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1/24 to 1/26 threat...


NaoPos

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i should post this since ray was so nice to illustrate the ratio aspect a day or two. The 6z gfs has about .1 for the area,granted doesn't seem much. If we look at the 6z gfs sounding shows ptw around -17. I think monday night's even had -20 with a 30:1 ratio. So the ratios would definitely be higher than normal 10-1

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Just my thoughts, don't shoot the messenger i think the coastal aspect is pretty much shot except for maybe coastal nj. I think we continue to see that northern stream energy trend a little stronger to the point we get close to or a partial phase combined with the overrunning brings a general 2-4 to the area with the possibility if a better phase if 3-6 but I would lean more 2-4 as if now. Don't shoot the messenger when all the 12z models show high cirrus with peaks of sun now lol.

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Agree with 1-3 at this point a Euro/GFS blend with good ratios

Yea I'm banking on an uptick in qpf around .2-.25 then with decent ratios the 2-4 verifies. Even though the 700mb temps may be close to Mondays event the omega in that region will probably lack unlike that enhanced band on Monday which had good omega.

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Fwiw, the nam is horrendous. Looks like last weeks MA solution.

you can see the differences between the 6zgfs and 12z nam. The 6z gfs is stronger with the northern stream energy and a better ridge out west. While the nam is lackluster in both departments. The more that northern stream digs the better it will get from here on out on runs.

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