issues and have to worry about dry slots.. I'm not that concerned solely because its 7 days away, and it will continue to change. The fact the euro ens shifted south is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm not that concerned solely because its 7 days away, and it will continue to change. The fact the euro ens shifted south is a good sign. i guess im just snake bitten. wish i could post a snap shot of the SV snow maps for this system.... weenies would go crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 i guess im just snake bitten. wish i could post a snap shot of the SV snow maps for this system.... weenies would go crazy its probably wise not to because it will send people in a frenzy for a storm a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 6z gfs 1.15" for abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 its probably wise not to because it will send people in a frenzy for a storm a week away.on 2nd thought, that sounds like fun for you! hmmmthat 2" comment needs a payback!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 1 week away roller coaster model ride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 gfs run is going to be warmer than 12z. The low is pretty amplified and the pv is not as firmly entrenched. Screams more ice with a 1028 plus high over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Tom...my bet is it will show the classic GFS suppressed solution at 3 days before...... gfs run is going to be warmer than 12z. The low is pretty amplified and the pv is not as firmly entrenched. Screams more ice storm with a 1028 plus high over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS has another low developing along the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 gfs run is going to be warmer than 12z. The low is pretty amplified and the pv is not as firmly entrenched. Screams more ice with a 1028 plus high over the lakes. Yup cuts up through Ohio RV .Forming second low in the SE that might clip us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS cuts it well west Quick ice/snow to rain. NY/New England on this run for snow. Arctic air pretty quick to yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS cuts it well west Quick ice/snow to rain. NY/New England on this run for snow. Arctic air pretty quick to yield. That's the primiary it does show a secondary along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Would that secondary low be some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Secondary clips us. Nice hit in Jersey edit: Quite a bit of rain for Jersey. An inch or two at end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 the gfs tries to do some magic on with the trough, after we get our rain as the primary low cuts to our west into upstate PA... yawn... would have been nice, but the kicker sw crashing into the west coast really squashes the ridge, and the trough escapes and produces offshore... its potential, but a lot going on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like mostly rain in this area. Maybe an inch or two at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Not a bad place to be in this far out.. SE that is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I have low confidence about that one because it popped up first on an 18z run. Regardless for the first time in a long long long time, cold air in place, no need to hope for October 1987 type dynamic cooling or the fastest deepening post cold frontal secondary on record. Good call on the reinforcing clipper, not as strong on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 i still think this is the best setup we have season all season long, regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Good call on the reinforcing clipper, not as strong on 12z. the 12z gefs are a lot better with this clipper coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 i still think this is the best setup we have season all season long, regardless of what happens. Agree. Nothing guaranteed but we have a shot at a half decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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