SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not a clue how this got missed by someone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't believe YOU of all people posted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't believe YOU of all people posted that Its not even the 00Z run last night, its the 12Z from yesterday...the 00Z run I can only see til 72 hours, its certainly more juiced though at 72 than pretty much either American model was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Western system will come onshore tonight. Still some uncertainty until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i should post this since ray was so nice to illustrate the ratio aspect a day or two. The 6z gfs has about .1 for the area,granted doesn't seem much. If we look at the 6z gfs sounding shows ptw around -17. I think monday night's even had -20 with a 30:1 ratio. So the ratios would definitely be higher than normal 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just my thoughts, don't shoot the messenger i think the coastal aspect is pretty much shot except for maybe coastal nj. I think we continue to see that northern stream energy trend a little stronger to the point we get close to or a partial phase combined with the overrunning brings a general 2-4 to the area with the possibility if a better phase if 3-6 but I would lean more 2-4 as if now. Don't shoot the messenger when all the 12z models show high cirrus with peaks of sun now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That would basically be my call if I still forecasted weather. Maybe 1-3 would fit a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 at this point i'll take 2-4" to make cold feel better but looks like it will melt off by next week before cold returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Or will we sacrifice this event for some ZR ending as drizzle with the warm advection on Sunday night/Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Agree with 1-3 at this point a Euro/GFS blend with good ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No major differences on the NAM so far through 36...the energy no longer cut offs sharply as it did on the 00Z run and the northern disturbance is a nose more south but does not look significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Agree with 1-3 at this point a Euro/GFS blend with good ratios Yea I'm banking on an uptick in qpf around .2-.25 then with decent ratios the 2-4 verifies. Even though the 700mb temps may be close to Mondays event the omega in that region will probably lack unlike that enhanced band on Monday which had good omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Tonights clipper keeps looking better.for Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Fwiw, the nam is horrendous. Looks like last weeks MA solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Fwiw, the nam is horrendous. Looks like last weeks MA solution. Yeah looks like a terrible ice storm in NC/TN...maybe some snow into VA but DCA even looks dry so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm beginning to hope for the no snow solution. What's the use in getting 1-3 inches, just to have it melt completely away befire the next cold shot arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Fwiw, the nam is horrendous. Looks like last weeks MA solution. you can see the differences between the 6zgfs and 12z nam. The 6z gfs is stronger with the northern stream energy and a better ridge out west. While the nam is lackluster in both departments. The more that northern stream digs the better it will get from here on out on runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw here is the 12z rgem at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw here is the 12z rgem at hr 48 That has a slightly more robust northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why even talk about the nam unless it;s within a few hours it's consistently that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 northern stream continues to dig on 12z gfs better, raising the hgts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 continued increase in qpf on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS an easy 1-2". Not awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HR 66 GFS better than 1-2 for coastal. Some of us do live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Great call by tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 assuming you mean 12z gfs northern stream continues to dig on 12z euro better, raising the hgts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 assuming you mean 12z gfs yes sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 yes sorry We can hope, however, that you are being clairvoyant in what you will be reporting to us another couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't see the models at work but how much is the spread up to around ABE? many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I can't see the models at work but how much is the spread up to around ABE? many thanks! its over .1 so a 1-3 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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